View Poll Results: What is the near-term future of the DPRK

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  • It will fall into chaos as a result of renewed famine and poverty, resulting in military crackdowns.

    3 15.79%
  • There will be a military coup that displaces the current leadership, hopefully soon.

    4 21.05%
  • It will continue to remain a closed society, technologically dormant and otherwise insignificant.

    12 63.16%
  • The leadership will eventually make a misstep, forcing military action from the United States.

    0 0%
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Thread: North Korea: 2012-2016

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  1. #1
    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/asi...c/10160204.stm

    Only of interest and relevance if one wants to believe that Regular Warfare is a thing of the past.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

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    Default 2005 war game still has relevance...

    ...The Atlantic (Online)conducted a war-game, Pentagon style, in 2005 investigating and testing various hypotheses over how to deal militarily (and diplomatically) with the DPRK;

    North Korea: The War Game

  3. #3
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    How might a shooting war start? Defense analysts and military sources in Seoul and Washington agree that an outright, all-out attack by either side is unlikely. Even a nuclear armed North, a Seoul-based defense analyst says, "would not risk an all-out war because it would be the end of the regime. Period, full stop." But there are ways in which smaller skirmishes could break out, and if they aren't contained, they could conceivably lead to disaster. Here are three that are uppermost in defense planners' minds:
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/2010052...08599199192800
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  4. #4
    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Even a nuclear armed North, a Seoul-based defense analyst says, "would not risk an all-out war because it would be the end of the regime. Period, full stop."
    Someone can tell the future and see into the mind of of North Korean Leadership! Wow...
    Telling people what they want to hear is not useful in this case.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

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    Default Veteran DPRK analyst/watcher Joseph Bermudez ...

    ...reveals shifts in the DPRK's intelligence activities and organisation in

    A New Emphasis on Operations Against South Korea

    and

    Jeffrey Lewis askes whether North Korea can actually build a H-Bomb

    These and more at the informative 38 North website

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/asi...c/10160204.stm

    Only of interest and relevance if one wants to believe that Regular Warfare is a thing of the past.
    Maybe the North is crying out for a war so as to have something to blame/excuse their situation on. Want to go out in a blaze of glory rather than die of starvation? It time for Uncle Sam to do the right thing... where will the wind blow the fallout?

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    It time for Uncle Sam to do the right thing... where will the wind blow the fallout?
    Sir, apart from the amazing flippant (bordering on offensive) tone of many of your posts I shall address myself to the above comment alone.

    Yes. Uncle Sam should indeed do the right thing......sign a peace treaty ending the state of war between the North and the South/US (UN). It takes two to tango.

    For a good summary of the issues up to 2004 see; U.S-North Korean Relations, Asian Perspectives, Vol. 28, No. 4, 2004
    Last edited by Tukhachevskii; 06-18-2010 at 02:56 PM.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rex Brynen View Post
    Which means what, exactly?
    I suggest for background you read this article 10 lessons on empire before moving on to the big one The Decline and Fall of the British Empire, 1781-1997 and then for the gluttons for punishment this one Empire: The Rise and Demise of the British World Order and the Lessons for Global Power

    Certainly Brendon's book should be required reading for all British officers if only to balance the input indoctrination and propaganda over their lifetime.

    Surely it can be understood that the use of the "end justifies the means" can work both ways? One can't really be taken seriously when with a shocking record of skulduggery one cries fouls when the boot is on the other foot?

    There is no longer any guarantee that the Brit nation will blindly follow their government nor believe without question what it tells them... and not a moment too soon.

    The British people must live with the consequences of their voting in democratic elections but the permanent thread running through British foreign policy is an unelected clique of foreign office staff of very dubious ethical and moral character. Time for a clean out?
    Last edited by JMA; 06-18-2010 at 11:48 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Surely it can be understood that the use of the "end justifies the means" can work both ways? One can't really be taken seriously when with a shocking record of skulduggery one cries fouls when the boot is on the other foot?
    I remain at a bit of a loss how any of this relates to understanding of the North Korean mind/psyche (the subject of your original post)...
    They mostly come at night. Mostly.


  10. #10
    Council Member Kevin23's Avatar
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    Default Is Kim Jong-Il close to death?

    According to an article by the Telegraph, The reclusive leader of the DPRK is coming close to death and that Kim is increasingly becoming detached from daily governance in the North. Also due to this, actions by the North Korean government and speculation from outside the DPRK has lead many to believe that a successor to Kim will be announced sometime in September.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-to-death.html

  11. #11
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    Default I really should not be saying this, but...

    What I saw in the sinking was a rogue Military General making a cry for help to the US for assistance in a coup (or at least acknowledgement that we knew that they wanted to take control of the government)
    I pair it with MAO and Fidel original wanting a democracy and America being tone deaf.

    Remember the lack of bravado before and after the sinking. Kim would have made this HIS personal victory. The order would have to come from Kim, yet he was involved with trains to china and appearances as well. Kim is a very "controlling guy".

    Shortly after the sinking of the SKOR vessel, a very high ranking general was fired and a purge shortly followed. The regime is very weakened.
    China has been bribing guards all along the border and yes, sending in modern technology so the people see what is going on in the rest of the world. The GULAG is about to end there.

    Markets are to become legal again as such dire consequence the state their economy finds.

    It has never been this bad in NORK. It has already collapsed IMHO.
    The troops are getting edgy and the rice and grain sheds have been emptied to the population.
    Last step is lash out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/asi...c/10160204.stm

    Only of interest and relevance if one wants to believe that Regular Warfare is a thing of the past.
    I welcome comment from someone who understands the (North) Korean mind/psyche. (Yes I say this is a novel concept for the like pf the Brit Foreign Office and the US State department.)

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Yes I say this is a novel concept for the like of the Brit Foreign Office and the US State department.
    Which means what, exactly?
    They mostly come at night. Mostly.


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