Results 1 to 20 of 114

Thread: How Insurgencies End

Threaded View

Previous Post Previous Post   Next Post Next Post
  1. #11
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    2,706

    Default

    This thread is a pretty good "ecosystem" for why insurgencies tend to simmer along for years....

    You have a dozen smart people all talking past each other. And while this is occuring, the insurgent out working among the populace; targeting manifestations of the squabbling COIN force (the HN government at all levels, civil and security; their puppet master external FID forces, civil and military, et. al.) wherever they are most easily and visibly affected; cajoling and coercing support from the populace as necessary; all the while working to build perceptions of their own legitimacy, to provide justice, to provide respect to the disrespected (your tribe is excluded from success under this government? Join the Taliban and be somebody!); addressing feelings of hopelessness (you don't have a vote that counts? here, take this IED, or this ICOM radio, or this AK and "vote" with it and be heard!).

    No, insurgencies don't end when the insurgent wants them to Outlaw, they end when the populace in the main feels that governance is good. The new insurgent's spark falls on wet tender, and the old flame of insurgency sputters and dies.

    Security is a critical enabler, and development is nice as well; but neither will end an insurgency; in fact, if they are applied without justice and respect by a government perceived to be illegitimate they will actually make the insurgency worse.

    Securtiy without Justice is Tyranny.

    Development without equity is Apartheid.

    Governance without Legitimacy is Despotism.

    And a populace experincing the above without a voice is Hopeless.

    THIS is what causes insurgency. Apply the facts and cultures of your many various case studies to this Devil's brew and test them for yourself.

    Legitimacy, Justice, Respect, Hope. This is what's in Bob's kitbag for COIN.

    Bring your large foreign armies only if you want to control the outcome of some foreign insurgency; but when you do that understand that THAT isn't COIN. That is a decision that the Foreign Poliy of your nation as manifested in some country is more important than the will and good governance of the populace of that same nation. Not saying don't ever do that. I'm just saying call it what it is, or you might just wind up buying into your own spin.
    Last edited by Bob's World; 04-30-2010 at 04:14 AM.
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

Similar Threads

  1. Why democracies don't lose insurgencies
    By Cavguy in forum RFIs & Members' Projects
    Replies: 79
    Last Post: 06-11-2009, 03:23 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •