South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[M-A Lagrange]

Washington is prepared for South Sudan secession – Gration
"Looking at the realities on the ground, it is highly likely that the south will chose independence," Gration said.
Refugees International, a US based group in a report released today urged the United Nations, non-governmental organizations and donor governments to draw up plans for possible conflict around the 2011 referendum.
Ahead of the multiparty election and the referendum of 2011, the group said the US and international community "must do everything possible to ensure that the governments in north and south Sudan reach agreement on outstanding issues before the referendum, the humanitarian community must simultaneously prepare to respond if conflict erupts around the upcoming political events".
"I don’t see that the north has to reinvade the south and start the war again," Gration said. "If we can resolve these issues, I think there is a fairly good chance that ... the south can have a civil divorce, not a civil war."
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34547

I fully agree there are very few reasons why North would reinvade South. But there are many reason for the South to invade North.
First of them is that it’s pay back time for the South. Not the best reason but a real one.
Secondly, the oil payment. With all the money North has to give back and is not willing to… I know many countries who would go to war.
Finally: finish Garang job and change the North… Utopia…

Lakes’ Agaar-Pakam and Warrap’s Luanyjang sign peace
The communities of Dinka Agaar-Pakam of Rumbek North County of Lakes State and Luanyjang of Tonj East County of Warap State have agreed to settle their differences on Tuesday at the end of a three day peace and reconciliation conference held in Wunlit payam of Tonj East County.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34541

The country is just a mosaic of peace agreements between tribes and sometimes including the government…
Preventing civil war is also one of the major concern. And what is better than a war with North to hide a internal civil war and “ethnic cleasing”?

[M-A Lagrange]

Top UN Official Stresses National Ownership of Upcoming Elections

"Elections need to take place according to timelines subscribed by the CPA [Comprehensive Peace Agreement], and they have to be conducted in a conducive atmosphere to ensure a free and fair process," said Haile Menkerios today in Khartoum, in his first press conference since becoming the Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) and head of UNMIS.
"The CPA, however, is an agreement by the two Parties. And should the two Parties decide whether to have the elections on time or should they want to postpone them for a time, it is up to them," the Special Representative added.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201003290002.html

I believe it's a new approach for ownership: this belongs to me so I have the right to not do it. With election and democratization it's kind of funny/fuzzy.
I own elections so I have the right to not have it... But I stay a legitimete populace representative government.

Personnally, I love it!
And now, ladies and gentlemen, welcome the democraticly non elected dictators! Super cool!

Just for fun, here is the link for the Amnesty international sudan election observers briefing:
http://www.amnesty.org/fr/library/in...54/009/2010/en

[M-A Lagrange]

Yassir Arman quits Sudan presidential poll

A leading contender for president of Sudan has withdrawn his candidacy, casting more doubt over the country’s first fully-contested poll since 1986.
The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) said Yassir Arman would not stand against President Omar al-Bashir.
The SPLM – former rebels from the south – blamed the continuing conflict in the Darfur region and “electoral irregularities” for his withdrawal.

http://www.africa-times-news.com/201...idential-poll/

Some even speak of a secret agreement:

Sudan opposition stunned by Arman’s withdrawal amid talk of secret NCP-SPLM deal
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34607

SPLM can say what ever they want, this was proposed to them longtime ago by Bashir.
There is nothing secret neither: NCP did not propose candidates for the Souh sudan presidentitial post neither for the States Governors.

Bashir and Kiir shared the cake and f### ##u the people, the West and your stupid elections...
Welcome in the new democratic Sudan!

Sometimes we should be a little harder with the people we help for decades!

[M-A Lagrange]

Is the boycott of the election really a surprise in Sudan? That’s the real question. The CPA, the core agreement leading to those elections has been signed by 2 parties only: NCP (represented by Bashir) and SPLM (represented by Garang).
What was the meaning of the CPA at that time? The opening of Sudan to democracy? Absolutely not!
It was a peace agreement between two opponents to cease the conflict. Democratisation of Sudan was like the sherry on the top of the cake, a collateral effect of the process. It was Garang objective. But Garang is no more and the CPA became the baseline agreement for the separation of Sudan in 2 independent bodies.
If you look closely at the election process in Sudan you can see that NCP is almost not present in South (at least not at decision making level). SPLM had only to find a good argument that would please the opinion and blame Bashir to do the same in North. And that’s what they did.

Did we really want to have a democratic Sudan?
Definitively not!
South Sudan is not unified and even less united. In most of the country, SPLA, SSPS and other organised forces are not capable to hold the monopoly of violence. So they cannot rule the place by the law as they do not have the capacity to enforce the law. The Rule of Law approach failed not because SPLM was not capable (SPLM capable of it is another question) but because the State administration was not functioning. So, for external and regional powers, South Sudan is more stable if there is a fake democracy.
In North, Rule of Law could have been implemented. But do regional and external powers want extremist Muslim parties in power. Does Egypt accept the idea to have a Muslim Brotherhood safe heaven as neighbour? Do the Western countries loose their influence in the sub region by allowing an extremist Muslim party to come in power? Absolutely not and every body acknowledge it.
The end of stabilization being stability in the country but also in the sub region, Sudan elections were doomed since the very first day John Garang died.

