Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[TheCurmudgeon]

Playing favorites with the Tatars in Crimea may keep Tatars all over Russia from become the next group of terrorists in Russia. Too bad Putin doesn't really have similar options in Dagestan and Chechnya. Of course today's other disgruntled ethnicities in Crimea may become the terrorists of tomorrow, as you note indirectly.

Ahhhhh, but that is Putin's greatest weakness. He is favoring the Russkies over the Russian citizens. At other times he is favoring Tatars over Russkies. If we were smart we would be exploiting this in our rhetoric. But we are not, because we are a democracy, and democracies don't believe in ethnic difference, only ethnic diversity ... and so we will miss our greatest opportunity to divide Russia and weaken Putin.

[Dayuhan]

Russia is weak. But that weakness is only exposed if they are opposed. A boxer with a glass jaw will never lose if nobody ever throws a punch at him. That is not to say that they don't have some strength, as Stan says, but some strength is not winning strength. If we don't throw a punch so to speak, their glass jaw is no weakness.

This isn't a boxing match... more like a potential bar brawl. It's also a bar brawl where the protagonists have pistols in their waistbands, only in this case the pistols fire nukes, which makes throwing punches at jaws a prospect that could lead to all sorts of unpleasant places.

The US managed the Cold War by not throwing punches at jaws, but by containment, isolation, trading space for time (as The Curmudgeon aptly put it) where necessary, and letting the antagonist rot out from the inside, with a bit of occasional help. This isn't the Cold War - Russia hasn't anything like the global network or capacity that the Soviet Union had - but Russia's poorly managed and vulnerable economy is still a weakness, and there's no reason a similar strategy can't work again. It will take time, of course... but it really necessary to start swinging punches at jaws, given where that can lead?

Of course that strategy can only work if Europe is on board and actively participating... but since the threat is to Europe in the first place, you'd think they's at least be willing to discuss it.

[Dayuhan]

But the US is a control freak in that it wants to micro manage everything - in this example NATO. So like children Europe was brought up by a domineering parent and finds itself incapable of acting independently like adults (when the domineering parent departs).

Bollocks. The Europeans aren't children, and the US didn't make them what they are. Whatever they are or have become is the consequence of their choices, and it is their own responsibility. They chose their course, and they can change it if they want to. That's not up to the US.

Then the US has been reducing its force levels in Europe and thereby their ability to comply with Article 5 responsibilities regardless of the status of European preparedness.

Would the status of European preparedness ever have changed if the US had maintained forces in Europe?

I see no logic in expecting the US to spend for the defense of those who are more than capable of providing for themselves.

[Fuchs]

Thanks, I looked at this thread a few hours ago and wondered whether anybody else would add some sense to this nonsense.

Then the US has been reducing its force levels in Europe and thereby their ability to comply with Article 5 responsibilities regardless of the status of European preparedness.

Hint: There's no such thing.
Read article 5. I mean really- read it. Not hearsay.
The real word North Atlantic Treaty Article Five not a stern article with actual obligations, but a "do what you want" thing.


http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/...exts_17120.htm

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .

My emphasis.



I noticed again and again that in anglophone political discussions some people make up responsibilities, obligations and rights on the fly, trying to assert authority out of thin air. They invent a duty/obligation/responsibility when they want something particular done yet lack the arguments or evidence to support their opinion. They invent a right when they don't want something particular done.

I swear I cannot remember this as being an even remotely as popular rhetoric device in Germanophone communication. In fact, I only remember one example right now (admittedly, it's straight from a federal minister).

[carl]

I see no logic in expecting the US to spend for the defense of those who are more than capable of providing for themselves.

There are the Europeans, writ large. They are sort of a theoretical concept, easy to turn your back on, those greedy selfish ingrates.

Then there are the Poles, the Czechs, the Ukrainians, the Estonians etc. Those are actual people who do need our help, the Ukrainians, now-and may need our help, now too (I was going to say later but no, now is better), everybody else. It is harder to turn a back to them, "Sorry Stash, the Russians ain't as bad as you remember."

