South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[M-A Lagrange]

Stan,

I will not criticise MSF, I'm a former MSF and the saved me when I had malaria in lost place in DRC but...
They do not really know how to communicate. I believe we read the same article and I have to agree with them. But they are too often focused on the great western evil powers. They started to have a teeth against China, I have to recognise. But the Maoist heritage from Kouchner is heavy to carry and they have difficulties to throw it away.

It makes months I am trying to get them in a lost part of South Sudan where there is no health, no government, no NGO, nothing.
And they came to make a surgery assessment...
Sometimes, it's difficult to get them out of the glamorous spots. But as all the others, they need money and 2010 will be difficult.
Saying so, they did and are doing great job in all the worst places where LRA is or Jongley.
I am surprised MSF-USA (doctor without borders) did not publish it in english. But if MSF is a big familly, like in all families, they are not all good friends.

[M-A Lagrange]

Elections:

Sudan’s NCP hints at possibility of alliance with SPLM in elections

The Sudanese ruling National Congress Party (NCP) expressed openness to the idea of an alliance with its rival representing the South in the upcoming April elections, a senior official said today. The presidential assistant and deputy NCP chairman Nafie Ali Nafie, speaking at a press conference today affirmed that his party is committed to holding the elections as scheduled. Nafie stressed that the NCP will accept the choice of the people irrespective of the outcome, hinting to the possibility of alliance with Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) “in light of the keenness of both sides to implement of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and maintaining the unity”.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33764

Gration calls on EU to provide monitors, funds for Sudan voteMajor General (Ret.) Scott Gration, the US presidential envoy to Sudan, in a meeting with the press today called on the European Union to send some 300 elections monitors to Sudan in time for the April nationwide elections.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33749

The push for Sudan Unity is stronger and stronger from US. The EU seems to be keen to pay and control it but up to which extend?
The US strategy to let the former colonial powers deal with local indirectly terror linked issues in Africa seems to be still on the run.
But I cannot see EU doing it for free.
South Sudan agriculture and Rwanda/Uganda non interference in DRC against oil? Seems to be a loose deal.
May be EU expect AFRICOM to become the gendarme de l’Afrique in its place?

Any ways, official candidate list from NCP for North has come out. The one for South is expected in the coming days.

NCP Deputy Head for organizational affairs Dr. Nafei Ali Nafei said that his party has choosen the following:-
Fathi Khalil for the Northern State, Al-Hadi Abdullah for River Nile, Dr. Abdul Rahman Al-Khidir for Khartoum, Al-Zubeir Basher Taha for Al-Jazeera, Ahmed Abbas for Sennar, Ahmed Karemeno for Blue Nile, Karamallah Abbass for Gedarif, Mohammed Yousif Adam for Kassala, Mohammed Tahir Aila for the Red Sea, Yousif Al-Shenbali for White Nile, Faisal Hassan for Northern Kordofan, Ahmed Haroun for Southern Kordofan, Mohammed Yousif Kibir for Northern Darfur, Abdul Hamid Kasha for Southern Darfur and Jaafar Abdul Hakem for Western Darfur.

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=53050

and the Chinese:

Sudan and China discuss expansion of Khartoum refinery
Sudan’s oil minister Al-Zubair Ahmed Al-Hassan was in China for talks on Khartoum refinery expansion, the official news agency SUNA reported today.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33765

Seems that Sudan is the new wild wild west of Africa those days. I wonder how that ménage a 3 (or more) between US, Russia and China will turn. Chinese are new players but strong ones with heavy arguments.

And this link on Sudan from our Quebecois friends:

General link on Sudan and UNMIS from University of Montreal
http://operationspaix.net/spip.php?p...=132&date=2010

A bit official but nice stuff on this site.

[negotiator6]

Nuba Mountain, South Kordafan State: 2002
Juba, Sudan 2007-08

All the comments are generally exactly correct. The situation in Sudan was once defined by one of the locals as similar to an onion; peel off one layer and you find another layer of discord, tribalism and conflict.

I was at the celebration of the opening of the SPLA HQ in 2008. President of GOSS Kiir was the speaker; most in the SPLA/M understand the aspirations of John Garang was for a united Sudan; but, what from what I understand Kirr will support an independent Southern Sudan.

This split within the "party" is the foundation for armed conflict within the tribes in the South, accurately defined as the Dinka and Neuer tribes. I might add, the Vice President of GOSS is Neuer.

The entire foundation is based on oil. The Abeyei region in the along the disputed north-south "border" is where the "money is". Even, if the south could secure that region, the oil pipeline runs north past Khartom to the Port of Sudan. The Nuba Mountains is adjacent to the pipeline and under the control of the SPLA..I was in the mountains with the 5th SPLA Front in 2002 commanded by Ismael Karmis..the governor was Abdul Azziz (he remains governor today of South Kordafar State). The SPLA would attack the pipeline daily interrupting the flow. That said, the cease fire agreement signed in late 2001 just for Nuba Mountains was designed to lay the ground work for the CPA and to stop all military action against the pipeline. Nuba Mountains actually is located in the "north"..and as such, was a critical component to the CPA signed in January of 2005.

Should the south "vote" to succeed from Sudan forming a new African state..they would have no access to ports, no pipeline, no all weather roads and surrounded by countries which may or may not support a future Southern Sudanese state (Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, DRC)

Other issues I have personal experience includes the UN initiative at DDR..De-mining, Disarm and Re-Integration (the most difficult part).

The UN's ability to organize a "true" election, plus all the other critical components is marginal at best.

And, lastly...the LRA..I absolutely agree..these guys must be killed or captured.

Sudan will be a struggle for many years to come. It was one hell of an experience....

RH

Other travels include SE Afgh/2003 and Iraq/2005..plus the Balkan Wars

[M-A Lagrange]

I was at the celebration of the opening of the SPLA HQ in 2008. President of GOSS Kiir was the speaker; most in the SPLA/M understand the aspirations of John Garang was for a united Sudan; but, what from what I understand Kirr will support an independent Southern Sudan.

As I understand it, that is what Museweny wanted and effectively not Garang. But Garang is dead. So the vision of a unified Sudan with 2 sub states will not be.

The entire foundation is based on oil.

True and not. The deep roots of the second Sudan civil war can be also found in the first civil war and in the pastoralist culture that is shared by all ethnical groups from North to South Sudan. I was in Chad in 2005 and it was the same #### about land, water and cows. The oil question was flying much too high for the average fighter.

The situation in Sudan was once defined by one of the locals as similar to an onion; peel off one layer and you find another layer of discord, tribalism and conflict

You read my mind.

This split within the "party" is the foundation for armed conflict within the tribes in the South, accurately defined as the Dinka and Neuer tribes. I might add, the Vice President of GOSS is Neuer.