So what went wrong?
Nothing!
It’s only that the comprehension of CPA has evolved but not the position of bodies as the Carter Center or international NGO.
SPLM and NCP took beats and pieces of CPA as a draft of they separation agreement. And SPLM is not a master player...

What are Sudan elections really questioning in stabilization process is the definition of the end.
Is “fair and transparent democratic Nation” stabilization operation’s end?
During Cold War, the political model was at stake as it was reflecting an opposition of 2 economical models (Capitalism VS Communism). Nowadays, the real post Cold War consensus is the supremacy of capitalistic economical model but certainly not the democratic political model. But we are still focussed on the Cold War consensus of installation of democratic process as the end.
Stabilization operations, to be successful have to be revised. In highly economically degraded environment, what builds a real State legitimacy is not only the respect of the law but it is capacity to provide an economically population centric protective environment.
Otherwise, we will always end up with unstable regimes, elected but non democratic, weak and incapable to protect their population… And finally delaying wars but never ending them.
May be buying time is all what we can do.

[M-A Lagrange]

Renewed Conflict in Sudan

A key challenge facing the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended the civil war in Sudan is whether the January 2011 referendum in which the South and the oil-rich region of Abeyi can vote to secede from the North is honored. Other triggers for renewed conflict between the north and south include political manipulation of the forthcoming general elections by the ruling party, failure to complete border demarcation prior to the referendum, and disagreement over-post referendum oil revenue distribution. The author calls on all stakeholders to enforce the CPA but singles out the United States as pivotal. To this end, she urges the United States and the international community to unequivocally back southern self-determination through robust diplomatic engagement so that neither party has incentive to renege on its commitments to the CPA. The author also recommends that the United States not endorse an election result that falls short of the minimal standards of credibility, which should be clearly defined in advance. Finally, she urges the United States to lead in preparing for the highly probable result of a separate southern Sudan.

http://africacenter.org/2010/04/rene...lict-in-sudan/

An interesting communication from council of Foreign Relations

Otherwise, an interesting development of the election boycott:

Withdrawn SPLM candidate violated Elections Act, says NEC
According to NEC’s Jersa Kide, Mr. Arman’s recent withdrawal should have taken place within a period of not less than 45 days prior to polling day, provided he notified the Commission of his actions in a signed written form that would have been legally authenticated.
Citing section 45 (3) of the 2008 Act, the NEC official said, "The candidate shall not withdraw her/his nomination after the period specified in section (1) and his name shall be included on the ballot paper and any vote cast for him/her on polling day shall be deemed valid".

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34652

And the US to wonder if some delay could be a solution. With Bashir insulting everyone at the end:
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34662

Despite the crazy talk from Bashir and the US and SPLM playing at should I go or should I stay… NEC is doing what looks to me as what JMM describes as lawfare. Well, at least to a fuzzy move to actually force SPLM to stay in the course and make those election credible.
I just do not see the benefit. Let's dream and imagine that SPLM candidate in North is elected while boycotting the elections. I do not see Bashir and SAF nicely and fairly saying: we lost, please take the keys of the office.
But by saying SPLM cannot redraw now, Bashir is buying credibility, at least legally. Rule of law, rule of law...

And here is what Moscow thinks about the situation: (Sorry the link is in french)
http://fr.rian.ru/world/20100405/186393760.html

Basically Moscow is saying let’s go for elections. For them, the elections have to happen because of Darfur peace process.
It’s a dam fair and bright comment. The only out come of those elections, part from an increase of tensions between North and South ARE the Doha agreement.

[M-A Lagrange]

After the post punk clash rumba between SPLM and NCP, US special envoy has managed to convince SPLM to stay!

Gration welcomes SPLM participation in Northern Sudan elections

Gration, who seemed to express satisfaction with the SPLM’s strategic political priorities, said his office was ready to assist in the contentious issues between the two peace-partners [NCP and SPLM] so that referendum on independence of Southern Sudan would be conducted as scheduled for January 2011.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34701

But does that mean the peace process for soft separation is still going on?

