South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[M-A Lagrange]

US Congress reps. seek to commemorate Sudan’s CPA

January 20, 2010 (WASHINGTON) — Three Republican congressmen introduced a resolution in the US House of Representatives today to belatedly recognize the fifth anniversary of the signing of Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and call for "urgent and aggressive actions to establish peace in all regions of Sudan."

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33854

I do not know what they call an aggressive action to establish peace in all region of Sudan. Few days ago, AFRICOM was optimist about the elections and USA Special Envoy also. As all the NGOs covering the elections (Carter Centre… ) also as well as the electoral observers. Even China decided to enter in the dance…
The real question is not peace between North and South. Peace as the absence of war is there. Peace as Spinoza describes it… It's another subject.

In fact it's not the election and the insecurity that such exercise brings with him which is the problem. The problem is far much simple. The main problematic in South Sudan nowadays is economical.
Yes the Nuer and the Dinka are fighting… On power and oil… In Warrap or Jonglei…
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/...nt&rc=1&cc=sdn

But average violence is due to poverty. In Yambio what started the fire last week is just the delay in payment for students' performance incentives during CPA anniversary.

Now, let's have a look at the complex dance of the elections:

SPLM candidate vows to work for Sudan’s unity
In a press conference held at the SPLM premises after his arrival to Khartoum and an important reception by supporters, Arman vowed to work for voluntary unity between the north and the south. He also said he would present a political program that the south fought for.
Arman further described his candidacy for the presidency as a "gift" from the south to the north and a greeting to the west and center. He further added that his candidacy restores confidence and rehabilitates the North-South relations.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33866

Kiir’s presidential advisor declares independent candidacy for governorship

Alfred Lado Gore, a veteran politician and advisor to President Salva Kiir Mayardit on Diplomatic Affairs on Thursday declared his intention to run for the post of governor for Central Equatoria state as an independent candidate.
Gore’s nomination was turned down last week by the party’s highest political organ, the SPLM Political Bureau, in favor of the incumbent governor Maj. General Clement Wani Konga.
He sounded confident, saying he enjoys popularity among the citizens of Central Equatoria state and criticized the Political Bureau for taking an “unpopular decision among the people” during the selection exercise. . He further explained that he took the decision to contest independently because of “popular demand” on him among the people of Central Equatoria state.
The SPLM official said he would not leave his party but work to maintain its popularity in the state by bringing on board his supporters.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33863

The guy is resigning from his job. At the best moment, South Sudan just do not need a wise guy for diplomacy right now…
Already Salva Kiir is facing internal opposition inside SPLM as the line at national level is Unity and the line at South Sudan level (His line) is independence. And now key people are running independent…
To be frank, this is what happens when in the name of peace, you put every body in the same box and say now you are all friends and you gonna work it out.
Basically there are 2 different approach. The South Sudan one and the DRC one.
In South Sudan, all opponent of North were put in a box called SPLM to ease State building job and avoid civil war (what a result on the last one!). I'll call it the all=1 approach.
In DRC, they ended up with 4 vice presidents and 1 president the 4+1 approach.

I just do not know how this will end up but the 4+1 approach had the advantage to be more "democracy like" than the all=1 approach. Not that DRC is a stunning success, far from it, but at least elections preparation was less messy and civil war was limited to elections results publication.
It's also the problem of having an international community who's taking side unilaterally not for the "good guys" but against the "bad guys".
I mean, if we really want State building to work out and end up with Weberian States supported by a strong administration and promoting Democracy (Here I put a "D" on purpose), the enemy of my enemy is my friend strategy is just too limited.
And let's make a stupid comment: The 4+1 is culturally more accurate most of the time. Even it creates a Hydra which is less easy to manage than the All=1 Chimera.

But let's talk about future (?)

UN chief urges Sudanese to discuss post-referendum arrangements
January 22, 2010 (NEW YORK) — UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon urged the Sudanese parties of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) to address the post referendum arrangements to shun war.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33876

Ah… ??? shouldn't we be looking at post elections first.
As JMM says: let's shoot the 25 m target first. But I believe that it's preventive (even preemptive) action.