If only you had just Neuer and Dinka... But you forget the Toposa, the Murule, the I do not know what...
What kills that country, part from actually in power SPLA is the marriage bride. As long as a young guy cannot give 200 cows, at least, he is not a man. And the elders will mocke him and he will never have any chances to have a place in the society. So he takes an AK and goes for cattle raiding. And greedy politicians (may be stupid) take advantage of it rather than trying to solve the problem.

Anyways, welcome to comment, analyse and counter analyse South Sudan unfinished war.

M-A

[M-A Lagrange]

Apparently not every body’s happy with the previous batch of SPLA/, sorry SPLM/A, in charge:

E. Equatoria SPLM Governorship Election Results must not be overturned by the Political Bureau

January 13, 2010 — SPLM contest for the post of Governorship in the state has been won convincingly by Comrade Louis Lobong Lojore against the incumbent Brig. Aloysius Ejotuk Emor in a contest widely believed to be transparent and fair. Comrade Louis not only beat Comrade Aloysius hand down (21 votes for Louis and 4 votes for Aloysius) but his overwhelming victory sends a strong message to Juba that people voice is a voice of God and if they determine, time or money can’t stop their march. The ball is now with the SPLM Bureau to clear Comrade Louis Lololomoe Aribokinyang without any delay or manipulation!
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33776

Lakes nominations finalized for election – Awet not chosen for governor

January 12, 2010 (RUMBEK) — The Lakes State Electoral College Committee Chairman Abraham Mayen Kuc has officially announced the SPLM candidates nominated for the post of governor and for the geographical constituences in the April 2010 nationwide election. The incumbent governor, Daniel Awet Akot, was not chosen to stand for the post.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33771

What is really interesting is not who is chosen (it does have its importance) but the on going processes of questioning actual in power former SPLA commanders capacity to rule and administrate properly the State they were given.

And for those who are nominated but already in place:

Kiir will not step down as army chief if nominated for presidential election

An official of the semi-autonomous Southern Sudan has ruled out any possibility of General Salva Kiir Mayardit stepping down from the army even if he is nominated as SPLM candidate for presidency.
The minister for Presidential Affairs, Dr. Luka Biong Deng, who is a close aide to Kiir on Wednesday, said Kiir’s candidacy would not need him to step down as commander-in-chief.
He however admitted that presently the SPLA Act states that no member of the SPLA can participate in political activities but said there will be decisions made within the regulations of southern Sudan.
The Southern Sudan interim constitution is however silent about what the aspirant candidates for political positions, while actively serving in the army, should comply with during elections.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33778

Salva Kiir formally nominated for presidency in South Sudan
The Political Bureau of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) has announced the incumbent chairman of the party, General Salva Kiir Mayardit, as the candidate for South Sudan presidency.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33788


Smells like if I loose I still can make a coup… The battle between late Garang supporters and Kiir is raging on.
Anyway, it also addresses the issue of constitution design for post conflict or conflict ending contexts.
The idea to oblige candidates to resign from their positions inside State and South Government was quite a smart move. I believe the intension was to avoid exactly what Kiir is doing. And in fact, it works in most of the States, as SPLM has nominated mainly non governors to run for elections, in order to preserve SPLM control on administration.
On the other hand you have a breakdown of continuity and a dangerous State vacancy if the actual governors do run for elections as independents (as they will in many places).
I believe there are no perfect systems. A system that would forbid anyone already in place to run for elections would not be considered as fair.

Simple questions and complex answers, as usual with Nation Building.

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan electoral board warns Salva Kiir to resign from his military position

The Sudan’s National Elections Commission (NEC) has sent a warning letter to the semi-autonomous Southern Sudan President and the region’s presidential candidate, General Salva Kiir Mayardit, to relinquish his military post in order to qualify to run for the upcoming April 2010 elections.
NEC is a national legal body established by law in 2008 in accordance with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the Interim Constitution of Sudan, 2005.
It is charged with the responsibility to process and oversee the conduct of the post-war general elections during the interim period and has established branches at Southern Sudan and states levels.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33807
It's a move, but may be not the strongest one.

Much more awaited, even if the results was known, SPLM-DC announced its candidate:

Lam Akol runs for presidency in South Sudan
The former Sudanese foreign and head of the Sudan People Liberation Movement for Democratic Change (SPLM-DC) Lam Akol will run for the post of South Sudan president, according to a statement released by his office.
Akol was a leading figure in the legacy SPLM party but his close ties to the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) led by president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir has alienated his colleagues at the ex-Southern rebel group.
Akol has insisted at the time that the SPLM partnership with the NCP is particularly valuable and also campaigned in favor of the Sudanese President after the issuance by the International criminal Court of an arrest warrant against him.
The alliance expressed support to Bashir candidacy for president of the country.
“President Al Bashir is the only person to sign working peace agreement in Southern Sudan, Darfur, and the Eastern Region….. El Bashir was also credited with stopping wars and the bloodshed which had plagued the nation for so long. Also the inclusive administration instituted by President Al Bashir already is a good step for political pluralism and social and cultural diversity. Mr. Bashir is the very one now working to implement democratic transformation and as it was embodied in the interim Constitution of the country and the CPA and he should be given the chance to continue with this”.
“Bashir has to be given the chance to complete the implementation of the CPA and the other agreement which he had signed while serving current term. Many challenges remain and the alliance of Southern Political partied believes it is only Al Bashir who can overcame the challenges that remain in implementing the peace agreements”.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33797


Now, the real question is being asked. And it shows how much SPLM is not comfortable with those elections.

Should Dr. Lam be allowed to campaign in South Sudan?

In the SPLM-DC nomination statement, Gurtong reports the Secretary of SPLM-DC Charles Kisanga as saying that “there have been big complains and protests from the members of the Alliance of Southern Sudan political parties operating in the Southern Sudan, that they had not been able to file candidates for many constituencies due to intimidation, bullying and arrests by SPLM security forces.” What Mr. Kisanga means by “SPLM security forces” is not clear.

