NIE on Iraq: A Turning Point - Threats Watch.

Today the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released the Key Judgments of the updated National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq. Contrary to the early interpretation of the report from some quarters it does not close the door on success.

A successful surge – or the broader idea that a political solution can only take root if there is a clamp-down on violence – will not be a waste of time or effort. Of course combat-related caveats to the viability of the best laid plans still apply.

Addressing the political issues in Iraq the Key Judgments are more news than intelligence: Shi’a are suspicious of the Sunni and of us; Sunni don’t like their change in status and worry that Iranian influence will only make their situation worse; the absence of mini-Titos makes progress difficult as factions-of-factions tend to complicate the political process; and the Kurds are about the only ones who have their act together enough to make something substantial happen for them and theirs...
NIE Not New - ZenPundit.

The much disputed Iraq NIE key judgments summary was released in an unclassified PDF version with a description of changes in analytical methodology. These were mildly interesting to me but any intel wonk types hoping for the addition of bold, untried, new analytical techniques is going to be disappointed. What was added should help enhance clarity for non-professional readers and make any artificial, imposed, analytical consensus look more...well...marginally artificial and imposed.

As for substance, the document is remarkable for its lack of surprises. There are complaints that the NIE has not taken into account the results of a successful surge campaign on Iraq. That is true, but the surge is a tactical manuver by the U.S. military that will not change the underlying strategic dynamic among Iraqi factions. It would simply create a zone of decreased conflict level and a breathing space for a negotiation of a political solution, it is not a political solution in itself. Someone actualy has to take advantage of what a successful surge provides...
U.S. a Bystander in Iraq, According to DNI - Westhawk.

... The next logical step for Admiral Fallon would be to get an assessment of the situation in Iraq. He should ask the highest authority, the Director of National Intelligence, responsible for assembling the work products of the entire U.S. intelligence community. Today, the DNI delivered his report on Iraq. Unfortunately for Admiral Fallon, soon to be responsible for Iraq and beyond, there doesn’t seem to be, by the U.S. intelligence community’s reckoning, much “realistic” or “practical” remaining for the U.S. in Iraq.

By the DNI’s reckoning, it appears as if the U.S.-led coalition force in Iraq is a minor bystander in the drama described in this intelligence estimate. The current U.S. strategy is to dampen down violence in Baghdad for a long enough period to allow the Iraqi government to become stronger and gain respect. But it seems there is little chance that the Shia and Kurds will issue enough concessions to induce Iraq’s Sunni Arabs to accept Iraq’s new governing reality, Shi’ite and Kurdish control. The DNI’s scenario for a political happy ending in Iraq seems highly improbable...
NIE: It's A Civil War - Captain's Quarters.

The intelligence community released its National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq yesterday, a nine-page document that the Washington Post correctly characterizes as "bleak". It adopts the term "civil war" for the ongoing conflict in Iraq, and at the same time notes that the term doesn't do justice to the myriad of conflicts active in the country at the moment. However, it also warns about the effect a withdrawal would have on the region...