Step by step gentlemen please. The fubar potential is already there.


And finally the "So Smart" move from Khartoum:

Sudan revokes licenses of 26 aid groups in Darfur, warns dozen others

The following groups have their licenses cancelled according to the decree; 1- Prospect Sudan 2- Counterpart International 3- Feed the Children 4- Food for the Hungry 5- Safe Harbor 6- The Halo Trust 7- Right to Play 8- Air Serve 9- Mercy International 10- Global Peace Mission 11- Population Media Centre 12- Sudanese International Development and Relief Association (SIDRA) 13- Royal Dutch Aid 14- Canadian Association for African Development 15- SPEG- Holland 16- Norwegian League for Disabled 17- African Association for Development 18- Health Assistance for Children (HAFC) 19- Nabata Charitable Foundation 20- Impact 21- Cins- Italy 22- Ulfa Aid 23- Joint Projects Organization 24- Arabic Centre for Immigrant Labors 25- Tomp/Germany 26- Human Relief and Peace.

The second set of organizations received an unspecified warning to adjust status in accordance with the law but no details were furnished. They include Stromme Foundation 2. Veterinaraires Sans Forntieres- Germany 3. Planned Parenthood 4. (International Centre for Agricultural Research in Dry Area(ICARDA 5. Deniz Feneri 6. International Blue Crescent Relief 7. Handicap International 8. (Education Action International (Former was University Services Org 9. Movimondo 10. Sudanese Mothers for Peace 11. Panos Sudan 12. Eritrean Islamic Relief 13. One Earth.

A humanitarian war crime to come?
Please have a look at that threat: Humanitarian action: a Just action?

M-A

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan’s peace partners failed to reach agreement over parliamentary seats

SPLM wanted more seats for the South in the National Assembly in order to make it possible to block any future attempt to amend the constitution by the elected national parliament which might affect the gains of the CPA in the South or the conduct of referendum itself.
Southern Sudan officials have however observed that NCP had become more intransigent after learning that the SPLM had distanced itself from forging an alliance with it during the upcoming April elections.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33906

When two liars are accusing each others:

Khartoum paper prints ‘nonsense’ on Blue Nile troop build-up, says SPLA

January 25, 2010 (RUMBEK) – The Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) Official Spokesman, Maj-Gen. Kuol Deim Kuol, today denied that the South Sudan army is building up forces in Blue Nile State. He was responding to a news article printed in Akhir Lahza.
"This is all nonsense," said the SPLA spokesman in reply. "SPLA is not present in Blue Nile, all our troop are in Northern Upper Nile at Gupa — you see Sudan Armed Forces’s problem is that they mix up borders, and the fact is that the border is not demarcated."
He suggested the problem was perhaps a matter of border demarcation and called upon the Khartoum government to demarcate the borders. "Where is the border between Upper Nile state and Blue Nile state demarcated?" he asked.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33907

I love that! South Sudan is basically a country with moving borders. The border in the South is being discussed. The border in the North also. Wait, they also are negociating for the border with Ethiopia…
The base of a Nation is… A Land, People and an army? Well I guess they have the people, the army but are still missing the Land. At least the limits of their Land.

But North is not in rest about lies…

Sudan rejects US allegations of masterminding weapons flow to South

“We heard today from the U.N. that it is not just small arms but some heavier munitions that seem to be flowing in,” Rice said. “We weren’t given specifics on that. But we have seen, in the violence that is taking place in the South, a higher degree of sophistication and lethality of the weapons employed, and that’s a source of concern”.
The American official said that Washington believed some of the weapons were coming from northern Sudan.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33929

Some are also coming from other places, that's for sure. But saying that North are not supplying weapons to the South… Between some and all there is a difference. Just like between some and none.

The elections: going officially fake?

