View Poll Results: Evaluate Kilcullen's work on counterinsurgency

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  • Brilliant, useful

    26 45.61%
  • Interesting, perhaps useful

    26 45.61%
  • Of little utility, not practical

    1 1.75%
  • Delusional

    4 7.02%
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Thread: The David Kilcullen Collection (merged thread)

  1. #361
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    Default COIN and the break down in our own society

    [QUOTE=Arnie;102354][QUOTE=William F. Owen;102233]
    Dave Kilcullen cannot tell you because he can't tell the future. Neither can anyone else. Even if he could it wouldn't have much if any impact on training. Just do the stuff you've had to do in the past.

    Crystal balls are hard to find I agree, but it seems in many facets of human endeavour we are always planning strategies and operations on the past in the hope we will avert a similar tragedy or event in the future.

    Is COIN really any different to the "war" that has been waged in our cities between our social justice systems and a crime, drug and violence fuelled neighbourhood? This sector of our population can feel pretty isolated and lacking in representation so looks to other avenues. The Police, social workers, volunteers, NGOs and Government services try to set in a different levels to counter the criminal and gang activity that exploits this mess. May be we need to hire reformed gang leaders to help with COIN in Afghanistan?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-05-2010 at 07:29 AM. Reason: PM to author about what should be in the quote

  2. #362
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
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    Default Whyskey Tango Foxtrot?

    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    What's the difference between ideology and religion and politics and the relationship between a populace and its government? These are all exactly the same thing.
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  3. #363
    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arnie View Post
    Is COIN really any different to the "war" that has been waged in our cities between our social justice systems and a crime, drug and violence fuelled neighbourhood?
    Maybe the form is similar but criminals are subject to the criminal justice system. War is generally something exempt from that. You can only have effective criminal justice, when you actual physical control. War is generally a competition for that physical control.
    May be we need to hire reformed gang leaders to help with COIN in Afghanistan?
    Personally I'd hire Gang leaders who have hunted down and killed their competition, and exert tight control and authority over their communities. The reformed ones tend to reject violence.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

  4. #364
    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    Politics is power over people. Functionally that is the aim of religion. All religion is based in ideology. - Ideas. Ideas as to the right and wrong way for peoples and societies to conduct themselves are politics.

    The US was founded on only allowing secular ideas into politics, because it wanted religious tolerance. Essentially it wanted to artificially bar religion from politics - something that is practically impossible to do.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

  5. #365
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    Default Religion, politics and all that...

    Carl Schmitt would most certainly agree, as do I, with Wilf's assertion above which see Political Theology: Four Chapters on the Concept of Sovereignty

    All significant concepts of the modern theory of the state are secularised theological concepts not only because of their historical development - in which they were transformed from theology to the theory of the state, whereby, for example, the omnipotent God became the omnipotent lawgiver - but also because of their systematic structure, the recognition of which is necessary for a sociological consideration of these concepts. The exception in jurisprudence is analogous to the miracle in theology. Only by being aware of this analogy can we appreciate the manner in which the philosophical ideas of the state developed in tha last centuries (p.36)
    Of course the separation between the omnipotent G-d and the omnipotent lawgiver does not exist in Islam, nor does the separation of church and state. Ironically, it took the Reformation, the rise of humanism (fuelled by the Reformation and the Rennaissance in classical learning) , the Treaty of Augsberg (accepting the division of Christendom into two major sects), the Thirty Years War, the Treaty of Utrecht (sanctioning the balance of power as a principle of international politics and the state as the primary actor in it) and the secularist bias of the Enlightenment (and its incredulity to metanarratives), and the concomitant replacement of the theological epistemology with a rationalist scientific one (although that didn't mean people like Newton and Kant weren't religious) to actually bring about this norm!. Once the Catholic Church's role in legitimating the divine right of kings had been sundered and replaced with nationalism the legitimacy of kings no longer required divine sanction thus paving the way for personal freedom in terms of faith (no longer a political problem with transnational/geopolitical ramifications) and the rise of the national state and the concepts of citizenships, rights, duties, obligations, etc. But the imprint of Christianity, like Roman and Greek civilisation beofre it, was still present in a "sanitised" version (as per Schmitt). Thought we often don't notice people not belonging to our civilisation are the first to pick it up. The separation of church and state, for instance, though sounding secular to us is the equivalence of blasphemy to Muslims given that they see it as an imposition of Christian norms even though we don't use it (or understand it) that way (anymore).

