South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[M-A Lagrange]

Kiir casts doubts on negotiations with renegade general
May 16, 2010 (JUBA) – Salva Kiir Mayardit, South Sudan President-elect, has casted doubt on GOSS willingness to negotiate with George Athor Deng, the defeated Jonglei State gubernatorial candidate in April elections.
Many voices in southern Sudan called on the regional government to seek peaceful means to end the rebellion of General Athor in order to preserve peace and security in the semi-autonomous region which will hold a referendum on self determination next January.
The UN Mission in Sudan proposed to broker a negotiated settlement to the conflict. Athor welcomed the move but Southern Sudan government pledged to make further consultations and review the situation before to give its final decision to the UN body.
During the May 16th celebration here in Juba, Salva Kiir vowed that civilians’ safety and transformation of SPLA are the SPLM focus in the next term office besides ensuring successful conduct of January referendum.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35103

South Sudan ruling party accuses NCP of backing Athor uprising At a media briefing held at the party’s Southern Sector Secretariat on Saturday, Mr. Amum said his party had secured credible information that the National Congress Party (NCP) was fully backing Gen. Athor and forces loyal to him.
Asked to substantiate further on the NCP’s alleged involvement, the SPLM Secretary General said the party’s [SPLM] intelligence report strongly link the renegade General’s rebellion to the Khartoum regime’s continuous trends of providing logistical and financial support to “enemies” of Southern Sudan.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35098

As far as I know, negociations were rejected by Salva Kiir and SPLA troops are surounding the 500 to 800 troops of Gen Athor.
This situation questions the doctrine of negociation with peace spoilers in stabilisation. Is it always worse to negociate with peace spoilers? Sometimes the answer is no, unfortunatelly.
Somehow, negociating with a general who clearly lost election would undermine GoSS legitimacy and democratic process initiated in South Sudan. Not that I am in favor of use of force to settle any problems similar to this one but...
But when the democratic defeat is clear, then negociations has to be very limited. Buying peace spoilers would work if they have some popular back up as you would fuel insurgency. But when the guys have no popular support why should democraties negociate?
Democratic process are inclusive but in order to build strong democracy, it should be also archknowledge that they do have the right to impose people decisions to those who reject people choice by using force.

Concerning the NCP links... I am doubtful by I am very much not well placed to judge as I miss too many info.

[M-A Lagrange]

U.S. kicks off agricultural program in South Sudan
May 17, 2010 (JUBA) – The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) inaugurated a $55 million program in the semi-autonomous region of South Sudan aimed at helping farmers there to develop their agricultural potential.
Last month, the World Food Program (WFP) warned that South Sudan is facing a major food crisis that could lead to a “free fall” impacting 4.3 million people living off assistance.
Furthermore, the Government of South Sudan (GoSS) has announced last Friday the lifting of taxes on food products in response to the looming hunger in the region.
USAID said that a five-year initiative, called the Food, Agribusiness, and Rural Markets (FARM) program, will initially focus on select counties in southern Sudan’s ‘green belt zone,’ which spans Western, Central, and Eastern Equatoria states, and where conflict destroyed much of the local capacity for agricultural production during Sudan’s civil war.
The project is to focus on commodities such as ground nuts, sorghum, rice, cassava, maize, sesame, tomatoes, cabbage, onion and okra. The areas covered in this program are comprised of Central Equatoria Counties: Morobo, Kajo Keji, Yei; Eastern Equatoria Counties: Magwi, Ikotos, Budi; Western Equatoria Counties: Maridi, Mundri, Tambura.
USAID director said that his agency will increase its presence in South Sudan in what appears to be a subtle preparation for the high probability of secession following the 2011 self-determination referendum in the region.
“Agriculture is the backbone of the economic development in southern Sudan, employing the majority of the population of more than 8 million, 80 percent of whom live in rural areas,” according to a USAID statement.
South Sudan is overwhelmingly dependent on oil revenue but some reports accused GoSS of mismanaging the money leading to persistence of food crisis and insecurity.
A GoSS official vowed to spend prudently in order to develop agriculture.
“There is going to be rationalization in all aspects of expenditure to create funds for the development of our agriculture,” the SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35110