NCP endorses Kiir for South Sudan presidency, calls on SPLM to reciprocate

The NCP’s presidential adviser Ali Tamim Fartak told Reuters that the decision not to field a candidate for president of the south, which will vote on January 9, 2011 on independence, was to “maintain a good partnership” with the SPLM.
“And we hope the SPLM will do the same by withdrawing their candidate for the president of the republic,” Fartak said.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33928

Truth is also that in many places, NCP, like any other parties, except SPLM, has not been able to register its candidates. For unknown reasons they did not have the paper work…
The elections can be fair and transparent, if there is only one candidate for each post…

This really questions the concept of elections in post conflict countries. Especially if there is a possibility to end up the conflict just by splitting the place in several pieces.
Not that union is really an option actually but somehow, it should be impossible to come to such end.

We are clearly in a Nation destructuration process now. And it has been endorsed by both parties.

But while China is trying to be democratic… India is not loosing its objective:

Sudan, India discuss energetic cooperation

Indian Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, Shri Murli Deora arrived yesterday to Khartoum met today with his Sudanese counterpart Al-Zubair Ahmed Al-Hassan, to review progress on the existing projects and discuss ways to expand it.
ONGC’s overseas arm of the state-owned ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) has a 24.125 per cent stake in Sudan’s Block 5A. OVL also has a 25 per cent stake in Sudan’s Greater Nile Oil Project (Block 1, 2 and 4), which produces 280,000 bpd.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33910

War among the SPLM: when the party is fighting among its people

SPLM warns against contesting as independent candidates

The Chairman of the SPLM Youth League and member of the party’s Political Bureau, Akol Paul Kordit, announced on Tuesday that the party would not allow any of its members to stand as independent candidates.
Three senior officials of the party have officially declared their independent candidacy for governorship. These include Southern Sudan President’s advisor on Diplomatic Affairs, Alfred Lado Gore for Central Equatoria state, the state minister of Energy and Mining in the Government of National Unity, Angelina Jany Teny for Unity state and the incumbent governor of Eastern Equatoria state, Aloysius Emor Ojetuk.
Jonglei state was also reported to have been processing for an independent candidacy for governorship while many others across the region considered contesting for parliamentary seats as independent candidates.
There are growing fears in the SPLM leadership that many of the candidates nominated by the Political Bureau in Juba may lose elections to independent party candidates who were initially nominated by the people and the Electoral Colleges in the states, but dropped by the Bureau.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33916

SPLM is falling in the old one party trappe. We are supporting the construction of an African China like both in South and North. Well, Uganda and Rwanda are the model for South and they are not really democratically open. Sometimes, I really wonder if we do have a memory. Enlightened dictatorship were the failed solution of the 70th. Now we are building sustainable dictatorship... Could someone explain me what is the difference?

[M-A Lagrange]

First of all, some quick comments on the AU meeting and the Sudan question:

[

B]Jean Ping redoute le chaos au Soudan
[/B]Est ce que l’indépendance du sud Soudan ne va pas amener les autres acteurs au Darfour et ailleurs à demander comme le Sud Soudan une indépendance qu’il ne demande pas aujourd’hui etc etc. Alors si ce scenario catastrophe qui j’espère n’arrivera pas se produit alors nous sommes partis dans une situation de chaos.
http://www.gaboneco.com/show_article.php?IDActu=16751

As usual, Mr Ping is asking the million dollars question: what would be the consequences of South Sudan independence on the Darfur conflict?
Will Sudan become an African Poland? Basically, a never ending source of conflicts in the future. Looking at European History shows quickly that splitting a country is several pieces just does not work.
CPA was meant to bring peace but partiction, especially as South is not capable to administrate itself, is a trigger puller "en puissance".