    For an intersting perspective with respect to Islam see, Islam and Globalisation: Secularism, Religion and Radicalism
    Last edited by Tukhachevskii; 07-05-2010 at 09:54 AM.

  6. #366
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tukhachevskii View Post
    Of course the separation between the omnipotent G-d and the omnipotent lawgiver does not exist in Islam, nor does the separation of church and state.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alevites

    "Modern Alevi theology has been profoundly influenced by humanism, universalism and the ancient Turkic shamanistic belief, tengriism.

    The 1990s brought a new emphasis on Alevism as a cultural identity. Alevi communities today generally support secularism in the form of the Kemalist model."

  7. #367
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
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    Default So, you are a "Pied Piperist"?

    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    Politics is power over people. Functionally that is the aim of religion. All religion is based in ideology. - Ideas. Ideas as to the right and wrong way for peoples and societies to conduct themselves are politics.

    The US was founded on only allowing secular ideas into politics, because it wanted religious tolerance. Essentially it wanted to artificially bar religion from politics - something that is practically impossible to do.
    So, is your position one that if ideology exists that is not adhered to by the current government, so therefore otherwise well governed and satisfied citizens rise up in insurgency in order to ensure that a new government that is consistent with their ideology is in power? I would challenge anyone to show me a single historic case of this happening.

    Even the explosion of Islam across the Middle East in its first two generations were far more about power, plunder and domination than they were about spreading the good word. Ideology of Islam was "merely" the essential ingredient, the catalyst to rally the masses to take on and sustain the endeavor.

    Certainly the US revolution had nothing to do with religion. Even such famous ideologs as Mao and Ho were out to throw off illegitimate governance, communism was employed because it worked in that time, that place, that populaces under that condition to motivate them to rise up and challenge existing regimes.

    American revolutionaries were keen that the government not be slave to any one particular religion, nor that the government be able to enslave any man to any particular religion as well. Not a pursuit of secularity, but rather a pursuit of choice. (not withstanding current debate between liberals demanding secularity and conservatives demanding Christianity. I think both miss the point of what was intended) Interestingly, Saudi rebels push for what is almost the opposite of this. They demand that the government adhere more closely to one religion and not allow choice or secularity to corrupt the law of God.
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  8. #368
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Who says this, and where? I'd be curious about the supporting arguments, as I'm reasonably familiar with the situation and I don't see it that way at all.

    Of course I also think the "global insurgency" construct is a deeply stretched idea that is more harmful than helpful, so perhaps I shouldn't be asking about it!
    Sorry for being vague. I've heard it in two wargame situations over the last two years- one ran by the military, one by academia. I confess to not knowing too much about Indonesia, and I was skeptical as well.

    And yes, I would tend to fall into the camp that viewing every problem as a military one is much more harmful than helpful. When I'm feeling very pessimistic, I think that we're following the exact playbook that UBL wants us to.

  9. #369
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    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    Personally I'd hire Gang leaders who have hunted down and killed their competition, and exert tight control and authority over their communities. The reformed ones tend to reject violence.
    Ah ha, "The One Minute Guerrilla Solution." You would win !

  10. #370
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    Interestingly, Saudi rebels push for what is almost the opposite of this. They demand that the government adhere more closely to one religion and not allow choice or secularity to corrupt the law of God.
    It might be more accurate to say that a certain faction of Saudi dissidents demand that the government adhere to a particular interpretation of one religion... not surprisingly, an interpretation that keeps them in a position of power and authority.

    Saudi religious conservatives see modernization, prosperity, and materialism as a fundamental threat to their position and power. They can't directly attack modernization, prosperity, and materialism because they know that the populace at large is quite fond of all three... so they couch their rhetoric in terms of resistance to western domination and adherence to tradition. Mush of the populace, of course, sees through that deception, which is why the jihad gets support when it's fought abroad and much less support when it's fought at home. It's less about western political domination - which does not of course exist - than it is about a struggle between the attractions of modernity and the sentimental drive to tradition.

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    One of my professors at SOAS, who had spent a number of years living in Western Kurdistan (or Eastern Turkey) once described Alevi-sim (and, for that matter, Alawi-ism) on par with many of the remnants of pre-Islamic beliefs (especially in Kurdish areas; which include the above named belief systems) as psuedo-Islamic sects which mixed Islamic theology and practices into a syncretic "mosaic" (largely to protect their true beliefs; an inverted form of taqqiyah) which had little to do with Islam and which Muslims themselves from both Shia' and Sunni branches considered heretical. Your quote below ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    "Modern Alevi theology has been profoundly influenced by humanism, universalism and the ancient Turkic shamanistic belief, tengriism.[/I]
    ...merely reinforces what I was taught.

