hey Mike,

From my understanding of Mao, guerrila is a phase conducted by partisans or militias. It is very much a leninist approach of war: a small groups take the lead in the name of the people and conduct propaganda operation (including violent ones). At this stage, in Mao approach, you conduct guerrilla operations tagetting symbols and disrupt the opponent supply. Like in Indochina, you break the supply and communication lines and conquiere country side.
Then you go for civil war: a conventional fight between 2 conventional armies. Mao end up in a very conventional form of war, as during China conquest by the communist after the long walk (grande marche). Just like the final stage against the Kuomongtang.

Concerning stabilization and what leads to insurgencies, I may comme with the following reading recommendations:
- Francis Fukuyama, State Building
- Foucault about bio power and panoptic
- Robert Chambers and all the economist of the theory of action (in economic development).

The last ones are not so much useful to anticipate but rather to evaluate the social processes. You also have to be familiar with Rostow as it is the starting point for economic development (take off and linear development theory).

Africa is a good example to understand most of the bad effects that will lead to a deterioration of your efforts... I would recommend:
- The criminalization of the state in Africa, jean-Francois Bayart, Stephen Ellis, Beatrice Hibou.

I like very much criminalization of the state as it gives a real good base to picture all the side effects that most of new national governments are putting in place when artificially (out of the rule of law and democratic way) put in power.