Le Kenya s'engage à la reconstruction du Sud Soudan
http://www.casafree.com/modules/news...?storyid=42560

Un projet ferroviaire relancé au Sud
Costello Garang Ring Lual, conseiller spécial du président du Sud Soudan, est parvenu à intéresser une firme américaine au projet ferroviaire entre Juba et Tororo.
http://www.africaintelligence.fr/LOI...9840-ART-login

Like in the Wild Wild West, civilization comes with the train? It looks like a bad remake of a Sergio Leones film. But what are the other options?
Developing transport in South Sudan is vital for the economy. But the real question is linking what with who?
Train is may be the best idea for macro development, but the real challenge is at micro level. Yes South Sudan needs a big communication way to export the oil (Not refined in South by the way) but what South needs first is real roads to link cities together. What is the use to put efforts on agriculture if the targeted market is export? Once again, the logic of State Building is driven by the necessity to build the centralized administration apparatus seen as the key to stability. But the best key for stability is first to have a self sufficient country. As long as South will depend on imports for basic food: the conflict possibility will be there.
The people… Big heads seems to always forget that part of the Clausewitz trinity: the people. Elections do not keep quiet the people as efficiently as a full belly… State Building needs a major reform and needs to look at the people as THE KEY actor rather than a ex nihilo empowered intelligencia and elite which get its legitimacy from international economical and political interest rather than from popular legitimacy. David Kilcullen was already pointing this bias several years ago…

Sudan/Chad: almost 100 days of ordeal for abducted staff members Gauthier Lefèvre and Laurent Maurice
This Saturday, 30 January, will mark 100 days of captivity for our colleague Gauthier. For Laurent the ordeal will also last 100 days unless he's freed before 17 February. We are continuing to do everything we can to bring about the safe and rapid release of our colleagues. We are in contact with the abductors and with the national and local authorities and are following developments closely.

Our hearts go out to our colleagues and their families. ICRC staff, not only in our Geneva headquarters but all over the world, have shown great support and deep concern throughout this crisis.

And let me insist: we will continue to do everything we can, for as long as is necessary, to bring about the safe and rapid release of Gauthier and Laurent.
http://www.cicr.org/web/eng/siteeng0...terview-290110

Because it makes 100 days and we cannot forget them.

For all the soft rebels with a cause: Keep on fighting!

[M-A Lagrange]

Back from several weeks of rest, I will try to restart slowly this threat. Before jumping in the dark waters of the electoral process in South Sudan and its war potential, I will just have a comment on the problematic of justice in State Building.

’Calm’ returns to Jonglei’s Twic East after sectional fighting
Hand axes, spears and other metal weapons claimed lives and caused injuries in the Wangulei clashes. Guns were not used on Thursday or the death toll could have been different, witnesses say, crediting government disarmament efforts with residents of Twic East and neighboring counties ending last month.
Both Dacuek and Ayual are contesting ownership of Wangulei Payam center and cattle camps in the Toch (wetland between the River Nile tributaries) west of Nyuak. The case, which had never before caused inter-sectional clashes, was brought before the county authority and a seven-judge committee was formed to deal with it. According to officials, the jury declared that three cattle camps in the Toch belong to Dacuek while the payam headquarters at Wangulei is government-owned. There are more than 3 cattle camps in the Toch. This means that the two sections could share the dry season grazing land as usual as well as the Payam center.
Ayual disputed the court’s verdict and decided to appeal. Then, in an incident that is said to have sparked the fighting, a dancing Dacuek youth started caning an Ayual woman at the Payam center on Thursday and subsequently confronted anyone siding with her, according to attendants of victims of the clashes being nursed here in Bor.
An account from Dacuek side is totally reversed: it claims that Ayual attacked the Dacuek on Thursday evening when they were dancing in Wangulei. Those who talked to the Sudan Tribune from Ayual explained that the court’s decision giving Dacuek three cattle camps of Guar, Pathoor and Pakat is unacceptable. As for Wangulei, Ayual say the government’s ownership should not prevent them from exercising traditional land rights. Ayual strongly denied igniting the clashes that killed three people from their side. A fourth man, also from Ayual, was killed 2 days before the inter-sectional feuding and relatives say his death is related to the latest fight.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34142