Poor roads infrastructure in E. Equatoria hamper development
Mr. Otim said Magwi could be the food basket of Eastern Equatoria, Southern Sudan and Sudan at large but it lacks roads linking the area to towns like the state capital Torit or to the Southern Sudan capital Juba to help the farmers transport their products to market their agricultural inputs.
The MP added that better roads would bridge the gap between farmers and consumers and open up means to rapidly boost the development of the state.
Otim calls upon the state government to do more to help the county inhabitants to let them exploit its God given resources as a means to fight poverty in the state.
Eastern Equatoria is under hunger threats since last year and Magwi County produces enough food to feed the state, but farmers lack good to transport their produce to the market due to the deplorable condition of the roads’ network in the region since the signing of the comprehensive peace agreement or CPA in the country.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35133

Let’s have a look on the Usefull country development orientation in stabilization…
Yes, South Sudan is not as hot as other theather and it might not look obvious for those who do not know it enough to understand why I am trying to analyse this approach though South Sudan. But anyways, such policy approach are not meant to be a one shot but a global approach for donor agencies as USAID.

What to say on the usefull country part development approach put in place by USA?
1) It looks both rational and logical: focussing on areas which have an economical potential to build population confidence in a government.
2) The limits are not in that particular approach but lay in the partners. And that’s why I joined the second article.
For those who noticed, in Eastern Equatoria, the USAID farming projects targets 3 counties: Budi, Ikotos and Magwi. It also targets some counties in Central Equatoria and Western Equatoria. So why am I harrasing the poor Magwi deputy?
Because since 2005, Magwi county is being overflowded with aid. And because it is the door to Uganda who is also facing a strong food gape, especially in its northen regions. So, developing roads in Magwi will not allow GoSS to have a more rational management of its food security but will allow South Sudan to export food to Uganda.
Then comes the first question to whom is that farming project benefiting? Is it benefitting to South Sudan or is it benefitting to its close neighbour who is actually engaged in tracking LRA all over Central and Western Equatoria (up to Darfur in fact)?
As a strabilization strategy how does that work? I really do wonder. And this is my point: how do donors pick up and choose areas to qualify them as useful versus non useful?
Developping roads to allow farmers to sell their products inside South Sudan is likely to not work. This because South sudanese simply do not have the financial capacity to purchase that food. So you will tend to develop export to develop transport companies and respond to a need (Uganda food gape) in a solvable area (Uganda).
Yes but does that contribute to stabilise South Sudan? The question is far from being rethorical as the roots of many of the ethnical/tribal conflicts lay in food insecurity. So would that not be whiser to develop internal road transport capacity from producers area to food insecure areas inside the country whith UN agencies such as WFP purchasing the production to then redistribute it in unstable areas.
But in fact this is not what leads donors or agencies choice. In fact, the choice is led by partners practices. Yes, indeed, NGO and contractors do play a huge role in this. That, just because to implement a project, you do need to identify capable partners. And such partners are driven by a purely economical rational: benefit/cost(effort). It is much easier to find partners to implement a project in a easy access area rather in a logistically unaccessible area whith some level of insecurity.
Then once again, it is not the concerned country which is choosing what are its useful part but an external body, most of the time not even concerned by the political end of such projects.
Finally you end up with a great development project that is absolutely not useful in terms of stabilization and which is implemented in the already more or less stable areas. The ink spot effect is largely concurenced by the negative effect of non distribution of peace benefits in the unstable areas. To be successful, such approach has to be capable to generate a development ratio which is extremely high to be able to overpass the “instability ratio” of the non targetted areas.
I’am not saying it is worse trying. I am just saying that, except in areas where you have to be dum to be willing to stay viewing the death potential for you and your staff, such approach has an obligation to blow the roof to be successful and effectively participate to stabilize a country rather than marginalising areas. In the case of South sudan, the cradle of all insurgencies has been Jongley. It is actually the state were political unity of SPLM is cracking. So how is that this state is not integrated into the huge farming USAID project? (Taking out the technical problematic of crop production versus cattle breeding. Technical solution can be found to technical problematic).
Well here are some ints of an answer for South Sudan: Jongley state is not a bankable state as it has no links with export areas capable to purchase this food production. We are back here to the first question: to whom is such approach really benefiting? To the unstable country we are trying to stabilize or to its neighbors?