However, this statement raises the question of whether Dr. Lam Akol will be free to campaign in South Sudan against Gen. Kiir or not. South Sudan Minister of Cabinet Affairs Dr. Luka Manoja instructed the Governors of ten states in South Sudan last year to allow all political parties, except SPLM-DC, in the South to conduct their activities freely. SPLM allegedly accused SPLM-DC of being the armed resistance movement that does not qualify to be a political party.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33804

I love the subtile differenciation between SPLM and SPLM-DC. As far as I know, SPLM is the political wing of a rebelion militia (well the agregate of it).
Transition from a military organization to a political one is always a challenge for rebels in Nation Building. South America experiences tend to show that such organizations are not capable to do it.
Other African experiences tend to show that the transition is only in surface (see what happened in Zimbabwe).
In South Sudan, the difference pointed out by Sufferedbeetle between State Building and Nation Building takes all its sense. Those elections are the first step to the referendum which will be a pure Nation Building exercise. Those elections are a State building exercise per definition but also a Nation Building exercise in the sense that South (At least SPLM/A) will have to reveal its true face.
Is SPLM/A are Nation representative machine or just a militia gang as too many others? Will SPLM/A accept to build a Nation with all its political diversities and accept to be challenged?
Will South be able to build its future out of the war?
Accepting SPLM-DC campaign will be the proof that SPLM can live without Khartoum. That South Sudan as a Nation is something that does exist further than the "my hamster grazing rights" claim or policy (to use Wilf definition).
The main danger in Nation Building is to build a fake apparatus that will just hide the real roots of the tensions. The temptation is high to just place people you have the habit to deal with and not address the real questions. Stabilization in Nation Building is not just addressing the on going small scale conflicts but it's also building a process that allows to prevent up coming conflicts.

[M-A Lagrange]

First the next episode of the elections and Salva Kiir legal prblems:

Gen. Salva Kiir should relinquish his military position

The SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum was quoted by a local newspaper, The Juba Post, as saying that his party’s chairman will step down from being the army chief as the law requires.
Amum also added that the party’s candidate for the position of the President at the national level, Yasir Saeed Arman, will also resign from his current position as party’s Deputy Secretary General for Northern Sector and focus on the presidential campaigns.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33843

The list of the candidates for South Sudan:

Uper Nile: Simon Kun Puoc (SPLM); NO (NCP)

Unity: Taban Deng (SPLM); Paul Leli (NCP)

Warrap: Nyandeng Malek Deliec (SPLM); Mayur Akeli (NCP)

Jonglei: Kuol Manyang Juuk (SPLM); Josepgh Dower Jacob (NCP)

Eastern Equatoria: Louis Lobong Lojore (SPLM); Andalla Albert (NCP)

Central Equatoria: Clement Wani Konga (SPLM);James Luro (NCP)

Lakes: Chol Tong Mayay (SPLM); Thomas Pan Melik (NCP)

Northern Bahr El-Ghazal: Paul Malong Awan (SPLM); Joseph Ajwang (NCP)

Western Bahr El-Ghazal: Rizig Zakaria Hassan (SPLM); Steven Musa (NCP)
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33840

Interresting but not suprising, NCP is not even trying in Upper Nile. Must say that Malakal is not really a pro NCP place. In 2009 combats between former SAF militia lead by Gabriel Tang and SPLA killed 50 and wounded 100. In 2006 combats between the same killed more than 100.
But that was hard breach of the CPA by the way…

Then the next episode of China takes over the world and becomes a Western like power:

China may send observers for Sudan’s April election

Abdalla Ahmed Abdalla, Deputy Chairman of the National Election Commission, met recently with the Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China Li Chengwen. They discussed "preparations for arrival of a Chinese delegation to participate in the monitoring of the coming elections in Sudan," according to the official Sudan News Agency (SUNA).

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33833

Please welcome the State building "a la chinoise". Elections are fake? So let's go! I love when we basically are morally shooting our selves in the foot and end up with a brain damage!

[M-A Lagrange]

US Congress reps. seek to commemorate Sudan’s CPA

January 20, 2010 (WASHINGTON) — Three Republican congressmen introduced a resolution in the US House of Representatives today to belatedly recognize the fifth anniversary of the signing of Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and call for "urgent and aggressive actions to establish peace in all regions of Sudan."

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33854

I do not know what they call an aggressive action to establish peace in all region of Sudan. Few days ago, AFRICOM was optimist about the elections and USA Special Envoy also. As all the NGOs covering the elections (Carter Centre… ) also as well as the electoral observers. Even China decided to enter in the dance…
The real question is not peace between North and South. Peace as the absence of war is there. Peace as Spinoza describes it… It's another subject.

In fact it's not the election and the insecurity that such exercise brings with him which is the problem. The problem is far much simple. The main problematic in South Sudan nowadays is economical.
Yes the Nuer and the Dinka are fighting… On power and oil… In Warrap or Jonglei…
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/...nt&rc=1&cc=sdn

But average violence is due to poverty. In Yambio what started the fire last week is just the delay in payment for students' performance incentives during CPA anniversary.

Now, let's have a look at the complex dance of the elections:

SPLM candidate vows to work for Sudan’s unity
In a press conference held at the SPLM premises after his arrival to Khartoum and an important reception by supporters, Arman vowed to work for voluntary unity between the north and the south. He also said he would present a political program that the south fought for.
Arman further described his candidacy for the presidency as a "gift" from the south to the north and a greeting to the west and center. He further added that his candidacy restores confidence and rehabilitates the North-South relations.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33866

Kiir’s presidential advisor declares independent candidacy for governorship

Alfred Lado Gore, a veteran politician and advisor to President Salva Kiir Mayardit on Diplomatic Affairs on Thursday declared his intention to run for the post of governor for Central Equatoria state as an independent candidate.
Gore’s nomination was turned down last week by the party’s highest political organ, the SPLM Political Bureau, in favor of the incumbent governor Maj. General Clement Wani Konga.
He sounded confident, saying he enjoys popularity among the citizens of Central Equatoria state and criticized the Political Bureau for taking an “unpopular decision among the people” during the selection exercise. . He further explained that he took the decision to contest independently because of “popular demand” on him among the people of Central Equatoria state.
The SPLM official said he would not leave his party but work to maintain its popularity in the state by bringing on board his supporters.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33863

The guy is resigning from his job. At the best moment, South Sudan just do not need a wise guy for diplomacy right now…
Already Salva Kiir is facing internal opposition inside SPLM as the line at national level is Unity and the line at South Sudan level (His line) is independence. And now key people are running independent…
To be frank, this is what happens when in the name of peace, you put every body in the same box and say now you are all friends and you gonna work it out.
Basically there are 2 different approach. The South Sudan one and the DRC one.
In South Sudan, all opponent of North were put in a box called SPLM to ease State building job and avoid civil war (what a result on the last one!). I'll call it the all=1 approach.
In DRC, they ended up with 4 vice presidents and 1 president the 4+1 approach.

I just do not know how this will end up but the 4+1 approach had the advantage to be more "democracy like" than the all=1 approach. Not that DRC is a stunning success, far from it, but at least elections preparation was less messy and civil war was limited to elections results publication.
It's also the problem of having an international community who's taking side unilaterally not for the "good guys" but against the "bad guys".
I mean, if we really want State building to work out and end up with Weberian States supported by a strong administration and promoting Democracy (Here I put a "D" on purpose), the enemy of my enemy is my friend strategy is just too limited.
And let's make a stupid comment: The 4+1 is culturally more accurate most of the time. Even it creates a Hydra which is less easy to manage than the All=1 Chimera.