  12. #372
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    Default I detect a hysteron-protoron fallacy here...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    Even the explosion of Islam across the Middle East in its first two generations were far more about power, plunder and domination than they were about spreading the good word. Ideology of Islam was "merely" the essential ingredient, the catalyst to rally the masses to take on and sustain the endeavor.
    ...but I could be wrong. Although I agree with much of the above I have to say that the proposition that Islam was an ideological catalyst for the explosion of the forces of Islam seems to imply that the Arab tribes that had embraced it( or equally, were coerced into embracing it, especially after the Battle of Badr) were already predisposed to desiring power and dominion and Islam merely freed them to go about their bloody business with a free consicence. In your schema Islam merely becomes a universal and rationalised form of assabiyyah. I would take the opposite view; that Islam is what exploded (although the other forces added to the mix). I would also see assabiyah as having been superviened upon by Islam (as a meta-habitus)Plunder, OTOH, was always a traditional tactic of Bedouin/tribal pastoralists.
    Last edited by Tukhachevskii; 07-05-2010 at 03:23 PM.

  13. #373
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    Be sure to check out Bing West's review of Kilcullen's Counterinsurgency (among other books): http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=23564

  14. #374
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    So, is your position one that if ideology exists that is not adhered to by the current government, so therefore otherwise well governed and satisfied citizens rise up in insurgency in order to ensure that a new government that is consistent with their ideology is in power? I would challenge anyone to show me a single historic case of this happening.
    Can't quite follow the idea here. My position is that conflicts are cause by politics. Politics is indivisible from religion, ideology or ideas. All wars are wars of "ideas". The differentiation is meaningless.

    Any time you have a "religious conflict," it is ALWAYS a political conflict. They are the same thing.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

  15. #375
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    Starbuck:

    Good citation.

    I am always fascinated by the dichotomy between localized, low level discussions of COIN, by the folks struggling under great personal threat to apply it, and the incompetence at the higher levels to understand what it is or how the local efforts can succeed and connect to anything bigger or sustainable.

    Bing West joins Entropy and I in beating the dead horse of Lord Kelvin---If you can count it, you can know something about it. Almost ten years in, and no Americans know whether there are 20 or 34 million Afghans---but we know, or pretend to know that 12 million of them are in US-supported schools.

    Bet some NGO can cite a bogus enrollment figure down to the last kindergartener, but it obviously doesn't mean much.

    To me, as long as the big US gaps remain basics like functional Combat Demographics, and Governmental Process Mapping, this stuff is just a bunch of theorists making noise while soldiers struggle in the field without adequate planning, resourcing and strategy that could do anything other than, year after year, asking for another year.

    Getting serious and honest at the upper levels would be a good start to finding meaningful solutions, but, right now, as West notes, COIN is a theory in search of a War to prove it.

    My guess is that if General Petreaus creates meaningful solutions (whatever that means), they will later be disclosed to have been driven by SF, CT, and just plain killing bad guys. The population will, afterwards, be no better or worse off than it was before. The rest is smoke....the kind that regularly blows around the Beltway.

  16. #376
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    Default Surface and Subsurface Elements of an Insurgency

    Okay, so I let my personal and professional life take me away from my study of warfare for a couple of weeks. I know, I know, no excuses. Back on track.

    One area where Dr. K and I find common ground is his definition of the composition and nature of an insurgency. IMO, he is an expert in this arena. As he's finishing up the introduction, he offers a picture to illustrate the components. Figure 1.1 Surface and Subsurface Elements of an Insurgency (p. 8). I can't find one previously published so I'll describe it and offer my thoughts.

    He starts with a pyramid of insurgency design. From top to bottom, it's

    1. Insurgents/Terrorists
    2. Supporting Infrastructure
    3. Sympathetic networks
    4. Population base

    He then immerses this pyramid into water with with a broad deliniation of the detection threshold.

    This is a marvelous viewpoint. As Dr. Gordon McCormick tells us (paraphrased), "an insurgency is really not an assymetrical fight, at least not in the beginning. The host nation retains a comparative advantage in Mass through it's military arm, but the insurgent maintains a comparative advantage in information. He can see us, but we cannot see him."

