COIN case: LRA Lords Resistance Army

[M-A Lagrange]

There are several problematics in the LRA hunt.
The first one is the leakage of information. One of the parameters is that Kampala is not really playing "franc jeux". Kampala does have many interests in keeping the LRA as an active threat in DRC and in South Sudan. Does not mean they do it but this could be affecting their motivation. Also, if DRC is a chaotic failed state, South Sudan is a unborn dead body. So keeping the LRA active gives a good reason to Kampala to deploy troops up to CAR. I would call that the Rwandan strategy.
The second thing is that LRA released an important number of former members. When they are not integrated into UPDF, they are sent back home or to the refugees camps in South Sudan by the UN. They receive no psychological support, no reintegration programs… Even UPDF is complaining about UNICEF Sh@@ty work.
As former LRA members cannot reintegrate, they replicate what Kony taught them for a living.

Hope this helps to understand the mess.

[davidbfpo]

Hurrah!

Senior Lord's Resistance Army commander Charles Arop, who was implicated in leading a massacre on Christmas Day that killed at least 143 Congolese, has surrendered to the Ugandan military, the army spokesman told AFP on Thursday.

"He was only left with one fighter so what choice did he have?" Lieutenant-Colonel Felix Kulayigye said, adding that Arop surrendered on Tuesday to Ugandan forces stationed in the northeast of the Democractic Republic of Congo.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091105...gorebelsunrest

davidbfpo

[Tom Odom]

Hurrah!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091105...gorebelsunrest

davidbfpo

I vote for reintegration as fertilizer

[James Bean]

Yeah Arop was captured. Like his unit, he is a fragment.

LRA is still around. Like the election in 2011, and the Sth Sudan Referendum next year.They're there too! I'm sure LRA will be a pest in either case.

The Red Pepper (local Ugandan tabloid) reported yesterday that Konyi has oedema. I reckon he could still move pretty quickly on chubby stumps though...

As I see it, LRA went 'regional' a few years back; perhaps the generic DDR a la Arica model might have worked on a sub-regional insurgency in Acholiland. Now the situation is far more complex.

Getting a balance of IO, UPDF military ops, and a believable sense of progress in Acholiland is really hard. That said, UPDF has arrested 20-odd different insurgencies since '86.

For starters, the usual donor-driven Mack truck with a 70cc Honda engine is predictably not making much progress from Kampala heading for Gulu...can't even get the f--kin thing out of the office it's so full of sh-t!

Visibility is all about "Brought to you by <insert your favourite NGO>". Objective-focused IO is not happening, leaving government looking incompetent. To those who understand recovery, reintegration, and stabilization; making government look incompetent - directly or indirectly - is plain wrong.

Loads of the usual infrastructure-for-all, HIV, GBV, quick-fix programmes that are basically paliative. Most of the NGOs implement-to-form virtually ignoring what is an incredibly dynamic socio-cultural, political, and trauma-riven context.

It will take a lot more imagination, effort, and resources than this to shift Uganda from a 'between-conflict context' to a 'post-conflict context'.

I have written a couple of reports as part of our reintegration work that might interest you folks:

http://uganda.iom.int/publications.htm

[Jedburgh]

IPI, 25 Nov 09: From Uganda to the Congo and Beyond: Pursuing the Lord's Resistance Army

In 2008, the Ugandan military pursued the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), a northern Ugandan rebel group, into neighboring Congo during the military incursion known as “Operation Lightning Thunder.” This paper provides the historical context for this pursuit, including the historical background of the northern Uganda war that produced the LRA, and an analysis of the Juba peace process that began in 2006 and unraveled over the course of 2008.

The paper also examines the three months of “Operation Lightning Thunder,” focusing on official statements, press and NGO reports, and a newsmagazine report that first appeared in June 2009 challenging the official Ugandan version of events.

Finally, the paper explores what might come next that could contribute to peace and stability in northern Uganda and the region as a whole.

[M-A Lagrange]

Congo LRA Rebels Threaten Attacks During Christmas
http://www.easybourse.com/bourse/act...s-group-775146

UN Congo force put on alert against LRA rebel threat – AfricaTimesNews
The U.N. peacekeeping force in Congo has put its soldiers on high alert after reports that Ugandan rebels are threatening to carry out mass killings of the kind they conducted last Christmas, a spokesman said on Friday.
Ugandan Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) rebels, who murdered over 800 civilians around Christmas and early January last year, have threatened a fresh wave of attacks despite a year of multi-national military operations against them, analysts warn.
“We are taking things seriously,” said Kevin Kennedy, head of public information for the U.N.’s Congo peacekeeping mission. Kennedy said information about the threats by the rebels had been passed on by aid workers in recent days and weeks.

