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Thread: Operationalizing The Jones Model through COG

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  1. #1
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    My point was that the Saudis DO NOT sell us discount oil in exchange for commiting our national treasure, reputation and blood to their continued defense. They see it as their right.
    Possibly they simply see it as a mutual interest, which it is. We defend the Saudis against external aggression because it is in our interest to do so. Why would we expect to be paid, or given concessions, for acting in our own interest?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    Most Saudi's want moderate reforms, such as a judiciary not controlled by the King (Justice, anyone?); Others would like to have some voice (Hope) in the system; others greater equality (Respect); many perceive (and this perception is targeted heavily by OBL, who is not a Saudi insurgent, he is conducting UW to incite and leverage the Saudi populace to rise up) that the King would not be such a bad guy but that he has lost his way in eroding his support to what the people want in favor of his relationship with the US, thereby calling his (legitimacy) into question.
    I wouldn't presume to know what most Saudis want.

    I do know that in the 90s many Saudis believed (and stated) that there was a connection between the continued American military presence and the painfully low (for them) price of oil. That perception was inaccurate, but it was widespread and had an extremely negative impact on Saudi perceptions of the US. There was a widespread belief that the US troops would never leave, that the US would never allow Saudi Arabia to get what they saw as a fair price for oil, that the US would never allow Saudi Arabia the international position that they thought it deserved, that the US would ultimately begin converting Muslims and violating the holy places, etc. Those beliefs created a great deal of resentment and friction. They are also gone. The American troops are gone, the holy places are unviolated, no conversions happened. The price of oil soared, and the US just paid up, like everyone else. At the height of the oil price spike President Bush went to Riyadh to ask the king to pump more oil; the King told him that the problem was speculation, not supply, and refused. The regional implications of that visit, long forgotten by most Americans, are profound. The claim that the US controls the king is empty, and everyone knows it but the most blinded religious extremists.

    I don't think any significant number of Saudis see any connection between US influence and their own complaints with the local justice system... or any other local issues. There's a great deal of internal conflict on these issues, generally between (relative) progressives and the religious traditionalists, but the US has no real influence on internal affairs. I've heard all kinds of accusations directed at the US by Saudis, many of them pretty wild, but I've never heard anyone claim that the US is obstructing reform in the Saudi justice system. I've heard a lot of complaint about US pressure to reform that justice system in accord with our view of human rights, but nobody saying that the US is preventing change or reform.

    I repeat... what exactly do you think we could do to force the Saudis to modify their domestic policies, and what specific modifications in Saudi domestic policy would you seek?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    Every culture is different and needs to develop guiding documents and forms of govenrance that work for them. But there are principles that can be derived from American documents that are proven effective in the prevention of Governmental abuses and the resultant insurgency that comes from such abuses.
    Possibly so, and there are lessons as well in the founding principles and experiences of many other nations. If others choose to learn from these, or use them as models, all well and good. We can't force anyone to do that, and if we try to push anyone in that direction we're likely to end up driving them away from it. People don't like to be pushed, and it's not our role or responsibility to be telling others how to govern themselves. To help, perhaps, if we're asked to help... and even then we have to be very careful and very restrained. But to take the initiative in some sort of behaviour modification program aimed at other nations... nothing there but trouble, I'm afraid. If we go around telling people not to despair, we are coming to save them with our carrots and our sticks, I really don't anticipate a very positive reaction.

  2. #2
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Possibly so, and there are lessons as well in the founding principles and experiences of many other nations. If others choose to learn from these, or use them as models, all well and good. We can't force anyone to do that, and if we try to push anyone in that direction we're likely to end up driving them away from it. People don't like to be pushed, and it's not our role or responsibility to be telling others how to govern themselves. To help, perhaps, if we're asked to help... and even then we have to be very careful and very restrained. But to take the initiative in some sort of behaviour modification program aimed at other nations... nothing there but trouble, I'm afraid. If we go around telling people not to despair, we are coming to save them with our carrots and our sticks, I really don't anticipate a very positive reaction.

    Important points and I think you and Col. Jones are closer to the same concepts than you think. If you use the Jones model as I understand it, all you would be doing is helping that country establish the good government that it wants not what we (US) want. The real problem as I see it is if you ask a local population the 4 questions we (US) may get answers that we don't like. And because of that we may have to face the fact that sometimes we should just leave people (other countries) alone.

  3. #3
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
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    A couple of minor, yet significant refinements:

    I believe that an essential concept for understanding insurgency, and by correlation, being able to design and implement effective COIN campaigns, is that of "Conditions of Insurgency" that are present in every society, but that fluctuate based upon popular perceptions of governance.

    My definition as I currently think of this concept:

    "Conditions of Insurgency: A state of mind. The conditions of insurgency arguably exist to some degree within every populace. In most cases such conditions are benign in that they are not strong enough to support the rise of a significant insurgent organization, even if manipulated by outside actors conducting UW or by ideological themes designed for this audience. As perceptions of poor governance increase so does the degree of the conditions of insurgency. Left unchecked these conditions are apt to be exploited by internal and/or external parties for purposes of their own that may or may not have the welfare of the affected populace in mind. Conditions of insurgency are caused by the government and assessed through the perspective of the populace."

    And an updated chart to show what this might look like:
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  4. #4
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Bob, so what would be an outline to counter these conditions?

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