South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[M-A Lagrange]

No rescheduling for elections, Sudan president says

The Sudanese president and head of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) Omer Hassan Al-Bashir emphasized today that elections will be held on time despite mounting calls by opposition groups that they be postponed.
He said that the western region of Darfur is now secure and stable which eliminates any justification for postponing the elections, noting that the 1986 polls were not delayed due to the war in the South.
The SPLM has vehemently refused any move to postpone the referendum process and many think tank groups fear a return to civil war should the self determination process be disrupted. However, many post-referendum issues have yet to be addressed particularly nationality, national debt, water agreement with the border demarcation process well behind schedule.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34252

So elections will take place at planned date. Anyways, it was almost impossible to postpound those elections. This even if the process to educate the population in South is absolutely not fully completed…

Sudan’s NCP says committed to implementing Islamic law

Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) reiterated its position on implementing Islamic Shari’a law in the country as part of its elections programme.
This week at a meeting between NCP and Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) in Cairo hosted by the Egyptian government discussed the issue of Islamic law implementation. Both sides were deadlocked on their stances with SPLM calling for a secular state.
But the Sudanese Undersecretary of Foreign affairs Mutrif Sideeg and member of the NCP delegation said that this position is not negotiable.
“We will not abandon our Shari’a nor do we call on the others to accept what they do not accept. We accepted the principle that citizenship is the basis of rights and duties, and we have accepted the principle of unity in diversity, and therefore will not commit others to what we are committed to. We do not accept that the others void our personality, religion and identity under any circumstances,” he said.
Currently semi-autonomous South Sudan is excluded from the application of Islamic law but observers say that this has deepened the rift between North and the South and diminished hopes of making unity attractive in the 2011 referendum.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34253


Well, the question of imposing Sharia has been one of the many trigger of the South Sudan war. But in that case, it is definitevely the Sudan Unity policy that is targetted.
South will never accept and North will never drop it. But those NCP is targetting are the international community.
Unity is attractive basically for none of the sudanese but partition is not attractive for Sudan’s neightbors nor the international community. This mainly due to the SPLM poor management of the South. (When you have to choose between pest and cholera…). By putting Sharia high on the sunlight, NCP is just causing problems to western powers.
On one hand, they sign a peace agreement for Darfur to please West, on the other hand they spoil West hopes to have Sudan remaining united by promoting Sharia…

I really wonder how North will be able to conduct another double front war in 2012/2013… Or even before. Imposing Sharia is also a great opportunity for North to avoid 2012 referedum. If Bashir is re elected (And he will surely be) and he really goes hard on imposing Sharia in the whole country (North and South), this will definitevely be concidered as a casus belli by South. (And also as a grave breach in the CPA). Then no referendum, an immediat partition and a war that South is not necerely ready to fight at that point of time. And this despite rushing to arm itself.

[Stan]

U.S. Conventional Weapons Destruction Program Helps Sudan Overcome Legacies of War

The Office of Weapons Removal and Abatement in the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs has been helping the Sudanese people in the Nuba Mountains region, in Kassala State, Blue Nile State, and throughout much of South Sudan to confront these threats with nearly $20 million in humanitarian mine action and small arms/light weapons destruction assistance since 2005 as part of the U.S. Conventional Weapons Destruction (CWD) Program in Sudan.

[M-A Lagrange]

Oil revenue in Sudan slashed by 60% in 2009: GoSS

March 1, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – The proceeds from oil exports in Sudan has declined by a staggering 60% in 2009 with revenues measuring approximately $2.5 billion compared to $ 6.5 billion a year ago, according to a report compiled by the Government of South Sudan (GoSS).
The report said that oil prices reached an all time high of $132 in mid-2008 before dropping to $35 in the first quarter of 2009.
The global financial crisis that started in late 2008 has hit hard the economic activity throughout the world reducing demand for oil.
Last year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that Sudan’s foreign exchange reserves were sunk across the years from $2 billion in mid-2008 to $300 million in March 2009, which covers only 2 weeks of imports.
The IMF said this was caused by the fall in oil prices, which is Sudan’s main export, among other things.
The world financial body criticized Sudan’s 2009 budget saying that its underlying assumptions proved wrong with forecasted oil price of $65 per barrel compared to updated projected figures of $36.8 for 2009 and $44.7 in 2010.
GoSS said that the federal government’s share of oil production in 2009 was 83.7 million barrels, while the share of partners was around 77.1 million barrels. Total revenue from oil of amounted about $ 1.5 billion while oil used in domestic refineries totaled $ 1.06.
The share of the federal government was approximately $ 1.4 billion while GoSS share was $ 1.06 billion.
In Abyei, the report said that oil revenues there reached about $215.3 million with $64.6 million going to the Federal Government, $67.2 million to GoSS, $4.1 million each to the states of South Kordofan, Warrap, tribes of Dinka Ngok and Misseriya and $66.8 million to Abyei fund.
Some 98 per cent of south Sudan’s non-aid income comes from oil, while the corresponding figure for the north is 60-70 per cent
About 75 per cent of Sudan’s proven reserves of 6.3bn barrels are in the south but the pipeline that carries the oil to export terminals and refineries runs through the north. The south needs Khartoum’s co-operation to sell its oil; the north needs revenues from its neighbor’s resources.
Last month a senior GoSS official said that the South may continue to share oil proceeds with the North for a limited time following secession to prevent an economic collapse there.
The separation of Sudan into a two states will deny the North billions of dollars in revenue generating from vast oilfields in the south of the country. Currently the North and the South are splitting the proceeds of crude in accordance with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in 2005.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34298