The thing being: by all means, as Mr Gation said so clearly, SPLM and NCP have to stay in power up to the referendum because they signed the peace agreement! After…

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudanese say frustrated by Arman withdrawal from presidential race
While northern Sudanese who supported him considered his withdrawal as clear sign of the will of SPLM leadership to "focus" on the southern part of the country preparing for separation by January 2010.
"His withdrawal was not fair and serious," said Mustafa who is a SPLM member. The young man confessed that he does not believe in the official version given by the leadership adding “many in Juba wanted him to pullout since a while."
"We have been betrayed by separatists in Juba" he said.
Aware of such reaction Riek Machar, the SPLM deputy chairman this week was keen to say that Arman "advocated for his withdrawal. We had tried to convince him for weeks not to do that, but he insisted that he wanted it done that way".
Further after the pullout of SPLM nominees in northern Sudan for legislative and states elections, Kiir and Machar reiterated that this decision was taken by the northern sector. But Yasir reiterated they implemented the party’s decision.
Kiir and Arman stressed yesterday that there was no division with the SPLM over the boycott of elections despite their contradictory statement.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34716

Votes for Arman Still Valid: Elections Body
The Deputy Chairman of the Southern Sudan High Elections Committee (SSHEC) Anthony Ariki Lowly has said that the withdrawal of the SPLM candidate for the post of the President of the Republic of the Sudan is not valid and he remains a candidate.

http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial...4/Default.aspx

[M-A Lagrange]

By embarking only on a partial boycott (withdrawing its presidential candidate and pulling out of regional elections in Darfur only), the SPLM is playing a two-level game. On one level, it hedges its Darfurian support by declaring solidarity with the position of insurgents there. A fair election is impossible amidst prevailing political roadblocks. Withdrawal of European election monitors from the region this week was a belated acknowledgement by the EU of this sad reality. At another level, SPLM's partial boycott stops short of the outright provocation that would hand Al-Bashir and his supporters an excuse to complicate the south's independence bid.
The US, like the EU, wants the elections to go ahead. But Washington's Sudan strategy is even more dependent on the NCP-SPLM accommodation. America has invested huge political capital in the North-South agreement, and sees the conduct of this month's elections as central to actualising the CPA. The US tolerates a narrow elite accommodation in the hope that it gives South Sudan a final say on its own future and helps transform the drawn-out North-South conflict. It is a seductive but deeply flawed strategy in view of numerous unresolved questions, many of them vital to a successful southern referendum: internal border demarcation and oil revenue allocations, tensions over Abyei, South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, and continuing borderland conflicts fuelled by Al-Bashir's ethnic militarisation strategies.

A policy based solely on support for elitist deals carries significant risks. First, it will leave many key Sudanese players on the sidelines – including powerful northern oppositions like the Umma party of former Prime Minister Sadiq Al-Mahdi, which has opted to boycott. Second, elite accommodation on the elections confers Al-Bashir with a veneer of legitimacy, however tenuous, and could be ultimately self-defeating for Western and African efforts to broker a solution in Darfur. A one-sided election this year and possible southern secession next year, invariably strengthens the NCP's control over Sudan's north, making negotiated settlements difficult in Darfur and other restive peripheries.

Encouraging a more inclusive political dialogue will not be easy, but significant EU aid largesse should provide some leverage. If there is no change from the elitist approach, Sudan's still existent opportunity to transform itself would be permanently lost. In that case, it will be at a cost to Sudan's peoples and many far beyond the epicentres of its instabilities."

http://www.euractiv.com/fr/affaires-...phe-au-soudan-

He just said it much better than me and resumes most of the key points why stabilization/post conflict recovery missions fail.

[M-A Lagrange]

The not so fine tuned policy to keep NCP and SPLM in power may not work. At least for the people.

Sudan’s NCP accuses opposition of seeking to topple post-election government.

"[The opposition groups] are not going to recognize the outcome of the elections and they are going to go to the streets and try to change the regime ... through conflict, riots," Sudan presidential assistant Nafie Ali Nafie told reporters at a briefing.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34783

[M-A Lagrange]

JMA, Ken, it's a Sudan threat here! And oriented on stabilization and State building! , Go to the Zimbabwe one to discuss Bob eradication
I may support the missile option by the way.

By the way, here are some preliminary results from elections:

27 MPs declared winners by default in Sudan elections

In the national parliament, the NEC said five MPs have been elected by acclamations, four among them in southern Sudan, are members of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) while one from the National Congress Party (NCP) elected in eastern Sudan.
The four SPLM winners for the National Assembly are – the following is phonetic transcription from Arabic language – 1- Angelo James Splitro, Central Equatoria, Juba West, 2- Atem Garang Deng, Jonglei, Bor, 3- Johnson Jonbiko Kwlang, Lakes State, Yirol West and 4- Waal Deng, Warrap, Gogrial West. The fifth MP chosen by acclamation is Mahmoud Ali Beatai, Kassala, Hemshkourib, the National Congress Party.
The electoral board also announced that four MPs are elected by default for the Southern Sudan legislative Assembly. All of them are members of the SPLM. 1- Ngor Marc Lotidi, Eastern Equatoria, Kapoeta North, 2- Marc Lochabi, Eastern Equatoria, South Kapoeta, 3- Lino Makina, western Equatoria 4- David Deng Athorbi, Lakes state, Yirol west.

