Bill: Totally agree that a strong raid into Afghanistan to punish the living crap out of AQ and then leave was the way to go. Tell the Taliban stay out of this, it isn't about you, do our business and then go home. Instead we took out the Taliban, installed a new government, and then took on the role of protector....

But to clarify some key points in my root causes argument, because AQ is a symptom of the problem, not the problem itself.

1. Illegitimate governments: I am very clear that the definition is through the eyes of the populace being governed, not some external party. That when the populace of a nation (or even some autonomous region that isn't really a state in western terms) does not recognize the legitimacy of the governance over them, you have a prime, strategic, causal factor for insurgency.

2. I never said we need to attack or reform these illegitimate governments, I said that we need to stop protecting and supporting them in the suppression of their own populaces. The second prime strategic causal factor for insurgency is the lack of a trusted, certain process that a populace can employ to affect governance legally and peacefully. I don't care what that process is. I don't think we need to force western values, democracy or voting on anyone. I do think we need to hold a hard line with this entire crop of autocratic despots whose populaces are filling the ranks of AQ on the road, and insurgent movements at home to devise and implement such processes. This will either lead to new governments that those respective populaces recognize the legitimacy of, or will bestow new popular legitimacy on the existing government. It will allow the populaces of these nations to enact their OWN reforms. Hubris indeed to attempt to shape in our image.

3. Everyone jumps from "We must support despotic dictators" to "we must abandon our influence in the Middle East." Is there really no middle ground? I refuse to believe that. We live in an era of Lazy Diplomacy. We are bigger and stronger so we either demand that others do as we wish them to under threat of economic or military violence; or if they refuse, we label them "rogue" and either ostracize them or attack them. We have become selfish bullies. Do what I say or I'll take my ball and go home, or kick your ass, depending on how I feel, and if I think you can hurt me or not (i.e., have nuclear weapons). We must find a middle ground in the Middle East. In another thread they talked about having as powerful as possible military, and then using it as rarely as possible. I agree. So long as everyone knows you also possess the will to use it quickly and judiciously when necessary. We have gotten lazy and now lead with the military option.

For Ken:

4. No question major mayhem has been wrought in the name of Communism and Islam. But there is also no question that major mayhem has been wrought in the name of Democracy, Christianity, etc, etc etc. It isn't the ideology one uses to motivate their populace to action that is to be feared, it is the underlying causal factors that promote the violence itself. Colonialism is a big problem today. The residue of Western imperialism will shape conflicts for years to come. Just as the residue of Greek imperialism shaped conflicts from the Balkans to India for hundreds of years. Just as the residue of Roman imperialism shaped conflicts for hundreds of years from the Levant to Great Britain. To fear and attack the ideology of those who rise up to throw off illegitimate or oppressive control measures is to fear the wrong thing. It is to fear the loud noise of a gun going off rather than the bullet headed for your brain. It is to counter the noise rather than to address why you are being shot at in the first place.


No, I stand firm on my two points of strategic COIN:

1. First ensure that the populace recognizes the legitimacy of its governance on their terms.

2. Second, ensure that the populace has legal, peaceful, trusted and certain measures in place to effect changes of governance.



Finally, to bring this home: As I watched the inaugural of President Obama, I found it very interesting how the media went on and on about how America was electing its first Black President; I also found it interesting how fired up about this fact the African American populace was (I had thought that insurgency was resolved, but no, it requires more work and constant nurturing). But what I found the most interesting was what no one was talking about. The most powerful man in the world, the leader of the most powerful nation in the world, was handing over that mantle to another man peacefully, as a matter of course, because the people had chosen a new leader and it was time to transfer in accordance with the laws of the land and with will of the people. And no one noticed.

In America this is as natural as breathing. No one notices oxygen when it is all around you. In many lands around the world there is no such "political oxygen." There are few things more noticeable than the lack of oxygen. When we support despotic, illegitimate leaders, it is Uncle Sam's hand that is on the knob of the oxygen tank. When the populaces of those countries seek to throw of those illegitimate, despotic governments, it is only natural that they seek first to take our hand off of that knob. We don't need to take our hand off the knob (i.e., pack up and go home), we just need to turn the damn oxygen on.