Talking about jonglei:

Jonglei governor dismisses allegations of probable attack on Bor
Jonglei Gov. Kuol Manyang Juuk has dismissed as "spread allegations" that defeated gubernatorial candidate George Athor Deng may attack the State capital, Bor.
Mr. Manyang observed that Athor threats to attack Bor do not amount to causing panic among the town residents "because I can sit in my house and speak in my house that I will attack such a place and (media) broadcast".
The governor calls for what he calls as “the unity of our people to maintain peace and prepare for referendum on self-determination due next January. On job creation, Kuol says “unemployment is insecurity. When we make peace, we make (our state) attractive for (foreign) investors.”
Southern Sudan minister of information rapped Miraya FM for airing an interview with George Athor, a former SPLA who rebelled after losing in gubernatorial elections in Jonglei last month.
During the interview, the renegade general threatened to attack Jonglei capital Jonglei.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35136

Ironic, isn’t it?

[M-A Lagrange]

South Sudan army ceases cordoning ex-SPLA General turned rebel
May 22, 2010 (TURALEI) — Officers from the southern ruling army, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) have said they have stopped deploying their forces to barricade former SPLA deputy chief of General staff, Lieutenant General George Athor, from moving out of his base.
Our forces previously deployed around areas suspected of hosting General Athor have received military instructions from the SPLA general headquarters never to conduct offensive reconnaissance, said an army officer who requested to remain anonymous.
"These instructions are helpful because they have reduced fear and tension in the area and situation is now relatively calm. Athor is even moving freely in the area, the senior SPLA officer said. "His movement is not being restricted. I understand he was on Wednesday in Baliet County and there was no problem because he did not attack any military base on his way to Baliet," the military source stressed.
According to the source, the recent instructions from the SPLA General headquarters in Juba advise the army to only monitor his movements and react vigorously in self defense in case he attacks any military base. Recent orders from the headquarters instruct the army to only fight back in self defense in case he launches any offensive against any military base in the area, he said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35167

South sudan government is actually receiving advisory support from US based companies such as Dyng corp in matter of security. The monitor and vigorous self defense approach adopted by the SPLA reminds somehow the strategy develped in Afghanistan: not waste manpower is useless fighting and concentrate on usefull South Sudan (and the border with North also).
If I come with that parallele, it is in fact because of the new USAID FARM project launched severa days ago. It will be interresting if population centric COIN is an exportabe product.
Wait and see.

[M-A Lagrange]

Three people killed in an attack in Pibor
May 27, 2010 (BOR) – Three people are dead and at least five are injured following a last week attack in Lokurnyang in Jonglei’s Pibor County, security sources said.
Speaking to Sudan Tribune from Bor, the capital of Jonglei, on Tuesday, a security official confirmed that armed men loyal to David Yauyay, the defeated legislative candidate of the United Democratic Front (UDF) carried out the attack on May 23.
The security official discussed intelligence reports on the condition of anonymity.
Other sources have stated that several other assaults blamed on followers of Mr. Yauyau have resulted in unconfirmed casualties and tensions remain high.
James Buret, a UDF member who contested and lost in the national elections in April, told the Sudan Tribune by phone from Pibor that Mr. Yauyau reactions to the electoral are unilateral.
"After the election results, everyone left for their area and whatever happens after that is not UDF’s decision," Mr. James said about Yauyau’s military complaints on alleged electoral fraud.
A source in Pibor says the number of youth supporting Yauyau is estimated at 10 but other reports put the marauding groups higher.
After attacking Lokurnyang, the group headed towards Gadiang , located between Twic East, Duk, Uror and Pibor Counties, another source claims. It appears that Mr. Yauyau is seeking to merge his men with General George Athor Deng of the SPLA who is also accused of confronting the regional army in the last few weeks.
Mr. Athor, a former deputy chief of staff in the Southern Sudan army, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), was a main rival to Jonglei’s governer, Kuol Manyang , in April’s polls but lost with a wide margin to the incumbent leader from the SPLM that rules the semi-autonomous region. Athor is on the run after being accused of attacking an army base in Dolieb Hills, Upper Nile State on April 30.
Tension is mounting in Jonglei State following the elections as defeated politicians resort to military means to address their post-election frustrations.
Equally important, the Bor – Juba road has registered increasing raids. Two people were killed last Saturday when gunmen fired at a passenger’s car. The May 22 ambush between Mongala and Geimeza comes a week after similar attack left four people dead. As a result, land transport is loose and a number of business trucks are stranded in Juba.
Jonglei State was marred with inter-tribal cattle rustling in 2009 as well as attacks on Bor—Juba road that later fueled clashes between Mundari-Bor pastoralists leaving hundreds dead in both cases. The Government of Southern Sudan vowed at the time to halt similar future incidents.
With seven months left until the referendum on self-determination in the underdeveloped south Sudan, the journey to January 2011, at the moment, is shaky.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35216