But let's talk about future (?)

UN chief urges Sudanese to discuss post-referendum arrangements
January 22, 2010 (NEW YORK) — UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon urged the Sudanese parties of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) to address the post referendum arrangements to shun war.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33876

Ah… ??? shouldn't we be looking at post elections first.
As JMM says: let's shoot the 25 m target first. But I believe that it's preventive (even preemptive) action.

Step by step gentlemen please. The fubar potential is already there.


And finally the "So Smart" move from Khartoum:

Sudan revokes licenses of 26 aid groups in Darfur, warns dozen others

The following groups have their licenses cancelled according to the decree; 1- Prospect Sudan 2- Counterpart International 3- Feed the Children 4- Food for the Hungry 5- Safe Harbor 6- The Halo Trust 7- Right to Play 8- Air Serve 9- Mercy International 10- Global Peace Mission 11- Population Media Centre 12- Sudanese International Development and Relief Association (SIDRA) 13- Royal Dutch Aid 14- Canadian Association for African Development 15- SPEG- Holland 16- Norwegian League for Disabled 17- African Association for Development 18- Health Assistance for Children (HAFC) 19- Nabata Charitable Foundation 20- Impact 21- Cins- Italy 22- Ulfa Aid 23- Joint Projects Organization 24- Arabic Centre for Immigrant Labors 25- Tomp/Germany 26- Human Relief and Peace.

The second set of organizations received an unspecified warning to adjust status in accordance with the law but no details were furnished. They include Stromme Foundation 2. Veterinaraires Sans Forntieres- Germany 3. Planned Parenthood 4. (International Centre for Agricultural Research in Dry Area(ICARDA 5. Deniz Feneri 6. International Blue Crescent Relief 7. Handicap International 8. (Education Action International (Former was University Services Org 9. Movimondo 10. Sudanese Mothers for Peace 11. Panos Sudan 12. Eritrean Islamic Relief 13. One Earth.

A humanitarian war crime to come?
Please have a look at that threat: Humanitarian action: a Just action?

M-A

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan’s peace partners failed to reach agreement over parliamentary seats

SPLM wanted more seats for the South in the National Assembly in order to make it possible to block any future attempt to amend the constitution by the elected national parliament which might affect the gains of the CPA in the South or the conduct of referendum itself.
Southern Sudan officials have however observed that NCP had become more intransigent after learning that the SPLM had distanced itself from forging an alliance with it during the upcoming April elections.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33906

When two liars are accusing each others:

Khartoum paper prints ‘nonsense’ on Blue Nile troop build-up, says SPLA

January 25, 2010 (RUMBEK) – The Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) Official Spokesman, Maj-Gen. Kuol Deim Kuol, today denied that the South Sudan army is building up forces in Blue Nile State. He was responding to a news article printed in Akhir Lahza.
"This is all nonsense," said the SPLA spokesman in reply. "SPLA is not present in Blue Nile, all our troop are in Northern Upper Nile at Gupa — you see Sudan Armed Forces’s problem is that they mix up borders, and the fact is that the border is not demarcated."
He suggested the problem was perhaps a matter of border demarcation and called upon the Khartoum government to demarcate the borders. "Where is the border between Upper Nile state and Blue Nile state demarcated?" he asked.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33907

I love that! South Sudan is basically a country with moving borders. The border in the South is being discussed. The border in the North also. Wait, they also are negociating for the border with Ethiopia…
The base of a Nation is… A Land, People and an army? Well I guess they have the people, the army but are still missing the Land. At least the limits of their Land.

But North is not in rest about lies…

Sudan rejects US allegations of masterminding weapons flow to South

“We heard today from the U.N. that it is not just small arms but some heavier munitions that seem to be flowing in,” Rice said. “We weren’t given specifics on that. But we have seen, in the violence that is taking place in the South, a higher degree of sophistication and lethality of the weapons employed, and that’s a source of concern”.
The American official said that Washington believed some of the weapons were coming from northern Sudan.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33929

Some are also coming from other places, that's for sure. But saying that North are not supplying weapons to the South… Between some and all there is a difference. Just like between some and none.

The elections: going officially fake?

NCP endorses Kiir for South Sudan presidency, calls on SPLM to reciprocate

The NCP’s presidential adviser Ali Tamim Fartak told Reuters that the decision not to field a candidate for president of the south, which will vote on January 9, 2011 on independence, was to “maintain a good partnership” with the SPLM.
“And we hope the SPLM will do the same by withdrawing their candidate for the president of the republic,” Fartak said.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33928

Truth is also that in many places, NCP, like any other parties, except SPLM, has not been able to register its candidates. For unknown reasons they did not have the paper work…
The elections can be fair and transparent, if there is only one candidate for each post…

This really questions the concept of elections in post conflict countries. Especially if there is a possibility to end up the conflict just by splitting the place in several pieces.
Not that union is really an option actually but somehow, it should be impossible to come to such end.

We are clearly in a Nation destructuration process now. And it has been endorsed by both parties.

But while China is trying to be democratic… India is not loosing its objective:

Sudan, India discuss energetic cooperation

Indian Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, Shri Murli Deora arrived yesterday to Khartoum met today with his Sudanese counterpart Al-Zubair Ahmed Al-Hassan, to review progress on the existing projects and discuss ways to expand it.
ONGC’s overseas arm of the state-owned ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) has a 24.125 per cent stake in Sudan’s Block 5A. OVL also has a 25 per cent stake in Sudan’s Greater Nile Oil Project (Block 1, 2 and 4), which produces 280,000 bpd.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33910

War among the SPLM: when the party is fighting among its people

SPLM warns against contesting as independent candidates

The Chairman of the SPLM Youth League and member of the party’s Political Bureau, Akol Paul Kordit, announced on Tuesday that the party would not allow any of its members to stand as independent candidates.
Three senior officials of the party have officially declared their independent candidacy for governorship. These include Southern Sudan President’s advisor on Diplomatic Affairs, Alfred Lado Gore for Central Equatoria state, the state minister of Energy and Mining in the Government of National Unity, Angelina Jany Teny for Unity state and the incumbent governor of Eastern Equatoria state, Aloysius Emor Ojetuk.
Jonglei state was also reported to have been processing for an independent candidacy for governorship while many others across the region considered contesting for parliamentary seats as independent candidates.
There are growing fears in the SPLM leadership that many of the candidates nominated by the Political Bureau in Juba may lose elections to independent party candidates who were initially nominated by the people and the Electoral Colleges in the states, but dropped by the Bureau.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33916

SPLM is falling in the old one party trappe. We are supporting the construction of an African China like both in South and North. Well, Uganda and Rwanda are the model for South and they are not really democratically open. Sometimes, I really wonder if we do have a memory. Enlightened dictatorship were the failed solution of the 70th. Now we are building sustainable dictatorship... Could someone explain me what is the difference?