One of the comments on this article shows pretty clearly how the situation is in fact: the pipes and the oil plants are in North. So oil which is the main source of revenues from South is still in the hands of North.
In case of war, as South seems to be more and more willing, access to oil and revenues will still be an issue for South.
Yes they can “pre sell” their oil but for how long?
Also, as we all know, low cost wars do not exist. Partition and the war that will result in it just after will only put South under another dependency. .

In a very interesting article from Les Afriques (unfortunately in French), Sudan wars are analysed as the first cold war like opposition between US and China. I recommend it.
http://www.lesafriques.com/actualite...?article=22613
Also, I recommend this article from panapress. http://www.panapress.com/newslatf.as...dte=15/02/2010
Despite using old data, the article shows quite well why the construction of a pipeline between South Sudan and Kenya is not something for tomorrow, especially if it is China who builds it.
Unfortunately, Uganda is not the best and quickest way to the sea.

What intrigues me in that war to come story is the position of Russia. But may be Stan can provide an interesting light on that particular point. Selling weapons is not really a position. Especially as Small arms reports tend to prove that China is the biggest dealer in the place.
I witnessed Russia interest for Africa re rise in DRC. I would be surprise if they just play on the replacement bench for the coming North/South round.

[M-A Lagrange]

A partial response on Russia policy over Sudan:

Russia's Special Envoy to Sudan Mikhail Margelov will begin a four-day visit to Sudan on Tuesday, March 9. He will be heading a delegation that includes businessmen.


But more interresting:
Taha, Kiir to represent NCP & SPLM in Kenya’s IGAD summit
March 7, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – The First Vice president of Sudan Salva Kiir and 2nd Vice President Ali Osman Taha will fly to Nairobi next week to take part in the extraordinary summit of Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Nairobi that starts on Tuesday, state media reported today.
The conference held primarily with the purpose of bridging differences between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) on the implementation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34352

[M-A Lagrange]

An interresting analyses of EU policy and forseen challenges:

EU policy in Sudan, 2010-2011
The European Union is closely following the evolution of the situation as the current events could lead to a resumption of the conflict between North and South, that in the past claimed two million lives and displaced four million persons in the region and abroad. Although the conflict in Darfur is still not solved, and there are other dormant conflicts in the East, Kordofan, Blue Nile, Nuba mountains and the North, resumption of the North – South conflict would have dire consequences. The instability of Sudan means instability for the region and possible fuelling of other regional conflicts, with important security and humanitarian consequences.
Currently four scenarios can be envisaged for Southern Sudan post 2011 : forced unity, forced secession, agreed unity and agreed secession. While the first two will certainly lead to the resumption of war between North and South, agreed unity may result in the implosion of the South. The scenario for agreed secession, the most likely option if the referendum is respected, has to be closely accompanied by coherent and unified approach of the international community in order to ensure a viable transition.
For the past five years, implementation of the provisions of the CPA has been delayed and within the next 12 months, Sudan’s future as a country will be decided. Before the expiry of the CPA in July 2011 and bearing in mind the high risk of the resumption of hostilities, we are faced with the following choices :
1. To seek a global solution to Sudan’s conflicts, by negotiating an additional protocol for the CPA, which would allow for the postponement of national elections by 6 months to a year. Within this time frame, a permanent cease fire would be put in place in Darfur, allowing for the inclusion of Darfur’s population in the elections. There would have to be a change in the laws to provide for free and fair elections, and allow for post 2011 referendum arrangements. This would have to be ensured by a coherent and unified international community approach (3) .
2. To address issues separately, to continue with the elections timeframe, to support the 2011 referendum and to focus on post-2011 referendum arrangements. Separately, to work on the negotiation of a Darfur ceasefire and peace agreement, and advance from there on the preparation of a conducive environment for the next elections. This implies a unified IC approach, and a “carrot-and- stick” policy for North and South to prevent the resumption of hostilities.
3. To delink the presidential elections from the CPA and from the referendum. The elections would be postponed until a conducive environment is in place – within a reasonable time frame - while support would be given to measures going in that direction, independent from the referendum. The referendum and post-referendum arrangements based on interdependence would be supported (5) , win-win strategies would be developed for collaboration between North and South, and development and governance in Southern Sudan would be supported to prevent it from being born as a failed state.
Promote a settlement on Darfur with the utmost urgency.
http://www.affaires-strategiques.inf...hp?article2963