The question here is: does nonkinetic approach fuel insurgencies?
A very actual debate in deed. Especially as it seems that Mr Yauyau has more than 10 armed supporters and is linking with General Athor.
If a national force has the capacity to crush an emerging insurgency why should they not do it? We do come back to the importance of populace as clausewitzian center. The only reason for a national force to not crush an emerging insurgency being the risk of loosing populace support and for the government its legitimacy.
The real question behind being: can a COIN afford electoral fraud?
Personnally, the answer would be no. Not because it is against my principles (it is) but because it does have much larger counter productive effects than having to deal with authorities actually representative and representing population. Also, it is against Thompson principles... But I leave this for the scholars.

[M-A Lagrange]

SPLA clashes with a renegade Colonel in Unity state
May 29, 2010 (JUBA) – A renegade Colonel in the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) has clashed with the Southern Sudan army in a county called Abiem-Nhom in Unity state.
Colonel Gatluak Gai of SPLA, who was then transferred to Prisons Brigade, is reported to have been angered by the alleged elections rigging by the incumbent governor, Taban Deng Gai, in Unity state.
His declaration of violence on Friday is the second most serious incident following that of former army Deputy Chief of Staff, General George Athor Deng of Pigi county and David Yauyau of Pibor, both from Jonglei state. All the discontented voiced their rebellion on the “rigging” of the elections, though some officials in both the government and the SPLA had associated them directly with Khartoum or blame the whole issue on Khartoum.
The SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum Okiech had earlier said that there were evidences showing that Gen. George Athor had direct link with the Khartoum government.
Although the SPLA spokesman, Major General Kuol Deim Kuol, was not heard commenting about linking Athor’s rebellion to Khartoum, Kuol has however told Miraya FM radio that the recent attack by Colonel Gatluak Gai was carried out by a group of militias sent from Khartoum.
However, another SPLA military source close to Unity state who asked to remain anonymous however explained that Colonel Gatluak is a well known SPLA officer and had been an SPLA officer like Gen. George Athor and was not sent from Khartoum as alleged.
He said Gatluak’s movement with some of his loyalists within Unity state has been monitored by the SPLA for the last three weeks. On casualties, the source added there could be higher figure than officially reported.
"The attackers did not defeat our SPLA forces but only one soldier got injured at his head after heavy gunfire exchange between our army and militias," Kuol said.
Kuol accuse the National Congress Party (NCP) of having stood behind to send militias to disturb in Unity state.
The SPLA spokesman affirmed that “at 4:45, our SPLA base at Warpiny of Abiemnhom county was attack by the forces of militias under Colonel militias Gatluak Gai, the aim is to indentify our heavy weapon position – this militias colonel with his forces was sent by Khartoum government with aim to disturb security in Unity state – one soldier at our side was wounded in his head and we don’t have more detail from our attackers side,” continued the SPLA spokesman.
Kuol noted that "We did not capture one of them in our yesterday clashes, but the motive of aggressive militias’ daily attack in Unity state is to promote political objective of the NCP in Southern Sudan - they are supporting NCP agenda and we the SPLA will just sustain our position to protect our civilians in all territory of South Sudan."
Government of Southern Sudan is currently faced with a number of rebellions following the declaration of elections results. Earlier, the former senior advisor to President Salva Kiir Mayardit, Lual Ding Wol, was reported to have expressed his discontent with the government in Juba, saying he would not accept to be part of the next government.
Lual Ding comes from Northern Bahr el Ghazal and was supporter of Gen. Dau Aturtong who went to Khartoum after losing the gubernatorial elections as another independent candidate, prompting fears that something unpleasant could be brewing in Northern Bahr el Ghazal state.
However, Kuol in his recent statement refused to make comment on General George Athor violence against SPLA forces in Jonglei state.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35237

