Dayuhan-Steve,

Thanks for the article/case study; still working my way through it but it's well written and there is much to think about.

For the math & ecosystems crowd:

The SWJ thread Mathematics of War might be of interest.

Thermodynamics is an interesting subject which has spawned many ideas and mathematical descriptions outside of it's typical application. Following that pathway the definitions of closed and open systems are instructive to consider:

Closed System from wikipedia

In thermodynamics, a closed system can exchange heat and work (for example, energy), but not matter, with its surroundings.
...while an open system can exchange all of heat, work and matter
I find it to be of greater use to consider the concept of Control Volumes when considering the flow or ponding of water through pipes or channels or the flow or ponding of insurgents through a village or province. A control volume is just an imaginary cube in which one can slow time and reduce the number of variables moving through it in order to think about what is occuring in the space. When using this concept it is important to state assumptions concerning which variables are being examined and how they interact. Just because one assumes that only a few variables can predict how the system responds to inputs does not mean that this simplification accurately models reality.

For my money, Governance is but one variable in the open system that is conflict. I use the heuristic that all models are wrong, but some are useful.

Ecosystem models from wikipedia