Xmass, bloody Xmass… says the song

[Steve the Planner]

James Message:

"Visibility is all about "Brought to you by <insert your favourite NGO>". Objective-focused IO is not happening, leaving government looking incompetent. To those who understand recovery, reintegration, and stabilization; making government look incompetent - directly or indirectly - is plain wrong.

Loads of the usual infrastructure-for-all, HIV, GBV, quick-fix programmes that are basically paliative. Most of the NGOs implement-to-form virtually ignoring what is an incredibly dynamic socio-cultural, political, and trauma-riven context.

It will take a lot more imagination, effort, and resources than this to shift Uganda from a 'between-conflict context' to a 'post-conflict context'."

Gee, could we insert XXXX for Uganda and have this story be universal.

[M-A Lagrange]

FARDC captures 6 LRA rebels in Duru:
Capt Alex Ochen was capture with 5 others by the FARDC on 18 and 20 December 2009.
full article (in french): http://www.digitalcongo.net/article/63531

Some good news in fact.

[carl]

The Ugandan Army reports that Bok Abudema was killed recently by the UPDF in the Central African Republic.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8437886.stm

This seems another in a slow but steady stream of LRA commanders being killed or captured. It is interesting they appear to be going down alone or with only one or two followers. Perhaps the UPDF has figured out what to do and is doing it.

[davidbfpo]

I caught this BBC radio report AM today and it is bad: http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today...00/8444884.stm

Item is at 0743hrs and is four minutes long:

Ritual killings of children in Uganda may be more common than previously thought, a BBC investigation has found. Tim Whewell reports from northern Uganda.

I hope this is available beyond the UK.

[davidbfpo]

The earlier BBC item featured Thursday night on BBC Newsnight: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode...ht_07_01_2010/ and since there are often problems with viewing - this item has text and an IPOD radio broadcast:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programme...ht/8441813.stm

Cross-reference made on another thread where issue has appeared, from Post No.22 onwards, amidst an exchange:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...?t=2038&page=2

[carl]

The quote below is from this story

http://allafrica.com/stories/200912300068.html

in allafrica.com. I thought it interesting because it may shine a little light on how the UPDF is going after the the LRA.

Samuel Obali, who surrendered in November, said they were also forced to surrender because of the constant pursuit by the UPDF forces in the CAR, DR-Congo and Southern Sudan. We had no food, water, medicine and lacked communication with the central command. We had to organise ourselves and surrender to the Congolese Armed Forces in order to survive.

[davidbfpo]

Evidence of the massacre (by the LRA) of at least 321 people in Democratic Republic of Congo has been uncovered by the BBC.

Link:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8587305.stm

[Rex Brynen]

DR Congo: Lord’s Resistance Army Rampage Kills 321
Regional Strategy Needed to End Rebel Group’s Atrocities and Apprehend Leaders

Human Rights Watch
MARCH 28, 2010
Anneke Van Woudenberg, senior Africa researcher

(Kampala) - The rebel Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) killed at least 321 civilians and abducted 250 others, including at least 80 children, during a previously unreported four-day rampage in the Makombo area of northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo in December 2009, Human Rights Watch said in a report released today.

"The Makombo massacre is one of the worst ever committed by the LRA in its bloody 23-year history, yet it has gone unreported for months," said Anneke Van Woudenberg, senior Africa researcher at Human Rights Watch. "The four-day rampage demonstrates that the LRA remains a serious threat to civilians and is not a spent force, as the Ugandan and Congolese governments claim."

The 67-page report, "Trail of Death: LRA Atrocities in Northeastern Congo," is the first detailed documentation of the Makombo massacre and other atrocities by the LRA in Congo in 2009 and early 2010. The report, based on a Human Rights Watch fact-finding mission to the massacre area in February, documents the brutal killings during the well-planned LRA attack from December 14 to 17 in the remote Makombo area of Haute Uele district.

[Michael F]

I've been reading this report and a few things AMAZE me:

First, it took 12 weeks for MONUC to send an enquiry team. They say it was because of the remoteness of the killings grounds but it seems like a STUPId excuse: The FARDC and UPDF had troops there 2 days after the massacre (and they went on foot, MONUC has helicopters), refugees from this area have been flooding the city of Niangara (2 days of walk from the killing grounds)...so MONUC can't do with helicopters or on foot what FARDC, UPDF or civilians can do ?????

Second, MONUC knew end Dec 09, UPDF, FARDC a few days before,....and they kept on saying the LRA was "neutralized", with Rudia II being a "mop up" operation. These were overoptimistic statements despite knowing the truth ? a Lie thus ?????

