Zimbabwe: 2007 till Mugabe resigns

[Tom Odom]

Carl asked:

When President Mugabe dies, let us for the purpose of answering say it is tomorrow. The situation will be tense, ZANU-PF and the "barons" will retain power. If required with ruthlessness, which is now traditional and firmly embedded in Zimbabwe. More people will flee or attempt to do so (mainly to South Africa). Faced with the prospect of 'Chaos Country' heading south President Zuma has to decide: remain loyal to a dead man's legacy or apply pressure on the "barons". Others in the region will wait to see what happens. Today few of Zimbabwe's neighbours depend on it for resources, except Zambia for Kariba Dam hydro-electricity. Closing their borders is impractical.

The death of Nelson Mandela will be very different, "spin" aside many will miss him, at home and abroad. Will it affect Zimbabwe? I am sceptical, although it may help Zuma make a decision.

Stretching imagination and hope. The "barons" fail to retain regime loyalty and ZANU-PF collapses. Not exactly GDR or an 'Orange' Revolution - I that the Zimbabwean public will take to the streets in protest. A leader in exile returns and in the chaos takes control.

Ah, the dream is over and 'Bob' is alive.

No(t) a bad scenario--the risk is of course that the leader is another Bob (or soon becomes one). But as to taking to the streets, a Romania-style event would be useful--as long as the right folks get stretched

Unfortunately I believe the barons will have long planned for this transition--choice one being to stay in power and choice two exile in style but only if forced.


Carl, no worries. I had to look up calumny.

Tom