[M-A Lagrange]

First of all, some quick comments on the AU meeting and the Sudan question:

[

B]Jean Ping redoute le chaos au Soudan
[/B]Est ce que l’indépendance du sud Soudan ne va pas amener les autres acteurs au Darfour et ailleurs à demander comme le Sud Soudan une indépendance qu’il ne demande pas aujourd’hui etc etc. Alors si ce scenario catastrophe qui j’espère n’arrivera pas se produit alors nous sommes partis dans une situation de chaos.
http://www.gaboneco.com/show_article.php?IDActu=16751

As usual, Mr Ping is asking the million dollars question: what would be the consequences of South Sudan independence on the Darfur conflict?
Will Sudan become an African Poland? Basically, a never ending source of conflicts in the future. Looking at European History shows quickly that splitting a country is several pieces just does not work.
CPA was meant to bring peace but partiction, especially as South is not capable to administrate itself, is a trigger puller "en puissance".

Le Kenya s'engage à la reconstruction du Sud Soudan
http://www.casafree.com/modules/news...?storyid=42560

Un projet ferroviaire relancé au Sud
Costello Garang Ring Lual, conseiller spécial du président du Sud Soudan, est parvenu à intéresser une firme américaine au projet ferroviaire entre Juba et Tororo.
http://www.africaintelligence.fr/LOI...9840-ART-login

Like in the Wild Wild West, civilization comes with the train? It looks like a bad remake of a Sergio Leones film. But what are the other options?
Developing transport in South Sudan is vital for the economy. But the real question is linking what with who?
Train is may be the best idea for macro development, but the real challenge is at micro level. Yes South Sudan needs a big communication way to export the oil (Not refined in South by the way) but what South needs first is real roads to link cities together. What is the use to put efforts on agriculture if the targeted market is export? Once again, the logic of State Building is driven by the necessity to build the centralized administration apparatus seen as the key to stability. But the best key for stability is first to have a self sufficient country. As long as South will depend on imports for basic food: the conflict possibility will be there.
The people… Big heads seems to always forget that part of the Clausewitz trinity: the people. Elections do not keep quiet the people as efficiently as a full belly… State Building needs a major reform and needs to look at the people as THE KEY actor rather than a ex nihilo empowered intelligencia and elite which get its legitimacy from international economical and political interest rather than from popular legitimacy. David Kilcullen was already pointing this bias several years ago…

Sudan/Chad: almost 100 days of ordeal for abducted staff members Gauthier Lefèvre and Laurent Maurice
This Saturday, 30 January, will mark 100 days of captivity for our colleague Gauthier. For Laurent the ordeal will also last 100 days unless he's freed before 17 February. We are continuing to do everything we can to bring about the safe and rapid release of our colleagues. We are in contact with the abductors and with the national and local authorities and are following developments closely.

Our hearts go out to our colleagues and their families. ICRC staff, not only in our Geneva headquarters but all over the world, have shown great support and deep concern throughout this crisis.

And let me insist: we will continue to do everything we can, for as long as is necessary, to bring about the safe and rapid release of Gauthier and Laurent.
http://www.cicr.org/web/eng/siteeng0...terview-290110

Because it makes 100 days and we cannot forget them.

For all the soft rebels with a cause: Keep on fighting!

[M-A Lagrange]

Back from several weeks of rest, I will try to restart slowly this threat. Before jumping in the dark waters of the electoral process in South Sudan and its war potential, I will just have a comment on the problematic of justice in State Building.

’Calm’ returns to Jonglei’s Twic East after sectional fighting
Hand axes, spears and other metal weapons claimed lives and caused injuries in the Wangulei clashes. Guns were not used on Thursday or the death toll could have been different, witnesses say, crediting government disarmament efforts with residents of Twic East and neighboring counties ending last month.
Both Dacuek and Ayual are contesting ownership of Wangulei Payam center and cattle camps in the Toch (wetland between the River Nile tributaries) west of Nyuak. The case, which had never before caused inter-sectional clashes, was brought before the county authority and a seven-judge committee was formed to deal with it. According to officials, the jury declared that three cattle camps in the Toch belong to Dacuek while the payam headquarters at Wangulei is government-owned. There are more than 3 cattle camps in the Toch. This means that the two sections could share the dry season grazing land as usual as well as the Payam center.
Ayual disputed the court’s verdict and decided to appeal. Then, in an incident that is said to have sparked the fighting, a dancing Dacuek youth started caning an Ayual woman at the Payam center on Thursday and subsequently confronted anyone siding with her, according to attendants of victims of the clashes being nursed here in Bor.
An account from Dacuek side is totally reversed: it claims that Ayual attacked the Dacuek on Thursday evening when they were dancing in Wangulei. Those who talked to the Sudan Tribune from Ayual explained that the court’s decision giving Dacuek three cattle camps of Guar, Pathoor and Pakat is unacceptable. As for Wangulei, Ayual say the government’s ownership should not prevent them from exercising traditional land rights. Ayual strongly denied igniting the clashes that killed three people from their side. A fourth man, also from Ayual, was killed 2 days before the inter-sectional feuding and relatives say his death is related to the latest fight.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34142

This brief article shows quite well how it’s difficult to implement justice in a new “built from scratch” country.
What we have to really get is that justice is not really what people are looking for and at when we talk about justice in state building. In that particular case, the problem lies on who will access cattle camps. The justice decision is a matter of life and death for the people who are concerned. It seems a little disproportionate when you think about it: we are talking about cows…
But this is probably one of the reasons implementing justice becomes so complicate (even before going to the problematic of rule of law and social contract…). What are seen as simple, easy cases for us are in deed explosive issue. A little like every time a cop issues a ticket you end up with a gun fight. One of the main problematic is the concept of independent justice. In most of the State Building manuals, it is recommended to go for traditional justice. His does have good points:
1) the justice apparatus is recognized by everybody
2) the justice apparatus and the judges reflects the society
3) justice is provided through a common and shared base
But it does have bad points:
1) it is not an “impartial” justice based on legal texts. Then you end up with too classical modern/traditional justice opposition
2) judges are not always competent and justice is some times (most of the time in fact) resumed to corruption or formal like immediate justice
3) there are no inter communities formal judicial process
I do not have the solution for this, but one of the many mistakes I have seen and am witnessing is to give judicial authority to traditional authorities without even taking time to train them, knowing which judicial system is being empowered and judges’ limits of competencies.
The other problematic that this case is clearly the State capacity to impose inter ethnic justice decision. Training police and building up police capacities always seems to be the last wheel of the car. In South Sudan, most of the policemen are “old” or “incapable” former military guys. The first real training I have seen took place few months ago, 4 years after the peace agreement was signed. And that is may be where the problem lies.
State building aim to build a civil owned State but basically the civil capacity of “states to be” is built as the last resource or last solution. For 4 years SPLA stand (and keep on standing) on the position that police is not a military activity. The rational behind is 100% right but what I do not get is why the international community did not put more efforts on building the police capacities. In resume, why spend so much time and efforts to build rule of law if there are no efforts being put on building law enforcement capacity?

And one good news (for once) :
One ICRC hostage is free
For humanitarian reasons...
But one is still keept in captivity!

For all the soft rebel with a cause: keep on fighting men!

[M-A Lagrange]

Egypt seeking a delay to Sudan national elections & referendum: report

The London based Al-Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper quoted informed sources in Khartoum as saying that the proposal was put forward during the summit hosted by Cairo between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) over the last three days.
However, an official at the National Elections Committee (NEC) told the newspaper that such a move would create confusion in the whole process which was already rescheduled two times.
The former Prime Minister Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi told reporters after meeting with SPLM Chairman and South Sudan president Salva Kiir that it is preferable to push elections in order to give time for peace to be realized in Darfur.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34223

Egypt would never have made such a move without any back up on this. It is said that the issue is Darfur peace…

The good point is:

Peace partners agree to increase southern Sudan parliamentary seats

The agreement, however, ends quarrel by the National Congress Party and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement over the result of the fifth census conducted last year. The SPLM threatened to not participate in the elections of national parliament if the dispute in not resolved.
Luka Biong the minister at the presidency of southern Sudan government said that the presidency in a meeting held on Sunday agreed to increase 40 parliamentary seats to southern Sudan in the national parliament. He added they will be appointed based on election results.
However, Mohamed el-Hassan Al-Amin, National Assembly Deputy Speaker, marked his distance from what Biong said about the 40 seats adding latest understanding between the two parties reached 34 members of parliament underscoring the SPLM demands 40 seats.
Al-Amin further said that the proportional representation is the most appropriate mechanism to increase the representation of Southerners in the parliament from 21% to 25%. He added this should include women’s constituencies.
The south accuses the north of manipulating the results of the census to deny the south adequate representation in parliament, commensurate with its size, in order to pass self-serving legislation.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34225

Let see what this will give. Anyways, the elections will not be post pound. The referendum will happen. And all the powers of the region are scaling up their borders police and watching Sudan “so called” democratic change.

Someome was telling me that Russia was making sure that the balance of power would not change in the region because of the elections… Their main policy would be to arm everybody to make sure that they can go to an infinite war in Sudan.
I sometime wonder if the biggest peace spoilers are not “us”, the weapons manufacturers. Without countries as Sudan what will we do with all our stocks of anmunitions…

Since its military coup of 1989 the NCP group maintained its dictatorship in Sudan through the control of executive, legislative and judicial organs together with the absence of impartiality in the public services.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34219

It’s funny the guy is addressing NCP but actually this does fit for SPLM. All what he says about NCP is true for SPLM. Fake census, denial of state services…
Apparently SPLM did learn its lesson.

[M-A Lagrange]

No rescheduling for elections, Sudan president says

The Sudanese president and head of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) Omer Hassan Al-Bashir emphasized today that elections will be held on time despite mounting calls by opposition groups that they be postponed.
He said that the western region of Darfur is now secure and stable which eliminates any justification for postponing the elections, noting that the 1986 polls were not delayed due to the war in the South.
The SPLM has vehemently refused any move to postpone the referendum process and many think tank groups fear a return to civil war should the self determination process be disrupted. However, many post-referendum issues have yet to be addressed particularly nationality, national debt, water agreement with the border demarcation process well behind schedule.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34252

So elections will take place at planned date. Anyways, it was almost impossible to postpound those elections. This even if the process to educate the population in South is absolutely not fully completed…

Sudan’s NCP says committed to implementing Islamic law

Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) reiterated its position on implementing Islamic Shari’a law in the country as part of its elections programme.
This week at a meeting between NCP and Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) in Cairo hosted by the Egyptian government discussed the issue of Islamic law implementation. Both sides were deadlocked on their stances with SPLM calling for a secular state.
But the Sudanese Undersecretary of Foreign affairs Mutrif Sideeg and member of the NCP delegation said that this position is not negotiable.
“We will not abandon our Shari’a nor do we call on the others to accept what they do not accept. We accepted the principle that citizenship is the basis of rights and duties, and we have accepted the principle of unity in diversity, and therefore will not commit others to what we are committed to. We do not accept that the others void our personality, religion and identity under any circumstances,” he said.
Currently semi-autonomous South Sudan is excluded from the application of Islamic law but observers say that this has deepened the rift between North and the South and diminished hopes of making unity attractive in the 2011 referendum.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34253


Well, the question of imposing Sharia has been one of the many trigger of the South Sudan war. But in that case, it is definitevely the Sudan Unity policy that is targetted.
South will never accept and North will never drop it. But those NCP is targetting are the international community.
Unity is attractive basically for none of the sudanese but partition is not attractive for Sudan’s neightbors nor the international community. This mainly due to the SPLM poor management of the South. (When you have to choose between pest and cholera…). By putting Sharia high on the sunlight, NCP is just causing problems to western powers.
On one hand, they sign a peace agreement for Darfur to please West, on the other hand they spoil West hopes to have Sudan remaining united by promoting Sharia…

I really wonder how North will be able to conduct another double front war in 2012/2013… Or even before. Imposing Sharia is also a great opportunity for North to avoid 2012 referedum. If Bashir is re elected (And he will surely be) and he really goes hard on imposing Sharia in the whole country (North and South), this will definitevely be concidered as a casus belli by South. (And also as a grave breach in the CPA). Then no referendum, an immediat partition and a war that South is not necerely ready to fight at that point of time. And this despite rushing to arm itself.

[Stan]

U.S. Conventional Weapons Destruction Program Helps Sudan Overcome Legacies of War

The Office of Weapons Removal and Abatement in the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs has been helping the Sudanese people in the Nuba Mountains region, in Kassala State, Blue Nile State, and throughout much of South Sudan to confront these threats with nearly $20 million in humanitarian mine action and small arms/light weapons destruction assistance since 2005 as part of the U.S. Conventional Weapons Destruction (CWD) Program in Sudan.