Finally, the LRA now has some 200 new recruits via this operation and has proven to be able to do a lot of damage in a very short time. The months before, they were walking around in the same area without being hindered by any UPDF-FARDC actions (despite UPDF or FARDC forces never more than 50 Km from them).

My conclusion, everybody kept on saying the LRA was neutralized in DRC but knew it was false. Rudia II failed completely and MONUC, FARDC, UPDF (AFRICOM?) refused to admit it publicly.

Knowing the LRA, their next attack would be even more violent to make sure no "cover up" is possiblle.

[M-A Lagrange]

"The population in DRC is not concentrated. So, for the LRA to get time to collect 300 people and kill them, they need days not hours to do so," he said, adding: "In Barlonyo, they were able to kill about 200 because people were in an IDP camp. What about people settled in their villages in a forested region?"
Col. Kulayigye wondered whether the Congo army would not have got wind of LRA activities within those four days and gone to rescue its people. He said the UPDF intelligence indicates that the LRA has less than 200 fighters who have no capacity to kill with impunity.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201003290001.html

Personally, I hate whem officials denie killings in Africa. It always reminds me the sentence: in those countries (African countries), massacres does not count...

But unfortunatelly, may be we do have copy cats there...

[Michael F]

Personally, I hate whem officials denie killings in Africa. It always reminds me the sentence: in those countries (African countries), massacres does not count...

But unfortunatelly, may be we do have copy cats there...

The HRW clearly states that FARDC have been informed of the LRA incursion 02 days after it started and immediately informed the UPDF. Both UPDf and FARDC immediately dispatched local small units to the area and reached it 02 days later.

UPDF is trying to shift the blame for its inefficiency to the FARDC (an easy usual suspect in that matter).

Also, the fact that the information about those massacres only leaked now (12 weeks after FARDC, UPDF, MONUC and others...knew) is for me a clear prove of a cover up. Now it has been leaked they can only minimize it.

BTW it doesn't really matter as the US Senate already passed its LRA bill giving Kampala more money and FOA in that matter.

[M-A Lagrange]

"These claims of massacres coming almost four months late are yet another fabrication by NGOs, which are advocating war," Justine Labeja, LRA’s Nairobi-based spokesman, told Reuters.
"Yes, we are in Congo but we have no problem with the Congolese people or its government and we continue to call for a ceasefire to end this war," he further said.
The rebel official also slammed the United Nations saying they want to use their group to justify their return into Congo. "The U.N. are being kicked out of Congo against their will but they now want to use us as an excuse to stay there," he said.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34588

Now, all this is becoming silly. The LRA can now denie its participation into those massacres. Thanks UPDF...
Well thanks also to MONUC to be SO efficient!
Unfortunately, no one is expecting anything from FARDC and that's may be the best thing.

[M-A Lagrange]

LRA Rebel Pins Sudan On Support

Kampala — THE Sudan government is in touch with the Lord's Resistance Army command and has given the rebels fresh supplies of food and medicines, a captured commander has said.
The LRA political commissar, Okello 'Mission', told journalists in Kampala that he was part of the LRA team that trekked to the Darfur region in Sudan where they met officers of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) on October 4, 2009.
He said their delegation was led by Caesar Acellam and they met with the SAF brigade commander in Darfur, Col. Hamdou, and an un-named lieutenant colonel said to be the regional chief of intelligence.
He said Khartoum solicited for the meeting.
"The subject of the discussion was to resume the partnership with the government of Sudan," Okello Mission said.

Okello Mission, 30, was captured by UPDF soldiers at Ezo in Southern Sudan after a brief shoot-out in the evening of March 31. Okello was in a unit of 10 rebels, led by Felly Otimi, an escort to LRA leader Joseph Kony.
He graduated from Makerere University in 2004 with a bachelor's degree in computer science and joined the LRA as a peace negotiator in 2006. A relative of Kony, he hails from Lalogi in Gulu district and holds a Democratic Party (DP) membership card.
He joined the Juba peace talks at the same time with Santa Okot, Peter Obina, Yusuf Adek and Quinto Kidega. He said he remained with the rebels to explain the draft final peace agreement to Kony.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201004060006.html

An interesting article on the LRA. I really recommend it for all those who follow the question.

[carl]

Here is a link to a New York Times story and video about the Ugandan army's continuing effort to kill the LRA.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/wo...ica/11lra.html

The video has two brief scenes of the air support being given. One scene shows a mighty AN-2 being refueled by chunky anglo guys who I would bet 12 dollars are either Russians or Ukranians, Africa standard. The other scene shows a P68 Observer, not a common aircraft, being started up by its' crew, one of whom was a young anglo guy in what looked like a military flight suit. That guy did not look at all like a Russian.