And the fire spread all over the place.
But is the connection with NCP a reality or just something built to explain the situation and blame North?
In such situation, narrative is almost as important as reallity. Experience in other states shows that unfortunately, SPLM did not even leave room for South Sudanese alternance and opposition…

[M-A Lagrange]

First the insurgency gets organized:

Renegades coordinate attacks on South Sudan army
Three top officers who quit south Sudan’s army over alleged fraud in national elections are coordinating attacks in the oil-producing region, a renegade general said on Monday, but the army played down the threat.
“Southerners are not happy with what happened during the elections,” said George Athor, a senior general who complained of fraud after losing in the April elections and went on the run on April 30.
“I have many people who joined me, one of them is Colonel Galwak Gai and the other is David Yauyau, and we have others in other areas,” he added.
Yauyau, who told Reuters he was coordinating operations with Athor, carried out an attack in Jonglei state a week ago, forcing the United Nations to evacuate 10 staff. The south Sudan army (SPLA) said Gai attacked it in oil-rich Unity state on May 28.
“Militia commander Galwak Gai came and attacked our position,” said SPLA Spokesman Kuol Diem Kuol, adding that only one soldier was wounded but they had found two attackers’ bodies and took four prisoners.

http://www.africa-times-news.com/201...th-sudan-army/

Then SPLM is trying to cope, they cannot fight on two fronts at the same time: inside and with North

Juba forces says Sudan’s unity requires new basisMay 31, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — Juba alliance political forces agreed today that Sudan’s unity could only be maintained if the country is reshaped on new basis.
The opposition leaders and the SPLM further said the result of the referenda should be respected and implemented.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35246


The response from insurgents:

Athor says SPLM “ruling clique” can rig referendum against people’s choice
"The clique in Juba is now desperately trying to mislead public opinion that the long-awaited referendum in Southern Sudan is tied with their continuation in power. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, their very presence in power jeopardizes the credibility of the referendum itself. An illegitimate government that rigged the democratic right of the people cannot be trusted to lead the Southern Sudanese into a democratic exercise to determine their destiny," reads the statement.
"Since the SPLM ruling clique in Juba rigged the elections with impunity, they can in the same way also rig the referendum. The South cannot afford to have a Self-determination result that is in dispute. That will be a recipe for instability rather than the peaceful outcome the CPA was meant to realize," the statement continued.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35260


Basically, everybody agrees on one thing: it’s a mess in South Sudan nowadays.
To get an idea of what is the future under SPLM ruling, I recommand to read the excellent: Governance, violence and the struggle for economic regulation in South Sudan: the case of Budi County(Eastern Equatoria) from Anne Walraet (sorry, I do not have the link but it's available on the net).
Truthfully mind blowing...

[M-A Lagrange]

The question seems to be rhetorical in a country divided in 2 and actually in the middle of a peace process between the 2 parts.
But in fact, new info are putting this back in relevancy.

The appearances:

South Sudan army kills eight rebels in Unity State, pledges to crash them
June 3, 2010, (TURALEI) – The Southern Sudan army (SPLA) clashed with a renegade Colonel in Unity State killing eight of his men and pledged to crash his rebellion.
Colonel Galuak Gai is one of three SPLA officers who rebelled last April contesting the results of April elections. They accused the southern Sudan ruling party of rigging the elections. The three also said coordinating their fight against Juba government.
"Our forces have on Tuesday clashed with forces loyal to former southern police colonel, Galuak Gai, south west of Mayom County, killing eight of his men and are still following him with instructions to capture him dead or alive," SPLA spokesperson, General Kuol Deim Kuol, told Sudan Tribune, on Thursday.
Kuol disputed allegations that colonel Gai is coordinating with the former General, George Athor, who turned rebel after losing in April polls.
"All militia leaders report directly to national intelligence services in Khartoum," he said.
The spokesperson further confirmed arrest of the two SPLA officers on June 1 allegedly suspected of trying to recruit for David Yauyau of Jonglei, one of the militia leaders’ allied with Gen. Athor.
"They are suspected of trying to recruit people to go and join Yauyau," he said. They may be released if the investigation shows nothing."

