Terrorism in Russia (merged thread)

[Tukhachevskii]

Dagestan has also been subject to twin bombings two days after Moscow (is there something about the No.2 I am missing here? Or is it pure coincidence?) It appears from initial reports that the perpetrators had similar targetting priorities to the Moscow group with Interiro Ministry and FSB facilities being targetted (could also have been a school). Perpetrators also enacted deception and security measures (apparently) by impersonating police/militsia officers. It is more likely the second bomber was ordered to cause as much havoc and destruction at whatever target the first managed to attack which see here:

Explosion In Dagestan Causes Casualties

also

Putin's anti-terror policies as President are under fire following Moscow Metro bombings

meanwhile

Families mourn for 39 victims of blast

[bourbon]

Perpetrators also enacted deception and security measures (apparently) by impersonating police/militsia officers.

They frequently do this. One particularly ugly example was during the 2004 raid on Nazran in Ingushetia which killed around 100 law enforcement officers (they mostly spared the traffic police). They set up a roadblock dressed as local law enforcement and checked motorists documents; any responding law enforcement officers were executed.

Local police in Dagestan are thoroughly penetrated by the rebels, and corruption is rife. The bomber may well have even been an actual policeman.

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to Raf at FreeRadicals Dr Cerwyn Moore has written a short commentary on the Moscow bombings: http://icsr.info/blog/Dr-Cerwyn-Moor...oscow-Bombings

He concludes:

The recent attacks in Moscow clearly result from recent federal successes in the low-intensity conflict which has beset the region since 2007. Whilst federal authorities have repeatedly claimed major successes, indicating that the insurgency was all but defeated, wide-scale poverty in the region, corruption and hard-line policies by Kremlin – repeated in recent days in statements by Vladimir Putin (which are, incidentally, eerily reminiscent of statements he made prior to the outbreak of the second Russo-Chechen War) - appointed strongmen, and apparatchiks have helped to radicalise a generation of new fighters willing to undertake ‘smertniki’ operations or suicide attacks.

[Dayuhan]

Seeing this in the news...

Addressing Russians' fears of a new wave of terror attacks, President Dmitry Medvedev made a surprise visit to Dagestan, where suicide bombers killed 12 Wednesday, and called for "crueler" measures against terrorists...

"We have torn off the heads of the most odious bandits, but clearly this was not enough," he said. Calling for expanding the range of measures against terror, he said, "They need to be not just more effective, but harsher, crueler."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...J_WSJ_US_World

Doesn't exactly sound like American COIN theory... I have to wonder if the translations are accurate, and how it translates to tactics on the ground, and what the consequences will be...

[Tukhachevskii]

Doku Umarov...has claimed responsibility for the Moscow attacks (intriguingly the piece makes no direct mention of him claiming responsibility for the attacks in Dagestan). If his group was behind it it could be intended as a message following the assasination of Said Buryatsky earlier last month. Althout it is more likely that Umarov merely whiches to re-assert/assert his authority over the traditionally independant minded jamaats. Given that his authority may have diminished for lack of activity (or the perception of activity) the jamaats may have spun out of his (nominal) control and upped the ante off their own bat.

On a related note the Russian armed forces have revived the concept of armoured trains in an effort to stem growing attacks on the railways infrastructure in the Chechnya region;

A review of recent attacks on railway infrastructure gives some sense of the growing problem:

• One person was killed in an explosion on railroad tracks near the Dagestani capital of Makhachkala on February 10. The bomb appears to have gone off prematurely, narrowly missing an incoming freight train carrying 20 tankers full of jet fuel .

• Militants fired two shots from a grenade launcher at militia quarters in the railway station at Nazran (Ingushetia) on February 2 (Chechenpress, February 2).

• Federal Security Service (FSB) forces in Dagestan announced the killing of a veteran Egyptian jihadist who had targeted railway infrastructure in the North Caucasus. Mahmud Muhammad Shaaban was killed in a shootout on February 2 (RIA Novosti, February 3).

