Sir, though I am in no way a blind follower or supporter of Daniel Pipes I feel a few comments are in order especially when I agree with a great many of your conclusions while disagreeing with many of your premises. I think it all boils down to a difference in thin versus thick description (a la Geertz).
1) I would agree in principle with your first point although we can, and I believe must, differ on the meaning of “sudden” as denoting a temporally imprecise period. “Sudden” does not, I do not think, refer to an “augenblick” type moment (and I think Pipes is clear in his article, if not explicitly so, that he is aware of that). Time within this context is very relative and as you rightly point out warning indicators are usually present. However, in terms of “signal strength” warning indicators regarding individuals such as Hasan at Ft. Hood are immeasurably “weaker” than those of organised groups whose signal strength, if only from the volume and density of their communications alone and the number of active nodes involved, is very much greater and thus appears with greater relief on our screens (as it were). Similarly, the build-up or mobilisation phase of organised groups may involve a period of months during which such mobilisation can indicate intentions; individuals on the other hand may need only a few hours. Such individuals, unless suffering from extreme psychological dissonance, must have something, some background set of habits or conditioned responses which facilitate their “triggering” in the absence of group induced motivation. The individual’s actions, however, must still be seen a part of a wider and more normatively permissive background. When you say MOST Muslims are unlikely to suffer from SJS in the future I wonder how you know who they are and how you can be so certain they won’t; no doubt similar questions are being asked about the former pro-American, naturalised, and culturally assimilated Hasan by his superiors in the US Army.
2) I find your second point a confusing combination of assertions, many of which are contradictory. Despite you professed intentions I take your point to be that Islam may not be a sufficient cause but it is most certainly a necessary one (in this I agree). On the one hand you claim that it is misfits or loners who are seduced into ultra-piety and then over-emphasise certain doctrines (perhaps out of ignorance of contexts, though this is debateable) and there thereby led to violence. But then OTOH you claim that the ‘turn towards orthodoxy’, i.e., the adherence to Islam, is by itself a warning indicator given Islam’s “subtext” of conflict against non-believers (which I believe is the central leitmotiv of the Religion of Submission rather than a subtext). Thirdly, I see a conflation between what you describe as differences between medieval and modern Islamic theology and the “mainstream” who have brought conflict to the centre of Islam rather than the fringe as in other unspecified religions. Yet conflict is at the centre of Islam; the phrase oqatiloo fee sabili alehi (Kill in the path of Allah) appears ad nauseam in the Quran. The centrality of warfare to Islam is attested by even a cursory reading of the majority of Mohammed’s hadeeth. Furthermore, I don’t quite see how a totalistic worldview that entitles itself Islam or, Subit! in literal English translation, can be anything other than conflict prone at its heart. We may quibble over just what Submit! means but ultimately, like Frank Zappa, I hold grave fears about any system that seeks to put men on their knees (if that’s what you mean by Islamophobe then you can count me as phobic). Neither do I see the injunction regarding Jihad as medieval only. They are part and parcel of Islam. The Sharia, the Quran and the Hadeeth are, Islamically speaking, universal timeless Truths. The injunctions are thereby not applicable to one historical circumstance but for all time. See also the comments to the end of the artile on the Kings of War website (here though in a different context) (http://kingsofwar.wordpress.com/2009...cky-not-stuck/).
3) I totally agree. Multiculturalism, political correctness and value plurality have most certainly hindered rather than facilitated proper dialogue on this issue. One only needs to look at the Gert Wilder’s case in the UK
4) I would not describe Daniel Pipes as an Islamophobe but you are correct in pointing out the veracity of his analyses. When it comes to his supposed “pro-zionism” (his pro-Israel position is actually much more subtle) all I have to say is that it doesn’t detract from his comments regarding Islam. When Churchill allied himself with Stalin against Hitler it was not because he was pro-communist. I don’t personally feel that (pro-Israeli sentiment) to be a sin either; in today’s climate Israel could do with all the friends she gets in the balance of (moral) power. As for the Israeli-Palestinian issue it’s not my problem and neither is it anyone else’s but theirs (too many cooks and all that). However, again in reference to 2) above, I am confused with regards to the distinction you make between medieval and modern Islam. A few years ago one of the Imams at Al-Azhar in Egypt issued a fatwa requiring women to breast feed their male colleagues! In doing so working women would become nursing mothers to their male colleagues and thereby (supposedly) eliminate the risk of zinna (unlawful sexual intercourse). How’s that for a modern resolution of Islam’s take of women in the workplace?
5) I agree that common sense is a valuable guide to action (see Edmund Burke on prejudice) but I cannot understand the point made about Saudi spokesmen. IMO it is not the messenger but the message that constitutes the COG here. The Saudis, or bin Laden for that matter, would never be able to mobilise Muslims if there were not already pre-existing norms or habits or predispositions which they could use for that purpose. Wahhabi’s, deobandis or whatever sect may be flavour of the month are not innovating ideologists (to borrow a phrase from Quentin Skinner), they are not subverting a set of ideas and turning them inside out into something new, they are merely quoting scripture, they are merely taking medieval/mainstream/modern Islam at its word. And therein lies the rub. On a different note what exactly is a “secular” Muslim? Did Hasan qualify (prior to the other day’s events)?
6) It is precisely because common sense has failed that we are in the mess we are.
7). Agreed, Nutcases cannot be stopped beforehand but only when they act alone. A nutcase is an individual who, like the chap (Jason Rodrigez?) who shot people in Orlando (after the Ft. Hood incident), provide virtually no warning indicators (then again, in a country where firearms are freely available that would be tough). OTOH the risk/threat to society is qualitatively different with or without Muslims. Why? Because as you rightly point out nutcases are nutcases. Their grievance is personal, local and idiosyncratic. Muslim individuals (something of a semantic oxymoron) are the reverse. Their issues are social (“Muslim vs Kafir”), global (the Muslim as member of the Ummah/Dar al-Islam) and cultural (“the universal laws of Muslim conduct vs local temporal/secular laws”). That said, being a Muslim isn’t a sufficient cause (for alarm) but it most definitely is a necessary one when it comes to preparing for, countering and negating Islamic violence. After all when profiling threats we must ask who is most susceptible to violence of that kind...the individual with a local grievance or a Muslim whose value-system is normatively permissive (if not encouraging/glorifying) in its advocating of violence against the Kafir? The question we must ask is would Hasan (without pre-empting the official inquiry), or for that matter John Muhammed (Beltway sniper), Hasan Abujihad (USS Benfold espionage case), Asan Akbar (101st Airborne Div, Kuwait grenade incident) , done what they did had they not been Muslims?
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