BW,

Good and timely post. I'll try to provide some detailed thoughts later when I have some more time.

In my experience (EUCOM, CENTCOM), "strategic intelligence" at that level is closely tied to the strategic warning function, which is usually under-resourced. Most intel people are forced into current intelligence to support the crisis du jour, so don't have much opportunity to research and examine the things you list. If you haven't already, I recommend you go talk to the people (or person) in the strategic warning shop and see what they have to say.