[M-A Lagrange]

Oil revenue in Sudan slashed by 60% in 2009: GoSS

March 1, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – The proceeds from oil exports in Sudan has declined by a staggering 60% in 2009 with revenues measuring approximately $2.5 billion compared to $ 6.5 billion a year ago, according to a report compiled by the Government of South Sudan (GoSS).
The report said that oil prices reached an all time high of $132 in mid-2008 before dropping to $35 in the first quarter of 2009.
The global financial crisis that started in late 2008 has hit hard the economic activity throughout the world reducing demand for oil.
Last year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that Sudan’s foreign exchange reserves were sunk across the years from $2 billion in mid-2008 to $300 million in March 2009, which covers only 2 weeks of imports.
The IMF said this was caused by the fall in oil prices, which is Sudan’s main export, among other things.
The world financial body criticized Sudan’s 2009 budget saying that its underlying assumptions proved wrong with forecasted oil price of $65 per barrel compared to updated projected figures of $36.8 for 2009 and $44.7 in 2010.
GoSS said that the federal government’s share of oil production in 2009 was 83.7 million barrels, while the share of partners was around 77.1 million barrels. Total revenue from oil of amounted about $ 1.5 billion while oil used in domestic refineries totaled $ 1.06.
The share of the federal government was approximately $ 1.4 billion while GoSS share was $ 1.06 billion.
In Abyei, the report said that oil revenues there reached about $215.3 million with $64.6 million going to the Federal Government, $67.2 million to GoSS, $4.1 million each to the states of South Kordofan, Warrap, tribes of Dinka Ngok and Misseriya and $66.8 million to Abyei fund.
Some 98 per cent of south Sudan’s non-aid income comes from oil, while the corresponding figure for the north is 60-70 per cent
About 75 per cent of Sudan’s proven reserves of 6.3bn barrels are in the south but the pipeline that carries the oil to export terminals and refineries runs through the north. The south needs Khartoum’s co-operation to sell its oil; the north needs revenues from its neighbor’s resources.
Last month a senior GoSS official said that the South may continue to share oil proceeds with the North for a limited time following secession to prevent an economic collapse there.
The separation of Sudan into a two states will deny the North billions of dollars in revenue generating from vast oilfields in the south of the country. Currently the North and the South are splitting the proceeds of crude in accordance with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in 2005.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34298

One of the comments on this article shows pretty clearly how the situation is in fact: the pipes and the oil plants are in North. So oil which is the main source of revenues from South is still in the hands of North.
In case of war, as South seems to be more and more willing, access to oil and revenues will still be an issue for South.
Yes they can “pre sell” their oil but for how long?
Also, as we all know, low cost wars do not exist. Partition and the war that will result in it just after will only put South under another dependency. .

In a very interesting article from Les Afriques (unfortunately in French), Sudan wars are analysed as the first cold war like opposition between US and China. I recommend it.
http://www.lesafriques.com/actualite...?article=22613
Also, I recommend this article from panapress. http://www.panapress.com/newslatf.as...dte=15/02/2010
Despite using old data, the article shows quite well why the construction of a pipeline between South Sudan and Kenya is not something for tomorrow, especially if it is China who builds it.
Unfortunately, Uganda is not the best and quickest way to the sea.

What intrigues me in that war to come story is the position of Russia. But may be Stan can provide an interesting light on that particular point. Selling weapons is not really a position. Especially as Small arms reports tend to prove that China is the biggest dealer in the place.
I witnessed Russia interest for Africa re rise in DRC. I would be surprise if they just play on the replacement bench for the coming North/South round.

[M-A Lagrange]

A partial response on Russia policy over Sudan:

Russia's Special Envoy to Sudan Mikhail Margelov will begin a four-day visit to Sudan on Tuesday, March 9. He will be heading a delegation that includes businessmen.


But more interresting:
Taha, Kiir to represent NCP & SPLM in Kenya’s IGAD summit
March 7, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – The First Vice president of Sudan Salva Kiir and 2nd Vice President Ali Osman Taha will fly to Nairobi next week to take part in the extraordinary summit of Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Nairobi that starts on Tuesday, state media reported today.
The conference held primarily with the purpose of bridging differences between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) on the implementation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34352

[M-A Lagrange]

An interresting analyses of EU policy and forseen challenges:

EU policy in Sudan, 2010-2011
The European Union is closely following the evolution of the situation as the current events could lead to a resumption of the conflict between North and South, that in the past claimed two million lives and displaced four million persons in the region and abroad. Although the conflict in Darfur is still not solved, and there are other dormant conflicts in the East, Kordofan, Blue Nile, Nuba mountains and the North, resumption of the North – South conflict would have dire consequences. The instability of Sudan means instability for the region and possible fuelling of other regional conflicts, with important security and humanitarian consequences.
Currently four scenarios can be envisaged for Southern Sudan post 2011 : forced unity, forced secession, agreed unity and agreed secession. While the first two will certainly lead to the resumption of war between North and South, agreed unity may result in the implosion of the South. The scenario for agreed secession, the most likely option if the referendum is respected, has to be closely accompanied by coherent and unified approach of the international community in order to ensure a viable transition.
For the past five years, implementation of the provisions of the CPA has been delayed and within the next 12 months, Sudan’s future as a country will be decided. Before the expiry of the CPA in July 2011 and bearing in mind the high risk of the resumption of hostilities, we are faced with the following choices :
1. To seek a global solution to Sudan’s conflicts, by negotiating an additional protocol for the CPA, which would allow for the postponement of national elections by 6 months to a year. Within this time frame, a permanent cease fire would be put in place in Darfur, allowing for the inclusion of Darfur’s population in the elections. There would have to be a change in the laws to provide for free and fair elections, and allow for post 2011 referendum arrangements. This would have to be ensured by a coherent and unified international community approach (3) .
2. To address issues separately, to continue with the elections timeframe, to support the 2011 referendum and to focus on post-2011 referendum arrangements. Separately, to work on the negotiation of a Darfur ceasefire and peace agreement, and advance from there on the preparation of a conducive environment for the next elections. This implies a unified IC approach, and a “carrot-and- stick” policy for North and South to prevent the resumption of hostilities.
3. To delink the presidential elections from the CPA and from the referendum. The elections would be postponed until a conducive environment is in place – within a reasonable time frame - while support would be given to measures going in that direction, independent from the referendum. The referendum and post-referendum arrangements based on interdependence would be supported (5) , win-win strategies would be developed for collaboration between North and South, and development and governance in Southern Sudan would be supported to prevent it from being born as a failed state.
Promote a settlement on Darfur with the utmost urgency.
http://www.affaires-strategiques.inf...hp?article2963

