Zimbabwe: 2007 till Mugabe resigns

[davidbfpo]

Carl asked:

What will happen when Bob dies? You guys are qualified to speculate and I am interested in what you think not only in Zim but the region. Also as it relates to Zim, what will happen when Mandela dies? (Added in last post). What do you think those thugs will do when Bob dies?

When President Mugabe dies, let us for the purpose of answering say it is tomorrow. The situation will be tense, ZANU-PF and the "barons" will retain power. If required with ruthlessness, which is now traditional and firmly embedded in Zimbabwe. More people will flee or attempt to do so (mainly to South Africa). Faced with the prospect of 'Chaos Country' heading south President Zuma has to decide: remain loyal to a dead man's legacy or apply pressure on the "barons". Others in the region will wait to see what happens. Today few of Zimbabwe's neighbours depend on it for resources, except Zambia for Kariba Dam hydro-electricity. Closing their borders is impractical.

The death of Nelson Mandela will be very different, "spin" aside many will miss him, at home and abroad. Will it affect Zimbabwe? I am sceptical, although it may help Zuma make a decision.

Stretching imagination and hope. The "barons" fail to retain regime loyalty and ZANU-PF collapses. Not exactly GDR or an 'Orange' Revolution - I that the Zimbabwean public will take to the streets in protest. A leader in exile returns and in the chaos takes control.

Ah, the dream is over and 'Bob' is alive.