    It is exactly like standing on the shore and looking at the ocean. One can see the tide roll in and out. For most, they are comfortable in describing the ocean in that manner. However, when one takes the time to dive deep into the water, another world appears. Insurgencies are no different, and a true counterinsurgent must determine how best to dive deep into the water and see what's going on.

    So, I applaud this figure.

  17. #377
    Council Member Backwards Observer's Avatar
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    Default cherchez la femme

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    "...but the insurgent maintains a comparative advantage in information. He can see us, but we cannot see him."
    Oddly enough, this was the first concept they taught us in a feminist literature class in the Eighties (the 1980s, not 1880s). They even used a venn diagram for the "dumb guys" in the class; being slower than most, I didn't even understand the venn diagram.

    Apparently, the idea was that male culture is a lot more "present" than female culture. Some further argued (loudly) that "female culture", as commonly understood, was also largely a product of male culture. Therefore, "true" female culture is to a great extent, unknown. There was also an implication that the visibility of male culture made it easier for the savvy feminist or femme fatale to manipulate those who unquestioningly accepted its symbolic heft.

    Out of the five guys in the class, one dropped in the first week and three more by mid-term. I made it through but had to take a semester off to recover. It was an interesting class, however.

  18. #378
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backwards Observer View Post
    Oddly enough, this was the first concept they taught us in a feminist literature class in the Eighties (the 1980s, not 1880s). They even used a venn diagram for the "dumb guys" in the class; being slower than most, I didn't even understand the venn diagram.
    So, that's what I've been missing all these years .

  19. #379
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    Default Your grandfather's Oldsmobile

    I don't have Kilcullen's latest, but your description of his Figure 1.1 Surface and Subsurface Elements of an Insurgency (p. 8) clicked a residuary brain cell.

    Back in the 1960s - the era of muscle car Oldsmobiles (your grandfather's big block rubber stripping 442), SORO (American University, Special Operations Research Office, a non-governmental agency operating under contract with the Department of the Army) published two studies:

    1963 Undergrounds in Insurgent, Revolutionary, and Resistance Warfare - SORO.pdf

    1966 Human Factors Considerations of Undergrounds in Insurgencies - SORO.pdf

    Both are on the "Suggested readings on insurgency and counterinsurgency" from That Place on the Hudson.

    The 1966 study had a pyramid (Fig 6) which looked like so:

    SORO Pyramid.jpg

    So no one will have to squint, I'm attaching a pdf file with Fig 6 and SORO's explanation for its pyramid.

    The question is whether the 2010 muscle car is an improvement over the 1966 model. It also may involve the ultimate Wilfian concept that nothing under the sun is new.

    Your analysis of these two 45-years-of-separation vehicles is sought.

    Regards (from your grandfather Ransom, who is happy to see you screw off every now and then)

    Mike
    Attached Files Attached Files
    Last edited by jmm99; 07-14-2010 at 12:48 AM.

  20. #380
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
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    Default Tip this pyramid over on an angle...

    Quote Originally Posted by jmm99 View Post
    I don't have Kilcullen's latest, but your description of his Figure 1.1 Surface and Subsurface Elements of an Insurgency (p. 8) clicked a residuary brain cell.

    Back in the 1960s - the era of muscle car Oldsmobiles (your grandfather's big block rubber stripping 442), SORO (American University, Special Operations Research Office, a non-governmental agency operating under contract with the Department of the Army) published two studies:

    1963 Undergrounds in Insurgent, Revolutionary, and Resistance Warfare - SORO.pdf

    1966 Human Factors Considerations of Undergrounds in Insurgencies - SORO.pdf

    Both are on the "Suggested readings on insurgency and counterinsurgency" from That Place on the Hudson.

    The 1966 study had a pyramid (Fig 6) which looked like so:

    SORO Pyramid.jpg

    So no one will have to squint, I'm attaching a pdf file with Fig 6 and SORO's explanation for its pyramid.

    The question is whether the 2010 muscle car is an improvement over the 1966 model. It also may involve the ultimate Wilfian concept that nothing under the sun is new.

    Your analysis of these two 45-years-of-separation vehicles is sought.

    Regards (from your grandfather Ransom, who is happy to see you screw off every now and then)

    Mike
    ...and you could superimpose it over the Jones Insurgency Model.
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

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