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35280
And

Leaders from Murle community arrested in Juba
June 2, 2010 (JUBA) – A number of political and military leaders from the Murle community of Pibor County in Jonglei state have been arrested in the South Sudan’s capital, Juba. Mary Boyoi also explained that her uncle and others were denied to cast their ballot papers during the April elections because their names were already used by unknown individuals who used them to cast their votes.

“I know they all went to Pibor to vote. The day they were going to vote they found that their names had already been used to cast the ballot. So they left Pibor and returned to Juba. They did not involve themselves in any "rebellion".

Pibor County has recently witnessed a military standoff between the forces of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and supporters of David Yauyau, a former independent candidate who was angered by the alleged rigging of elections results and reportedly coordinated the move with the renegade former SPLA Deputy Chief of General Staff, George Athor Deng.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35272

Here are the small pitty facts which change everything:
From Global Witness:
Middle East Oil companies are conducting oil exploration in North Dafur
http://www.globalwitness.org/media_l...oil_exploratio

And from Romandi news, unfortunatelly in French:
Sudan : North and South may increase their oil production

http://www.romandie.com/infos/news2/...6.r4gma52q.asp

And the "surprising/unexpected" news :

Peace partners agree to "persuade" South Sudanese to vote for unity
"In accordance [with] the aforementioned commitments, the NCP and SPLM have agreed on the following general directives for the programme of the next government…implementation of the remaining provisions of the CPA in spirit of partnership and responsibility with the aim of contributing to persuade the people of Southern Sudan for voluntary unity," the agreement reads in part.
The two parties also agreed to improve institutional arrangements and carry out development in the South for the next seven months in addition to working to implement a media campaign with the aim to popularize the CPA throughout the country.
The agreement came as a surprise to many political analysts and observers who have criticized it as the work of the NCP to divide the SPLM leadership on the issues to do with self-determination and its two options of unity and secession.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35281

As I was posting previously, latest research in the field show that North South war in Sudan is all about economical resources domination, from both sides. May be not what Garang fought for but it is what reality shows.
It is also part of the big game. As Bill C commented on the article Africa’s irregular security threat, Africa came back as one of the most strategic place in the world nowadays as everybody is trying to get out of the Middle East energy dependency. And, by the way, Sudan is the number 1 oil source for China.
So, unlike the article from Sudan Tribune states, backing up unity is not so much a surprise for analyst. It is even the only solution. The one that many who followed this war for long did not really want to see as they putted too many efforts in crushing North.
In fact, what tends to be is a common interest for both parties to enjoy oil incomes. China is basically the main investor in oil field and Sudan the main oil supplier from China with 60 000 b/day on a 120 000 b/day imports. The oil refineries and pipeline are located in North and linking with Port Sudan. There are projects of pipe line between South and Kenya, just like the construction of Lamu port in Kenya. But this are long term planning and, here, we are talking about immediate enjoyment of oil revenues. Let’s be practical on that one.
But also, this really highlights one of the very deep root trigger of insurgency process both on birth and ending. If the 60 and 70 “insurgencies” were in fact liberation wars from oppressed groups against external powers (most of the time). The 21 century “insurgencies” and even the late 20 century onces, at least in Africa, are definitively economically protracted. And some how, this is may be why the old recipe of COIN political settlement is not working.
The 60 insurgencies were based on the raise of individual rights empowerment. Individuals had rights and as such they had the right to rebel and build new nations out of any colonial power.
The 2000 insurgencies are struggles to control state administrations to access not individual rights but individual enrichment. People’s interest and rights are no more the leading engine of those movements. Somehow, it is the counter balance reaction to those “60 insurgencies” which were revolutionary and counter revolutionary wars at that time from states trying to re ensure their hand on citizens. Like South Sudan rebellion started to defend southerners right to have a recognized different culture and equality of rights and is ending now in a pity struggle to share oil revenues between 2 barely democratic political parties.