On Wednesday, the NEC decided to re-run elections in 33 national and regional constituencies, 15 for the national parliament and 18 in different states largely in northern Sudan.
The electoral body admitted printing errors. Ballots in the concerned constituencies were missing candidate’s symbols in other cases the logos were swapped. The elections in these areas are expected to be held within 60 days as provided in the electoral law.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34785

Sudan’s Turabi threatens tougher stance over ’fraudulent’ elections

"Everything is totally corrupt. We are fed up and we will never recognize these elections," the DUP’s Salah al-Basha told Reuters yesterday.

Prior to the vote, Al-Basha said the party was sure to win the governorships of at least six states. Friday he said it looked to have won none.

Hatim al-Sir, the DUP candidate who ran against Bashir in the presidential race, said he would not recognize the results.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34800

An unexpected result? North just implose while South become a military regime... War may come sooner than expected and may be not from where everybody thought.

[davidbfpo]

Moderators Note

In response to MA's critique that some disturbance in this thread by a series of posts speculating on the role of the external, or great powers in Africa, in places like Zimbabwe and what exactly will China do? I have created a new thread for the discussion and moved some of the posts to here and please discuss the issues there, not in this Sudanese thread.

The new thread is 'The role of non-African powers in Africa: a discussion':http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=10188

[M-A Lagrange]

Some reactions from various countries in the world.
And sorry, still nothing from China. But does China reaction on democratic opening really count? Let say yes but not that much in fact as they just target natural resources and will support any kind of regime which is commercially favorable to them, democratic or not.

African and Arabs organisations praise the conduct of Sudanese elections

"We cannot say that the Sudanese elections have met international standards, but that does not reduce what has happened, which is an important transition," said Salah Halima the head of AL mission in Khartoum today.
"What happened in Sudan was a historical event and a great achievement for Sudanese people," said Kunle Adeyemi, who is spokesperson of the AU observer mission in Sudan chaired by John Kufuor the former President of Ghana. "Looking into the fact this is a country that had not had a multi-party election for almost a generation... to say they are free and fair, to the best of our knowledge we have no reason to think the contrary," he added.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34808

Russia says Sudan elections fair by ’African standards’
The elections that were concluded in Sudan last week should be judged by African standards and not European ones, a senior Russian official said.
"In particular, voting papers were delivered late to polling stations. And polling stations themselves did not open on time. The names of some candidates on the lists were distorted or had the wrong symbols," Margelov told Interfax news agency.
"This country is just emerging from a state of war. Moreover, it seems European experts shouldn’t be applying their observations to the whole country - there is information that for security reasons they did not go to Darfur," he added.
Margelov also said that the opinion of the EU’s observers to the effect that the elections "did not meet the key requirements of the electoral process" were too categorical.
Margelov said the elections in Sudan should be judged by African and not European standards.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34819

South Africa criticizes Sudan’s rush to elections at an "inopportune" time

"It is a great concern. Sudan shares borders with 10 other African states, therefore... if it implodes... it destabilizes many other African countries. So it is in our interests to contribute towards peace and stability in Sudan" Motlanthe said.
"A number of... parties pulled out of the election. That in itself already creates circumstances for the election outcomes not to be accepted by all because they have these concerns about aspects of the preparations. The conditions are not ideal," he said. "These elections could not have happened at a more inopportune time."
"One would have asked for more time for the peace process to take root, as well as the outstanding question relating to the comprehensive peace agreement with the South to be addressed. Then the country as a whole could have gone to a better election," he said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34807

US says Sudan elections ’not fair and free’, shifts focus to 2011 referendum
"This was not a free and fair election," said State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley. "It did not, broadly speaking, meet international standards."
"That said, I think we recognize that the election is a very important step" toward carrying out a 2005 peace deal that gave the south autonomy, a share of oil revenues and a route to independence via referendum by January 2011, he told reporters.
Crowley said many of those elected in the Sudanese poll, however flawed it may have been, would play important roles in whether "we have a credible referenda process that, quite honestly, is likely to yield the emergence of a new country."

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34817


It is interresting to see our Russian friend complying with AU and Arab Union statement. Particion of Sudan is also for them an opportunity to retake ground in Africa and counter China in what used to be their play yard... Especially the "Arab" Africa.
It is interresting to see how Sudan destiny is becoming another Berlin conference of 21 century.


To please our ecowarriors friends and to look a little more on the non oil issues, as it was done before, I would like to have a look at water.
I did previously flag the issue of agriculture and will of Arab countries to turn North Sudan in a gigantic wheat plant country. This can only be done with water. And negociations around water are not that easy with non "arab" African countries of the Nil sub region.

Egypt and Sudan approach Nile basin countries on need for cooperation
Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and his Sudanese counterpart, Omar al-Bashir have sent messages to their counterparts in the Nile Basin countries to invite them to set up a commission for the development of relations between them and financing of joint projects, Egyptian media said here Thursday.

http://www.apanews.net/public/spip.php?article122374

That was on 16/04

Well, since the results of the negociations were not that good in fact.
Egypt, refering to the 1929 water sharing treaty signed with UK, claim to own Nil water. A 1959 treaty allows to Egypt nearly 87% of the nile water.
Egypt minister of Water even leveled the issue of Nil negociation to national security.
(sorry, the link is in French, I could not find one in English but it does exist, I think on Al Jazeera.)
http://www.leblogfinance.com/2010/04...nationale.html

Eco wars, as ecologicaly (ecology as politic agenda) protracted, may be the new African issue in the coming years. As I was describing in previous post, Sudan secession is not only a oil/ethnical question. It is also a regional ecological resources management question.
This aspect of the crises (in Sudan) is fairly new (please, no climat refugees comment. For those who may see something in this, please go back to your history books and you'll discover that Darfur issue is more than 20 years old.). Or at least not taken in account in the CPA and the signatories parties. But the world food crises passed by and Countries as Uganda or Kenya do neet to secure food production areas such as South Sudan green belt.
So do Egypt and the Arab countries from Arab peninsula.
Sudan secession is no more just a story of oil and religious rights...

[Jedburgh]

CIGI, 20 Apr 10: Security Sector Reform Monitor: Southern Sudan

This edition of the Security Sector Reform Monitor: Southern Sudan will explore disarmament and security issues in Southern Sudan with an emphasis on the community level, examining how internal and external dynamics contribute to human insecurity. Civilian disarmament is an intractable problem that was not addressed explicitly in the CPA. The problems posed by small arms in Southern Sudan are enormous and current measures to contain their impact are inadequate and, in fact, undermine the credibility of the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS).

[JMA]

A quote: "The elections that were concluded in Sudan last week should be judged by African standards and not European ones, a senior Russian official said."...

That statement would be considered outrageously racist where I come from. Yet the Russians think they can get away with it?

[M-A Lagrange]

JMA,

I fully agree on the fact that it is racist. I am also ashamed that such statements are cautioned by African countries. The will to be seen different is a good reason to lower the standards. And this is one of the many problems in stabilization.
As long as standards will be seen as a foreign thing and process will be done to comply with foreigners view/interrest/funding opportunities, this cannot work. The ownership of a stabilization process starts will the recognition of egal needs/rights for any African populations (or any non "western like" culture).

In that sense the Sudan elections are interresting. Both North or South have agreed to have low standards. But they also agreed on the same level of low standards. And the worst, in Russia position, is that most of African countries will find this statement relevant and clever because it goes with their will to portrait them selves as different.
This is probably the main issue here: ownership of a non natural process at its highest level. How build ownership of a process which is seen as an artificial tool and obstacle to reach war end (secession in the case of South Sudan).

[M-A Lagrange]

If, as likely, South Sudan decides to secede from the North at its January 2011 self-determination referendum, it will need support from Sudan’s neighbours to ensure the decision is respected and new conflict is prevented.

http://www.presseafricaine.info/ext/...isisgroup.org/

The ICG on last elections: A MUST READ!!!!

[M-A Lagrange]

A lot of events happened in a short time (1 month more or less). I was taking some rest from Sudan but followed this closely and waited it to mature to really try to put some comments on the situation.

First of all the situation in North Sudan: Bashir is building up the results of the election and his preparatory work for post referendum war in 2011.

Sudanese security arrests opposition Hassan Turabi
May 15, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – Sudanese security service arrested Saturday the leader of the opposition Popular Congress Party (PCP) Hassan Al-Turabi.
"At around midnight (2100 GMT), a group of security officers arriving in three cars, came and took Hassan al-Turabi from his home," his secretary Awad Babakir told AFP.
His family said ignoring the cause of the arrest but his son Sidiq sait it might be related to an interview with a Sudanese daily newspaper where he accused the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of rigging the elections.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35091

Sudanese army captures Jebel Moon kills over hundred JEM rebels
May 15, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — Sudanese army has killed over one hundred insurgents and captured a key rebel stronghold area in West Darfur in less than two weeks after the suspension of peace talks by the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), the army spokesperson said.
"We liberated Jebel Moon from the Justice and Equality Movement, killed 108 rebels and captured 61 alive," said Alsoarmi Khaled, the spokesperson of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).
He also said they seized a number of trucks, vehicles and heavy weapons, adding that SAF troops will hunt down remnant rebels who are pulling out of Jebel Moon area.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35086

Secondly, the unsolved problem of Nile water. As Egypt and Sudan, for obvious food security reasons but also to allow Arab Union States to turn this part of the world in their wheat plant, refused any discussions on Nile water, some other stake holders took the initiative to revise the Nile water partition without them:

Some Nile Basin States Sign Deal, Egypt Objects
Four east African countries signed a new deal creating a permanent commission to manage the River Nile's waters on Friday, putting them on a collision course with Egypt and Sudan.

http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial...2/Default.aspx

And finally the full messy post election situation of Jongley and Gen Athor refusal to respect population decision.

Renegade general warns civilians to evacuate Bor town before attackSunday 16 May 2010 Send
May 15, 2010 (JUBA) – The renegade general, George Athor Deng, has warned civilians living in Bor town to leave the town before he attacks it in the next few days.
Athor issued the warning through another interview he conducted with the Nairobi-based Sudan Radio Service (SRS). “I believe that within days, my attack will be against Bor town because I have learned that Salva is somebody who only likes fighting and he doesn’t want to talk. So it is for him to listen to what we are saying, I am organizing my forces for Bor town,” he said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35092

And a letter addressed to Gen Athor and president Kiir from Calgari:
To Gen Athor:

We would also like to urge Gen. George Athor very strongly not to repeat what had happened two weeks ago. We all knew that you were one of the military influential figures of the SPLA/M during the liberation struggle, more committed and loyal to SPLA/M system, but now we wanted you not to obliterate your wonderful legacy by killing your own citizens and fellow Comrades whom you had previously sacrificed your life to rescue them from Arab domination. They offered their precious live voluntarily during the movement for the name of our mother land, human rights and freedom to all marginalized people of Sudan.

To president Kiir:

We really appeal to GoSS and SPLM leadership to forgive General Deng since continuation of this conflict will claim more lives of our civilians and soldiers while we all want them to enjoy peace dividend. Your Excellency, we the Southern Sudanese citizens in Calgary are kindly requesting the government of southern Sudan, under your leadership to exhaust all necessary mechanisms with consideration of the following resolutions:

First and foremost, prolonging this internal conflict, would caused insecurity and instability which will hinder the preparation of the imminent referendum in 2011 whereby people of South Sudan would determine their future either to retain unity of Sudan or opt for South Sudan separate government as one of the cornerstones of liberation struggle.

Secondly, turning guns against citizens is completely irrelevant because we will lose innocent lives of our people at this juncture and it will undermine ultimate roles of the SPLA army while their main function is to defend South Sudan and to maintain the CPA.

Thirdly, our partner is very seriously advocating false allegation to international community that we people of south Sudan are incapable of running our own affairs and warns the international community to refrain from supporting secession of South Sudan. We the SPLM Calgary and other Sudanese elders want the SPLM leadership and the government of southern Sudan to prove them wrong this time and alert the people in the world that we the Southerners are more than capable of governing ourselves by maintaining lasting peace in South Sudan.

http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial...0/Default.aspx

And some details on what is going on in Jongley view through disarment angle:
Jonglei 2010: Another round of disarmament
http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial...8/Default.aspx

What is sad in the Jongley story is that general Athor has won the elections in only 1 couny on 11. It gives you an idea of his support.
But unlike SPLA says, some say he may have up to a thousand soldiers with him. (I know the figures battle… anyways, he probably has more than 100 and pretty much less than a 1000).

What is interresting in this story, is that Athor was proposed position in Juba, in the new government and he refused. The assumption that peace has a price (so precious to UK) here is proven to be fault again. War has a price which is even more attractive than any one put on peace.
Why? Simply because war opens more opportunities than peace to a larger number. Now the main question is who benefits from the crime?
GoSS? Certainly not.
Khartoum? Most probably but it is not that obvious. My point here is: Khartoum is actually bringing on his knees JEM in Dafur and will be soon free to prepare war with South (if this happens after 2011 referendum). Gen Athor ran elections as an independent. He basically lost all his supports inside SPLM. He was more or less proposed to reintegrate SPLM through a position in the government and refused.

This could be a manoeuvre to destabilise GoSS but internal affairs inside SPLM could be the problem. And let us not forget the complex problem of Nile water. A strong south Sudan is a problem for Egypt and North Sudan on that matter but also it is an issue for the other stake holders of that negotiation. Nice guys as Uganda president are involved in this. It would not be the first time hat he plays against South Sudan.
Too many have motives to destabilise South to look only to North.

[M-A Lagrange]

Kiir casts doubts on negotiations with renegade general
May 16, 2010 (JUBA) – Salva Kiir Mayardit, South Sudan President-elect, has casted doubt on GOSS willingness to negotiate with George Athor Deng, the defeated Jonglei State gubernatorial candidate in April elections.
Many voices in southern Sudan called on the regional government to seek peaceful means to end the rebellion of General Athor in order to preserve peace and security in the semi-autonomous region which will hold a referendum on self determination next January.
The UN Mission in Sudan proposed to broker a negotiated settlement to the conflict. Athor welcomed the move but Southern Sudan government pledged to make further consultations and review the situation before to give its final decision to the UN body.
During the May 16th celebration here in Juba, Salva Kiir vowed that civilians’ safety and transformation of SPLA are the SPLM focus in the next term office besides ensuring successful conduct of January referendum.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35103

