The Search for Strategic Intelligence

[davidbfpo]

Strategic intelligence like other types of intelligence can be a "leap in the dark" and as long as those involved as consumers and providers understand that is a first. Some "insiders" even suggest educating the consumers, the politicians; hardly an easy task assuming agreement.

Is strategic intelligence 'Driving a car by looking out of the rear window only', a pertinent point made by an insider who looks ahead. We do need to think a lot harder.

The UK prides itself on the work of the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC, a central co-ordination function); see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_I...United_Kingdom) and the official site: http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/secu...committee.aspx . A ppt is on: http://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets...el_Goodman.pdf

Mirroring BW's comments a Whitehall "insider" recently commentedin a speech:

JIC was very bad at predicting the onset of crisis; it was very good at predicting the course of a crisis.

And called for the involvement of outsiders to get real innovation, citing the Double Cross counter-intelligence success in WW2 reliance on Oxbridge brain power. A lot depends on the method used to follow history; a better method was not events but the broad impact of technological advances e.g. radio and direction-finding.

UK intelligence historians often refer to the 1982 Nicoll Report as seminal in describing how faulty intelligence assessment is; not fully in the public domain, but this helps: http://www.essex.ac.uk/ecpr/events/g...ers/PP1729.pdf Behind a 'pay wall' is this: http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/con...ent=a782893438 which has a redacted copy of the report.

The role of analysts is covered by: https://www.cia.gov/library/center-f...in-the-uk.html

This point reminds me of the value given to HUMINT in the past thirty years has varied, often with a preference for other sources (SIGINT, IMINT etc). I have seen the use of low grade human sources almost disappear in LE, in preference use is made of the directed, paid informant on priority tasks.

Who would have thought the UK, let alone others, would have 9k troops in Afghanistan today? After all we left South Asia independent in 1947 and had kept out of Afghanistan as much as possible for a long time.

Judgement is what the consumer seeks in intelligence & warning and often that means saying what is going wrong. Judgement today depends on relationships, situational awareness, many other factors and not as most analysts I know prefer just information.