I like descriptive models as well, although my historical background makes me somewhat wary of predictive models.
I've always considered criminal activity of the sort we were discussing as a tactic. Organized crime refers more to the group that is using the tactic, and the fact that it has become their preferred tactic (indeed, possibly their main method of operations). What got me interested in this was the blanket use of the word "terrorist," often with a total ignorance of anything that came before Sept. 11. Trans-national insurgent groups are certainly vulnerable to COIN, and can be defeated by ideas. In my view, the hardline terrorist group is pretty immune to this approach, especially once they've entered their third generation of recruits. You may be able to isolate them from their recruiting sources, but the violence they cloak with ideological labels will normally attract more from other places.
When you face a mix of TNI and TGs (terrorist groups), targeting the TNI for COIN is certainly the way to go. TGs can use the goals of TNIs as a cloak for their activities, but if the TNI is defeated or changes its basic goals the TG is exposed.
Like I said, my framework is historical and not based in anthropology. The techniques are somewhat different. Not to say either is better, mind...just different.
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