The future with Karzai: a debate (merged thread with new title)

[Steve the Planner]

Despite the commotion, I was very pleased with the emerging solutions today.

Two weeks ago, Bing West gave a very clear and cogent report on the Marjah operation, ending with the routine warning that it all depends on the ability of the Afghans to step up for the later Hold, and Build phases.

In the succeeding weeks, President Obama stopped by to reportedly pressure President Karzai to get his act together. We all heard the responses, ranging from Karzai's claimed threat to join the Taliban, and Galbraith's belief that Karzai is literally smoking something.

Out of all that comes a more contextual recommendation from West in today's NYT: How to Save Afghanistan From Karzai. Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/07/op...ml?ref=opinion

Bottom Line, in my read of it, was the recommendation that Karzai be bypassed, especially by US dollars, and that the mission be right-sized to a realistic one of clear, hold, turn over. Turn over to who? The Afghan military? Turn over what? Responsibility for policing and governance?

What about the locals? Work with the ones that will work with us. Leave the ones that are puppets of Kabul.

He recognizes the risk of turning Afghanistan into a military dictatorship, but points to examples (Philipines, South Korea) where that worked out OK. Bottom line, though is that it is for Afghans (not the US) to make their governments work, and not for us to prop up bad ones.

A simple op-ed, but loaded with meaning and realities. Defining a workable military mission. Defining a credible and actionable answer to Amb. Eikenberry's framing of Karzai as an unreliable partner.

I assume that implicit in West's next steps is neither a "Yankee Go Home" mission ender, nor an end to substantial US civilian stabilization/reconstruction. (Although a lot of Joe Biden's camp will here this as familiar).

But the bottom-line is nuts-and-bolts practical, deeply connected to reality, and, refreshingly, an answer that does not raise more questions than it answers.