This brief article shows quite well how it’s difficult to implement justice in a new “built from scratch” country.
What we have to really get is that justice is not really what people are looking for and at when we talk about justice in state building. In that particular case, the problem lies on who will access cattle camps. The justice decision is a matter of life and death for the people who are concerned. It seems a little disproportionate when you think about it: we are talking about cows…
But this is probably one of the reasons implementing justice becomes so complicate (even before going to the problematic of rule of law and social contract…). What are seen as simple, easy cases for us are in deed explosive issue. A little like every time a cop issues a ticket you end up with a gun fight. One of the main problematic is the concept of independent justice. In most of the State Building manuals, it is recommended to go for traditional justice. His does have good points:
1) the justice apparatus is recognized by everybody
2) the justice apparatus and the judges reflects the society
3) justice is provided through a common and shared base
But it does have bad points:
1) it is not an “impartial” justice based on legal texts. Then you end up with too classical modern/traditional justice opposition
2) judges are not always competent and justice is some times (most of the time in fact) resumed to corruption or formal like immediate justice
3) there are no inter communities formal judicial process
I do not have the solution for this, but one of the many mistakes I have seen and am witnessing is to give judicial authority to traditional authorities without even taking time to train them, knowing which judicial system is being empowered and judges’ limits of competencies.
The other problematic that this case is clearly the State capacity to impose inter ethnic justice decision. Training police and building up police capacities always seems to be the last wheel of the car. In South Sudan, most of the policemen are “old” or “incapable” former military guys. The first real training I have seen took place few months ago, 4 years after the peace agreement was signed. And that is may be where the problem lies.
State building aim to build a civil owned State but basically the civil capacity of “states to be” is built as the last resource or last solution. For 4 years SPLA stand (and keep on standing) on the position that police is not a military activity. The rational behind is 100% right but what I do not get is why the international community did not put more efforts on building the police capacities. In resume, why spend so much time and efforts to build rule of law if there are no efforts being put on building law enforcement capacity?

And one good news (for once) :
One ICRC hostage is free
For humanitarian reasons...
But one is still keept in captivity!

For all the soft rebel with a cause: keep on fighting men!

[M-A Lagrange]

Egypt seeking a delay to Sudan national elections & referendum: report

The London based Al-Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper quoted informed sources in Khartoum as saying that the proposal was put forward during the summit hosted by Cairo between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) over the last three days.
However, an official at the National Elections Committee (NEC) told the newspaper that such a move would create confusion in the whole process which was already rescheduled two times.
The former Prime Minister Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi told reporters after meeting with SPLM Chairman and South Sudan president Salva Kiir that it is preferable to push elections in order to give time for peace to be realized in Darfur.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34223

Egypt would never have made such a move without any back up on this. It is said that the issue is Darfur peace…

The good point is:

Peace partners agree to increase southern Sudan parliamentary seats

The agreement, however, ends quarrel by the National Congress Party and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement over the result of the fifth census conducted last year. The SPLM threatened to not participate in the elections of national parliament if the dispute in not resolved.
Luka Biong the minister at the presidency of southern Sudan government said that the presidency in a meeting held on Sunday agreed to increase 40 parliamentary seats to southern Sudan in the national parliament. He added they will be appointed based on election results.
However, Mohamed el-Hassan Al-Amin, National Assembly Deputy Speaker, marked his distance from what Biong said about the 40 seats adding latest understanding between the two parties reached 34 members of parliament underscoring the SPLM demands 40 seats.
Al-Amin further said that the proportional representation is the most appropriate mechanism to increase the representation of Southerners in the parliament from 21% to 25%. He added this should include women’s constituencies.
The south accuses the north of manipulating the results of the census to deny the south adequate representation in parliament, commensurate with its size, in order to pass self-serving legislation.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34225

Let see what this will give. Anyways, the elections will not be post pound. The referendum will happen. And all the powers of the region are scaling up their borders police and watching Sudan “so called” democratic change.