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan opposition want elections moved to November, slams UNMIS official
A number of presidential candidates in Sudan has jointly called on the April elections to be postponed by seven months till next November and submitted a proposed formation for the National elections committee (NEC).
The Umma Party runner for president Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi hosted a meeting at his residence in Omdurman agreed on steps that need to be taken for achieving democratic transformation and establishing an "impartial" board to monitor the work of the NEC in terms of administration and finances, creating a body consisting of presidential nominees with rotating head, rescheduling elections to resolve a number outstanding issues.
The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) representative at the summit Ibrahim Ghandour promised to convey the demands to president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir and arrange a meeting with them to discuss their requests.
Absent from the meeting were the candidates from the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) Yasir Arman, Democratic Unionist Party Hatim Al-Sir, Sudan Communist Party Mohamed Ibrahim Nugud. It was not immediately clear why they did not attend.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34416

This has been the big debate for the past weeks. But finally, NEC decided to have the election in April as planned.
During that time campaign goes as planed: free, fair and through debate:

Biemnom MP assassinated in Juba
March 14, 2010, (KHARTOUM) — Honorable Bol Deng Kot was slain by unknown uniformed men on Wednesday, March 10, resulting in condemnation by authorities and the citizenry of Biemnon county of the southern state of Unity.
Honorable Bol Deng Kot was a member of parliament in the regional legislative assembly in Juba, representing Biemnom constituency as a member of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement.
Without the endorsement of the SPLM Political Bureau, he chose to stand as an independent candidate. But his popularity in the area compelled SPLM leadership to promise him a parliamentary seat from among the 40 seats allocated to SPLM after the latest negotiations with the ruling National Congress Party.

http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/...RecordId=32438

SPLM is quite tuff on independant candidates all over the place. It is clear that the transition from military to political organisation and the possibility to face electoral defeat is difficult for them.
South America has shown that former military organisations have the tendancy to loose elections. And the temptation to resolve that probem through force is high.

An interresting report from NRC
http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/...anDisaster.pdf

The border is not set and it does create problems. Last week the SPLA have announced that nomads from North did attack a SPLA out post in the border area.
(French media link below)

http://lci.tf1.fr/filnews/monde/accr...s-5770152.html

[M-A Lagrange]

South Sudan army accused of killing and raping civilians in C. Equatoria
March 23, 2010 (JUBA) – Southern Sudan army, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) has been accused of killing and raping civilians in Central Equatoria state.

Government reshuffle in Lakes brings two spy men into power
March 22, 2010 (RUMBEK) – Five new county commissioners were appointed in Lakes state by presidential decree of the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS). Two of the appointees have served in special security branches.
In the new decree No. 32/3/2010, President Salva Kiir Mayardit relieved five commissioners, two state advisors and the state finance minister. He was acting on the recommendation of the caretaker governor to relieve the officials.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34516

The same is happening in many other Sates, especially when they are deployed in rural areas to secure potential threatening ethnic groups. The same with the State representatives. The caretakers have for mandate to secure the elections.

This shows and enlight all the difficulty of “securing” elections in a country when the government is temptated to use “quiete terror” as political campaign tool.
The military coup is going on and SPLA is placing its minutemen…


On the other side…

Bashir issues expulsion warning to foreign poll observers
March 22, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — The Sudanese president Omar Hassan al-Bashir today issued a strong warning to foreign election monitors threatening to expel them if they call for delaying the polls scheduled for April.
The warning appears directed at the US based Carter Center which last week called for a slight delay in elections because of logistical and procedural issues.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34508

Franckly, a slight delay for logistic reason is reasonable but would mean no elections before 2011…