• A cargo train including oil tankers was derailed by an explosion in Nazran on January 4 (Caucasian Knot, January 4).

• On November 30, 2009, a bomb went off under the Tyumen-Baku train in Dagestan, damaging the locomotive (The Moscow Times, December 1, 2009; ITAR-TASS, November 30, 2009).

• The Nevsky Express running between Moscow and St. Petersburg was derailed by a reported explosion on November 27. The FSB estimated seven kilograms of explosives were used (RIA Novosti, November 28). Though the Caucasus mujahideen claimed the explosion was carried out under the orders of their amir Dokka Umarov, elements of the police and many observers questioned the ability of the rebels to conduct such an operation. The mujahideen’s message included threats to carry out further attacks on rail lines and other Russian infrastructure.

• An explosion damaged the rail line between Makhachkala and Baku and set fire to a locomotive on November 26, 2009 (ITAR-TASS, November 26).

• A landmine blew up a section of rail in Makhachkala as a locomotive passed over on October 25 (Interfax, October 25).

• A section of the Baku-Rostov rail line near Makhachkala was destroyed by a bomb blast on October 12.

• A sapper was killed by an explosion on the rail line south of Makhachkala on July 2. The bombing occurred as a repair crew arrived to fix track destroyed earlier that day in another explosion (RIA Novosti, July 2, 2009).

[Tukhachevskii]

...Medvedev makes a surprise visit;

We must deal sharp dagger blows to the terrorists; destroy them and their lairs," Mr Medvedev said. "The list of measures to fight terrorism must be widened. They must not only be effective but tough, severe and preventative. We need to punish".

While Dagestan’s president, Magomedsalam Magomedov, sends mixed messages.

“[There was] a chance for terrorists to return to a peaceful life, but they have not taken it,” Magomedov said. “We will continue eliminating them until we eradicate them all. However, this does not mean that we will only use methods of force,” Magomedov added.

And...in Chechnya the internal situation slides further into the centre-periphery/patron-client dolldrums with the Chechen parliament criticising Medvedev's man, Aleksandr Khloponin, who was appointed Plenipotentiary Representative to the North Caucasus if only because...

it would have been both a fitting moral gesture and one of "political literacy" if Khloponin had acknowledged the devastation inflicted on Chechnya by making it the first of the North Caucasus republics he visited in his new official capacity. In fact his first visit was to North Ossetia.

...but also because...

rumors that have been circulating in Grozny for some weeks. Those rumors predict the imminent appointment to Khloponin's staff of two highly controversial figures: former Grozny Mayor Bislan Gantamirov and Interior Ministry Colonel Akhmed Khasambekov.

[bourbon]

Doku Umarov...has claimed responsibility for the Moscow attacks (intriguingly the piece makes no direct mention of him claiming responsibility for the attacks in Dagestan). If his group was behind it it could be intended as a message following the assasination of Said Buryatsky earlier last month.

Umarov stated the metro attacks were in retaliation for an incident on February 11 where civilians gathering wild garlic were killed or executed by members of the FSB; the bodies were also reportedly mutilated and showed signs of torture.

[davidbfpo]

A political context commentary:

The attacks, carried out by two female suicide bombers with apparent ties to radical Muslim groups, have highlighted the danger of the Islamist extremism that is a common threat for Russia and the West today but they have also been a troubling reminder of the threat Russians face from their own government.

Link:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...gs_105081.html

[bourbon]

I have to wonder if the translations are accurate,

Per the NYT:

"The Russian word that Mr. Medvedev used for “harsher” can also be translated as “crueler” or “severer,” and varying translations were published during the course of Thursday by English-language news media."

and how it translates to tactics on the ground, and what the consequences will be...

"Rape, murder! It's just a shot away. It's just a shot away"
- Gimme Shelter, Rolling Stones