Someome was telling me that Russia was making sure that the balance of power would not change in the region because of the elections… Their main policy would be to arm everybody to make sure that they can go to an infinite war in Sudan.
I sometime wonder if the biggest peace spoilers are not “us”, the weapons manufacturers. Without countries as Sudan what will we do with all our stocks of anmunitions…

Since its military coup of 1989 the NCP group maintained its dictatorship in Sudan through the control of executive, legislative and judicial organs together with the absence of impartiality in the public services.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34219

It’s funny the guy is addressing NCP but actually this does fit for SPLM. All what he says about NCP is true for SPLM. Fake census, denial of state services…
Apparently SPLM did learn its lesson.

[M-A Lagrange]

No rescheduling for elections, Sudan president says

The Sudanese president and head of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) Omer Hassan Al-Bashir emphasized today that elections will be held on time despite mounting calls by opposition groups that they be postponed.
He said that the western region of Darfur is now secure and stable which eliminates any justification for postponing the elections, noting that the 1986 polls were not delayed due to the war in the South.
The SPLM has vehemently refused any move to postpone the referendum process and many think tank groups fear a return to civil war should the self determination process be disrupted. However, many post-referendum issues have yet to be addressed particularly nationality, national debt, water agreement with the border demarcation process well behind schedule.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34252

So elections will take place at planned date. Anyways, it was almost impossible to postpound those elections. This even if the process to educate the population in South is absolutely not fully completed…

Sudan’s NCP says committed to implementing Islamic law

Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) reiterated its position on implementing Islamic Shari’a law in the country as part of its elections programme.
This week at a meeting between NCP and Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) in Cairo hosted by the Egyptian government discussed the issue of Islamic law implementation. Both sides were deadlocked on their stances with SPLM calling for a secular state.
But the Sudanese Undersecretary of Foreign affairs Mutrif Sideeg and member of the NCP delegation said that this position is not negotiable.
“We will not abandon our Shari’a nor do we call on the others to accept what they do not accept. We accepted the principle that citizenship is the basis of rights and duties, and we have accepted the principle of unity in diversity, and therefore will not commit others to what we are committed to. We do not accept that the others void our personality, religion and identity under any circumstances,” he said.
Currently semi-autonomous South Sudan is excluded from the application of Islamic law but observers say that this has deepened the rift between North and the South and diminished hopes of making unity attractive in the 2011 referendum.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34253


Well, the question of imposing Sharia has been one of the many trigger of the South Sudan war. But in that case, it is definitevely the Sudan Unity policy that is targetted.
South will never accept and North will never drop it. But those NCP is targetting are the international community.
Unity is attractive basically for none of the sudanese but partition is not attractive for Sudan’s neightbors nor the international community. This mainly due to the SPLM poor management of the South. (When you have to choose between pest and cholera…). By putting Sharia high on the sunlight, NCP is just causing problems to western powers.
On one hand, they sign a peace agreement for Darfur to please West, on the other hand they spoil West hopes to have Sudan remaining united by promoting Sharia…

I really wonder how North will be able to conduct another double front war in 2012/2013… Or even before. Imposing Sharia is also a great opportunity for North to avoid 2012 referedum. If Bashir is re elected (And he will surely be) and he really goes hard on imposing Sharia in the whole country (North and South), this will definitevely be concidered as a casus belli by South. (And also as a grave breach in the CPA). Then no referendum, an immediat partition and a war that South is not necerely ready to fight at that point of time. And this despite rushing to arm itself.

[Stan]

U.S. Conventional Weapons Destruction Program Helps Sudan Overcome Legacies of War

The Office of Weapons Removal and Abatement in the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs has been helping the Sudanese people in the Nuba Mountains region, in Kassala State, Blue Nile State, and throughout much of South Sudan to confront these threats with nearly $20 million in humanitarian mine action and small arms/light weapons destruction assistance since 2005 as part of the U.S. Conventional Weapons Destruction (CWD) Program in Sudan.