Horn of Africa historical (pre-2011): catch all thread

[Brian Scott]

why not tell us why we should commit forces there and should have a strategy element that says that's necessary, much less a good idea?

I guess I left that wide open.
I do not think we should commit forces there. Absolutely not. I just anticipate that invading Somalia will be the next knee-jerk reaction war that we start in order to help a sitting President get reelected.

C'mon, we are spending about $60 Million per month on patrolling the waters off Somalia with a Nuclear Carrier Task Force, using $30 Million aircraft to look for barefoot teenagers in skiffs high on khat. Meanwhile, piracy is on the rise.

Our CIA is spending about $40 Million per month (WAG) buying the loyalties of a dozen militias, some of whom are then using that money to fight each other.

Folks expect it to be a "cakewalk," and for the locals to shower our troops with ... do they have chocolates or flowers there ?

The only solution to the high seas piracy is taking action ashore, and we don't trust any locals with that responsibility. A year ago, President Farole of Puntland (who we do not even officially recognize) said he could stamp out piracy with $8 Million in aid, and I believe him. We declined to give it to him, even after he groveled in a Congressional hearing.

But what I find most persuasive are the accusations coming out of State and DOD that AQAP has relocated there. The militias that the CIA is paying are having no impact: Islamic radical groups continue to consolidate power.

It will start as a training mission, with advisors only. Remember Southeast Asia ?
I am pretty sure that there are indigenous leaders in Somaliland and Puntland who could fight both of these fights more effectively than we ever could, but our foreign policy is not so flexible as to be able to accord respect to any Somali leaders.
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