Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
So I gather... but what exactly was it then, and what exactly is it now? Vague reference to unspecific threats are unhelpful: what exactly do Indian strategists fear would happen to India if the US withdrew from Afghanistan and the Taliban took over again?
The strategic threat, be it any form of Govt that is pro Pakistan, would affect India. You are well versed on Afghanistan and the strategy of all involved including bystanders, therefore, I will leave it to you to make your own deductions.

Let's put it in another way. China is far away from the US shores. So, why is the US so China centric in Asia and elsewhere?

From the article you cited:



I understand the concern over terrorism emanating from Pakistan, but what has that to do with Afghanistan? How would Pakistan-based terrorists pose a greater threat if Afghanistan were under Taliban control? Would that threat be severe and immediate enough to justify the enormous expense, and the potential for war with Pakistan, implicit in an Indian attempt to deny Afghanistan to the Taliban?
It is obvious.

One of the factions of the Taliban is the Haqqani faction. It's origins are with the Hizbe Islami Gulbuddin. As all are aware, Haqani maintains a wide and diverse relationship with terrorists, to include AQ, Uzbej, Chechen and Kashmiris.

The AQ and Taliban influence in fomenting terrorism in India is well known.

Pakistan based Taliban terrorists would migrate to Afghanistan if the situation improved, more so, if there was a government under the Talibans. It would also open up non traditional routes for them to India.

Expenses to fight terrorism will always be enormous. There can be no escape from it.

The expense of the Western forces is enormous since they fight a high tech war with a low tech 'enemy'. That would not be the way India would possibly approach the issue as mentioned in my earlier post. While air attacks and artillery may be prudent for 'economy of effort', the collateral damage and killing of bystanders only adds to the terrorist figures.

The undermentioned would indicate one aspect of the 'low tech' approach and the Kashmir model to keep the area relatively less hostile so that these type of low tech mode could be applied.

In the years since the fall of the Taliban in 2001, India's presence in Afghanistan has grown dramatically. India does not have a military presence in Afghanistan, but it does play a significant role in the country's reconstruction and has won support across Afghanistan's ethnic groups. India's proximity to the Hamid Karzai government and growing India-Afghanistan cooperation has raised hackles among the Taliban and in Pakistan.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JD24Df03.html


It must be understood, that though the Afghans are well versed in warfare of their type, yet the are also human beings and also prefer peace and having basic amenities. One has to open up a life for them as per their desires. For instance, if some requires a water filter in his house for clean water and you give him a hi tech water filter that he does not know how to operate and more so, to maintain, it will be of no use to him! So, give him something low tech and he will be happy. You cannot make a USA out of Afghanistan. It is not Instant coffee.

We have faced many insurgencies and some are still on going. They are not boiling over to cause a serious security concern. We do have some experience in the matter, and our actions have been in the realm of low tech and they work. It is not that countries that are not flush with funds are not capable of the 'high tech' COIN, they are. Sri Lanka is an example. However, pounding a fly with a sledge hammer does not always give the results desired. Who knows what foretells for Sri Lanka.

Can't discuss success and failure until you know what the goal is. What would be the purpose of an Indian operation in Afghanistan, other than denying Pakistani or Taliban control. We know what India doesn't want, but what would they try to install in its place?
Install?

I wonder if India wants to install anything or anybody. Karzai is fine for India. In fact, it is for the Afghans to decide.

If you had notice as to why India built the Chahbahar and the Zaranj-Delaram highway, the answer would be crystal clear.

I'm not sure "the goals of establishing a functioning Afghan state and seeing a moderate Pakistan emerge" really mean much, since neither the US nor India has the capacity to achieve those goals.
What is functioning Afghan state?

Is Pakistan a functioning State? A country where everyone is a Kalifa. Where there are three different centres of power - The Govt, the Army and the ISI and a hardcore spoiler - the TTP! A country that survive on US Aid, financial and mililtary and cannot even pay the interest on the borrowing from the IMF and WB! A country which sends a Minister to Saudi Arabia requesting for monies to shore up the Pakistan Nation Budget! A country that asks the US Drone attacks and cannot face up to its population to state that it is they who want the Drones and instead blames the US!! A country that breeds and harbours terrorists so as to destabilise other countries since they themselves are in the dumps and wants others to be in the same slot!

Therefore, the word 'functioning' and 'moderate' are merely subjective, meaningless and mere rhetoric!

Using aid projects and scholarships as bribes is actually a very American approach. It's not universally successful.
They are not bribes, if you ask me.

If imaginatively applied, they swing the popular support to the country that is giving such aid.

Patrice Lumumba University changed the students to be pro Soviet, China is funding scholarships for foreign students who are all quite pro China, likewise because now in every middle class family in India there is at least one who has had a US education or has worked there, the mindset has changed from pro USSR to pro US.

If the US companies themselves undertook the projects and their work observed by the locals, it would give a totally different meaning as compared to giving the money to Afghans to do as they like. It leads to corruption and the projects don't have the desired end result. The blame goes to the US. Of course, some top chaps in such projects and also some unskilled workers should be Afghans so that they learn the American way of working as also it would build a correct US Afghan relationship.

If y'all want to take the job over, I say go for it. Not like there's anything in it for us. I suspect you might find it less congenial and more complicated than you seem to expect!
We offered. The US found it not suited to their approach.

As I said insurgency is nothing new to India.

Been there, done that!!


No country will go into Afghanistan except to advance their own interests... would those interests be compatible with India's? Would their approaches be compatible with India"s? You know what they say about too many cooks spoiling the soup... and I don't think too many powers would want to be involved in Afghanistan in any event. It's not the sort of place people want to get involved, and there's not much there that anyone wants.
The spread of Islamic fundamentalist is a core issue with all countries except the Muslim countries. Even China is worried as reported in their newspaper, The Global Times.

Because you live in SE Asia, you would not understand it in the same way as those who live in the neighbourhood. A fundamentalist Islamic regime in Afghanistan would be worrisome to the CAR (even though they are Muslim), Russia, India and Iran.

In case you have reservation about Iran, it requires no elaboration about the sectarian hate the Shias have for the Sunnis and vice versa. Bahrain is live example. Further, they are most concerned about a Sunni regime leaning onto its borders as also of the Jundallah threat that is aided by Pakistan.


Of course, but that's of limited relevance to Afghanistan. The US presence in Afghanistan is a recruiting tool and a propaganda weapon for the jihadis, and really doesn't constrain them that much. Another 9/11 is as likely to be planned in Yemen or the Netherlands as on the Af/Pak frontier.
Therefore, one should not let it fructify.