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan opposition want elections moved to November, slams UNMIS official
A number of presidential candidates in Sudan has jointly called on the April elections to be postponed by seven months till next November and submitted a proposed formation for the National elections committee (NEC).
The Umma Party runner for president Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi hosted a meeting at his residence in Omdurman agreed on steps that need to be taken for achieving democratic transformation and establishing an "impartial" board to monitor the work of the NEC in terms of administration and finances, creating a body consisting of presidential nominees with rotating head, rescheduling elections to resolve a number outstanding issues.
The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) representative at the summit Ibrahim Ghandour promised to convey the demands to president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir and arrange a meeting with them to discuss their requests.
Absent from the meeting were the candidates from the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) Yasir Arman, Democratic Unionist Party Hatim Al-Sir, Sudan Communist Party Mohamed Ibrahim Nugud. It was not immediately clear why they did not attend.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34416

This has been the big debate for the past weeks. But finally, NEC decided to have the election in April as planned.
During that time campaign goes as planed: free, fair and through debate:

Biemnom MP assassinated in Juba
March 14, 2010, (KHARTOUM) — Honorable Bol Deng Kot was slain by unknown uniformed men on Wednesday, March 10, resulting in condemnation by authorities and the citizenry of Biemnon county of the southern state of Unity.
Honorable Bol Deng Kot was a member of parliament in the regional legislative assembly in Juba, representing Biemnom constituency as a member of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement.
Without the endorsement of the SPLM Political Bureau, he chose to stand as an independent candidate. But his popularity in the area compelled SPLM leadership to promise him a parliamentary seat from among the 40 seats allocated to SPLM after the latest negotiations with the ruling National Congress Party.

http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/...RecordId=32438

SPLM is quite tuff on independant candidates all over the place. It is clear that the transition from military to political organisation and the possibility to face electoral defeat is difficult for them.
South America has shown that former military organisations have the tendancy to loose elections. And the temptation to resolve that probem through force is high.

An interresting report from NRC
http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/...anDisaster.pdf

The border is not set and it does create problems. Last week the SPLA have announced that nomads from North did attack a SPLA out post in the border area.
(French media link below)

http://lci.tf1.fr/filnews/monde/accr...s-5770152.html

[M-A Lagrange]

South Sudan army accused of killing and raping civilians in C. Equatoria
March 23, 2010 (JUBA) – Southern Sudan army, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) has been accused of killing and raping civilians in Central Equatoria state.

Government reshuffle in Lakes brings two spy men into power
March 22, 2010 (RUMBEK) – Five new county commissioners were appointed in Lakes state by presidential decree of the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS). Two of the appointees have served in special security branches.
In the new decree No. 32/3/2010, President Salva Kiir Mayardit relieved five commissioners, two state advisors and the state finance minister. He was acting on the recommendation of the caretaker governor to relieve the officials.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34516

The same is happening in many other Sates, especially when they are deployed in rural areas to secure potential threatening ethnic groups. The same with the State representatives. The caretakers have for mandate to secure the elections.

This shows and enlight all the difficulty of “securing” elections in a country when the government is temptated to use “quiete terror” as political campaign tool.
The military coup is going on and SPLA is placing its minutemen…


On the other side…

Bashir issues expulsion warning to foreign poll observers
March 22, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — The Sudanese president Omar Hassan al-Bashir today issued a strong warning to foreign election monitors threatening to expel them if they call for delaying the polls scheduled for April.
The warning appears directed at the US based Carter Center which last week called for a slight delay in elections because of logistical and procedural issues.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34508

Franckly, a slight delay for logistic reason is reasonable but would mean no elections before 2011…

[M-A Lagrange]

From reuter

Monitoring Hitler election
Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) Luis Moreno-Ocampo made the remarks during a press conference in Brussels where he met with European Union (EU) officials.
"It’s like monitoring a Hitler election.... The EU’s observers on the ground are facing "a big challenge," Moreno-Ocampo told a press conference in Brussels" Ocampo said.
The ICC indicted Bashir last year on seven counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity, but stopped short of including a charge of genocide. The United Nations says as many as 300,000 people have been killed since conflict erupted in Darfur in 2003, although Sudan rejects that figure.

Well, monitoring the SPLM is like monitoring the communist party in Staline times… Sudanese are just luky people!

From Sudan tribune:

Japan to monitor Sudan’s general election
Wednesday 24 March 2010
Tokyo is expected to send 15-20 personnel, including experts from the private sector and local embassy officials. These observers will work with those from other nations to inspect polling stations and monitor the counting of votes, reported Nikkei news service today.
Japan’s delegation is expected to remain there until mid-April, when the election results will have been announced.
The elections, to be held April 11-13, will select the president of the republic, the president of South Sudan’s semi-autonomous government, MPs to the national assembly, governors besides the members of regional assemblies.
Last October Japan granted 10 million US dollar to support the electoral process in Sudan. The electoral assistance which is the largest-scale contribution among Japan’s electoral assistances ever provided in Africa, is supplied through the UNDP.
Japan has been actively contributing to the implementation of the CPA in the areas of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR).

After China funding the election, Japan is monitoring it... A future Asian cold war in africa to come

From AFP :
At North and South border tensions are rising:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...9Ny3yzCBvfkF_w
(in French)
Misserya and SPLA are fighting each others.
Misseriya claiming for their rights to migrate with their animals from South Kordofan to Unity. And the SPLA saying they are SAF supported forces.
According to SPLA, Misserya have been attacking them with RPG.
SPLA complains that some Misseriya are traveling without children, wife and animals but only weapons and in battle dress.
Also, the UNMO are trying to find the 200 Misseriya combatants but are not capable to locate them...

All the nomads I know in the area are traveling with battle dress and AK or RPG…

And finally the other side… Of the resources cake:

Beltone to launch $1 bln Sudan agriculture fund
CAIRO – Egypt’s Beltone Private Equity and Sudan’s Kenana Sugar Company will launch a $1 billion agricultural investment fund next week, Beltone said on Tuesday.
Gulf and other Arab countries have been investing in a range of farming projects in Sudan, Africa’s biggest country by area and long viewed as having huge agricultural potential.
“We are launching the fund with the aim of deploying up to $1 billion for large-scale agricultural projects,” Osama Rashad, Beltone’s investor relations manager told Reuters, adding that the fund would be launched on Monday in Khartoum.
The vehicle will be called Mahaseel Agricultural Investment Fund.
Beltone private equity, a subsidiary of Beltone Partners, had over 2.1 billion Egyptian pounds in assets under management at the end of February 2010, mostly in real estate and retail.
Kenana produces 400,000 tonnes of sugar a year. Its biggest shareholders are the Sudanese government with 35.63 percent, the Kuwait Investment Authority with 30.5 percent and the government of Saudi Arabia with 10.92 percent, the firm’s website said.
The company’s farms span over 200,000 feddans (84,000 hectares) in Sudan.

($1=5.488 Egyptian pounds) (Writing by Shaimaa Fayed; Editing by Greg Mahlich)
http://farmlandgrab.org/11843

Who said that oil isthe most important in a region where almost everyone is facing food deficit?