South Sudan ruling party accuses NCP of backing Athor uprising At a media briefing held at the party’s Southern Sector Secretariat on Saturday, Mr. Amum said his party had secured credible information that the National Congress Party (NCP) was fully backing Gen. Athor and forces loyal to him.
Asked to substantiate further on the NCP’s alleged involvement, the SPLM Secretary General said the party’s [SPLM] intelligence report strongly link the renegade General’s rebellion to the Khartoum regime’s continuous trends of providing logistical and financial support to “enemies” of Southern Sudan.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35098

As far as I know, negociations were rejected by Salva Kiir and SPLA troops are surounding the 500 to 800 troops of Gen Athor.
This situation questions the doctrine of negociation with peace spoilers in stabilisation. Is it always worse to negociate with peace spoilers? Sometimes the answer is no, unfortunatelly.
Somehow, negociating with a general who clearly lost election would undermine GoSS legitimacy and democratic process initiated in South Sudan. Not that I am in favor of use of force to settle any problems similar to this one but...
But when the democratic defeat is clear, then negociations has to be very limited. Buying peace spoilers would work if they have some popular back up as you would fuel insurgency. But when the guys have no popular support why should democraties negociate?
Democratic process are inclusive but in order to build strong democracy, it should be also archknowledge that they do have the right to impose people decisions to those who reject people choice by using force.

Concerning the NCP links... I am doubtful by I am very much not well placed to judge as I miss too many info.

[M-A Lagrange]

U.S. kicks off agricultural program in South Sudan
May 17, 2010 (JUBA) – The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) inaugurated a $55 million program in the semi-autonomous region of South Sudan aimed at helping farmers there to develop their agricultural potential.
Last month, the World Food Program (WFP) warned that South Sudan is facing a major food crisis that could lead to a “free fall” impacting 4.3 million people living off assistance.
Furthermore, the Government of South Sudan (GoSS) has announced last Friday the lifting of taxes on food products in response to the looming hunger in the region.
USAID said that a five-year initiative, called the Food, Agribusiness, and Rural Markets (FARM) program, will initially focus on select counties in southern Sudan’s ‘green belt zone,’ which spans Western, Central, and Eastern Equatoria states, and where conflict destroyed much of the local capacity for agricultural production during Sudan’s civil war.
The project is to focus on commodities such as ground nuts, sorghum, rice, cassava, maize, sesame, tomatoes, cabbage, onion and okra. The areas covered in this program are comprised of Central Equatoria Counties: Morobo, Kajo Keji, Yei; Eastern Equatoria Counties: Magwi, Ikotos, Budi; Western Equatoria Counties: Maridi, Mundri, Tambura.
USAID director said that his agency will increase its presence in South Sudan in what appears to be a subtle preparation for the high probability of secession following the 2011 self-determination referendum in the region.
“Agriculture is the backbone of the economic development in southern Sudan, employing the majority of the population of more than 8 million, 80 percent of whom live in rural areas,” according to a USAID statement.
South Sudan is overwhelmingly dependent on oil revenue but some reports accused GoSS of mismanaging the money leading to persistence of food crisis and insecurity.
A GoSS official vowed to spend prudently in order to develop agriculture.
“There is going to be rationalization in all aspects of expenditure to create funds for the development of our agriculture,” the SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35110

Poor roads infrastructure in E. Equatoria hamper development
Mr. Otim said Magwi could be the food basket of Eastern Equatoria, Southern Sudan and Sudan at large but it lacks roads linking the area to towns like the state capital Torit or to the Southern Sudan capital Juba to help the farmers transport their products to market their agricultural inputs.
The MP added that better roads would bridge the gap between farmers and consumers and open up means to rapidly boost the development of the state.
Otim calls upon the state government to do more to help the county inhabitants to let them exploit its God given resources as a means to fight poverty in the state.
Eastern Equatoria is under hunger threats since last year and Magwi County produces enough food to feed the state, but farmers lack good to transport their produce to the market due to the deplorable condition of the roads’ network in the region since the signing of the comprehensive peace agreement or CPA in the country.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35133

Let’s have a look on the Usefull country development orientation in stabilization…
Yes, South Sudan is not as hot as other theather and it might not look obvious for those who do not know it enough to understand why I am trying to analyse this approach though South Sudan. But anyways, such policy approach are not meant to be a one shot but a global approach for donor agencies as USAID.

What to say on the usefull country part development approach put in place by USA?
1) It looks both rational and logical: focussing on areas which have an economical potential to build population confidence in a government.
2) The limits are not in that particular approach but lay in the partners. And that’s why I joined the second article.
For those who noticed, in Eastern Equatoria, the USAID farming projects targets 3 counties: Budi, Ikotos and Magwi. It also targets some counties in Central Equatoria and Western Equatoria. So why am I harrasing the poor Magwi deputy?
Because since 2005, Magwi county is being overflowded with aid. And because it is the door to Uganda who is also facing a strong food gape, especially in its northen regions. So, developing roads in Magwi will not allow GoSS to have a more rational management of its food security but will allow South Sudan to export food to Uganda.
Then comes the first question to whom is that farming project benefiting? Is it benefitting to South Sudan or is it benefitting to its close neighbour who is actually engaged in tracking LRA all over Central and Western Equatoria (up to Darfur in fact)?
As a strabilization strategy how does that work? I really do wonder. And this is my point: how do donors pick up and choose areas to qualify them as useful versus non useful?
Developping roads to allow farmers to sell their products inside South Sudan is likely to not work. This because South sudanese simply do not have the financial capacity to purchase that food. So you will tend to develop export to develop transport companies and respond to a need (Uganda food gape) in a solvable area (Uganda).
Yes but does that contribute to stabilise South Sudan? The question is far from being rethorical as the roots of many of the ethnical/tribal conflicts lay in food insecurity. So would that not be whiser to develop internal road transport capacity from producers area to food insecure areas inside the country whith UN agencies such as WFP purchasing the production to then redistribute it in unstable areas.
But in fact this is not what leads donors or agencies choice. In fact, the choice is led by partners practices. Yes, indeed, NGO and contractors do play a huge role in this. That, just because to implement a project, you do need to identify capable partners. And such partners are driven by a purely economical rational: benefit/cost(effort). It is much easier to find partners to implement a project in a easy access area rather in a logistically unaccessible area whith some level of insecurity.
Then once again, it is not the concerned country which is choosing what are its useful part but an external body, most of the time not even concerned by the political end of such projects.
Finally you end up with a great development project that is absolutely not useful in terms of stabilization and which is implemented in the already more or less stable areas. The ink spot effect is largely concurenced by the negative effect of non distribution of peace benefits in the unstable areas. To be successful, such approach has to be capable to generate a development ratio which is extremely high to be able to overpass the “instability ratio” of the non targetted areas.
I’am not saying it is worse trying. I am just saying that, except in areas where you have to be dum to be willing to stay viewing the death potential for you and your staff, such approach has an obligation to blow the roof to be successful and effectively participate to stabilize a country rather than marginalising areas. In the case of South sudan, the cradle of all insurgencies has been Jongley. It is actually the state were political unity of SPLM is cracking. So how is that this state is not integrated into the huge farming USAID project? (Taking out the technical problematic of crop production versus cattle breeding. Technical solution can be found to technical problematic).
Well here are some ints of an answer for South Sudan: Jongley state is not a bankable state as it has no links with export areas capable to purchase this food production. We are back here to the first question: to whom is such approach really benefiting? To the unstable country we are trying to stabilize or to its neighbors?

Talking about jonglei:

Jonglei governor dismisses allegations of probable attack on Bor
Jonglei Gov. Kuol Manyang Juuk has dismissed as "spread allegations" that defeated gubernatorial candidate George Athor Deng may attack the State capital, Bor.
Mr. Manyang observed that Athor threats to attack Bor do not amount to causing panic among the town residents "because I can sit in my house and speak in my house that I will attack such a place and (media) broadcast".
The governor calls for what he calls as “the unity of our people to maintain peace and prepare for referendum on self-determination due next January. On job creation, Kuol says “unemployment is insecurity. When we make peace, we make (our state) attractive for (foreign) investors.”
Southern Sudan minister of information rapped Miraya FM for airing an interview with George Athor, a former SPLA who rebelled after losing in gubernatorial elections in Jonglei last month.
During the interview, the renegade general threatened to attack Jonglei capital Jonglei.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35136

Ironic, isn’t it?

[M-A Lagrange]

South Sudan army ceases cordoning ex-SPLA General turned rebel
May 22, 2010 (TURALEI) — Officers from the southern ruling army, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) have said they have stopped deploying their forces to barricade former SPLA deputy chief of General staff, Lieutenant General George Athor, from moving out of his base.
Our forces previously deployed around areas suspected of hosting General Athor have received military instructions from the SPLA general headquarters never to conduct offensive reconnaissance, said an army officer who requested to remain anonymous.
"These instructions are helpful because they have reduced fear and tension in the area and situation is now relatively calm. Athor is even moving freely in the area, the senior SPLA officer said. "His movement is not being restricted. I understand he was on Wednesday in Baliet County and there was no problem because he did not attack any military base on his way to Baliet," the military source stressed.
According to the source, the recent instructions from the SPLA General headquarters in Juba advise the army to only monitor his movements and react vigorously in self defense in case he attacks any military base. Recent orders from the headquarters instruct the army to only fight back in self defense in case he launches any offensive against any military base in the area, he said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35167

South sudan government is actually receiving advisory support from US based companies such as Dyng corp in matter of security. The monitor and vigorous self defense approach adopted by the SPLA reminds somehow the strategy develped in Afghanistan: not waste manpower is useless fighting and concentrate on usefull South Sudan (and the border with North also).
If I come with that parallele, it is in fact because of the new USAID FARM project launched severa days ago. It will be interresting if population centric COIN is an exportabe product.
Wait and see.