Kevin, a tough topic, but I would strongly urge you to talk with your prof for the course and clear it with them before you hand in your outline. If they balk at looking at the "evolution of COIN" (whatever that might mean), then you need a fallback option. You might think about the neo-con belief that the Revolution in Military affairs blinded the perceptions that led to policy decisions to go into Iraq, and that the "evolution of COIN" is also, and in parallel, an evolution of the FP perceptions about the cost of this type of mission.

Cheers,

Marc