Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
Let's just see where one is to begin with this so called article....

1. there is no "current ceasefire that is actually working"...was just a distraction to allow Assad and Iran using Russian support to continue fighting

2. to believe Assad with the current level of troops which are largely Iranian ...Iraqi Shia militias and Hezbollah can recapture the entire country is an outright farce of a myth

3. even if Assad took the cities all the country through which the LOCs to each of those towns would be rebel controlled and open game for a true guerrilla war that would last decades

4. the country is so destroyed as well as the critical infrastructure and agriculture it would take BILLIONS to reconstruct BILLIONS ehich neither Iran and or Putin have to spend on Syria when they need every dime they have themselves....

5. Assad and his merry band will eventually be charged with war crimes under ICC and if they ever stepped foot in a Western country they would be arrested...

6. so exactly how is FSA then to reconcile with Assad....actually never.....

The two core issues removal of Assad a genocidal dictator and a one sided Constitution is not discussed in this article.....
Note that I didn't post this article because I necessarily agreed with it...

RE:

1. It seemed to me that the latest abortive ceasefire was never adhered to by either Damascus or Teheran, despite their supposed inclusion, and that this was merely a political stunt by Ankara and Moscow to embarrass the United States.

2. Agreed. In hindsight, the only faction capable of conquering Sunni Arab Syria and perhaps all of Syria, was Daesh. I say this strictly from the perspective of organization and resources (Iraqi manpower, eastern Syrian oil and gas), as Daesh's ideology was its own undoing. Now, I can't see any one faction succeeding, although there is a coalition of sorts between the secular or moderate Sunni Arabs and the Islamist ones, on the basis of oppression by Alawites and Shias on the one hand, and Kurds on the other. I doubt that the opposition will be able to mobilize enough undecided Christians and Druze, or turn those on Assad's side...

3. Also agreed. Assad couldn't hold both the cities and lock down the borders to prevent supplies aiding a rural insurgency.

4. Remember the "Pottery Barn rule"? I hope that Russia and Iran have been contributing to a reconstruction fund...

5. Which is why if he steps down, he will be offered asylum in Iran most likely.

6. There is no one capable of imposing a ceasefire in Syria in order for truth and reconciliation to begin, and certainly neither Iran nor Russia want to deal with the truth of the matter that Assad is dependent upon foreign support...