[JMA]

Carl,

Once again you have hit the nail on the head.

In Timothy Snyder's book Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin he chronicles the destruction wrought the mass killings of 14 million people carried out/caused by - those peace loving nations - Germany and Russia between 1933-45. Just in those years!

The Germans have been taken care of where their military ability is now close to zero as it should be ... but the smart guys in DC let the Russians off lightly. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

Russia has waited for the moment of greatest weakness to make their move...

There are the Europeans, writ large. They are sort of a theoretical concept, easy to turn your back on, those greedy selfish ingrates.

Then there are the Poles, the Czechs, the Ukrainians, the Estonians etc. Those are actual people who do need our help, the Ukrainians, now-and may need our help, now too (I was going to say later but no, now is better), everybody else. It is harder to turn a back to them, "Sorry Stash, the Russians ain't as bad as you remember."

[Ulenspiegel]

There are the Europeans, writ large. They are sort of a theoretical concept, easy to turn your back on, those greedy selfish ingrates.

Then there are the Poles, the Czechs, the Ukrainians, the Estonians etc. Those are actual people who do need our help, the Ukrainians, now-and may need our help, now too (I was going to say later but no, now is better), everybody else. It is harder to turn a back to them, "Sorry Stash, the Russians ain't as bad as you remember."

The first step of an useful strategic analysis should be to sort the facts:

1) We have Ukraine.

2) We have the other countries like Poland, Czech Republic, Estonia...

The crucial difference between 1 and 2 is that the latter are in TWO organisations with mutual (military) assistence as part of the deal.

In contrast, the Ukraine is member of none. Therefore, to combine in an argument 1+2 does not pass a simple smell test.

In case of Ukraine, considering the economic reality with clear advantages on the western side, a low level economic war is the best we could do.

It is a kind of strategic hyperventilation when the events in Ukraine are sold as the equivalent of the occupation of parts of a NATO or EU member.

[Firn]

The first step of an useful strategic analysis should be to sort the facts:

1) We have Ukraine.

2) We have the other countries like Poland, Czech Republic, Estonia...

The crucial difference between 1 and 2 is that the latter are in TWO organisations with mutual (military) assistence as part of the deal.

In contrast, the Ukraine is member of none. Therefore, to combine in an argument 1+2 does not pass a simple smell test.

Indeed it is just a non-aligned country which has been invaded by Russia, not a NATO or EU country. Sadly from an Ukrainian perspective it seems to be a difference between day and night.

From an European perspective (far) harder economic sanctions, supported by harsher US policies will be effective at inflicting great harm on the Russian economy. Needless to repeat that it's depth and width will mostly depend on the quality, quantity and timelenght of those Western actions.

Inside the EU those who wanted to give Russia chance after chance to de-escalate should be under greatly increased pressure after the latest Russian attacks. We will see what comes out of the latest internal talks.

Europe Stockpiles Gas Against Potential Russian Supply Cut

Ukraine has stopped to pay for obvious reasons for Russian gas. We will see how well and for how long it can be supplied from the West.

P.S: Every major European power has attacked other countries in the last three hundred years to achieve it's political goals so one can hardly single out Germany or Russia. The key difference IMHO between recent Western actions and Russias is that the latter is waging a war of conquest with the goal to annex territory.

[OUTLAW 09]

An interesting article on the fact that NATO should be building a monument for Putin.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinio...in/498022.html

[OUTLAW 09]

With all the power of the NSA/CIA/DIA that has been released by Snowden we cannot seem to get a single voice intercept of a "proRussian non Russian uniformed Russians" on a single cell phone conversation which if one watches the approximately 20 online videos released by the proRussian defense groups out of eastern Ukraine they are all on cells at every event.

It takes the SBU to release a great cell conversation between Russia area code +7 and "proRussian non Russian uniformed Russians" on the ground in eastern Ukraine concerning the various attacks in and around Donetsk.

There needs to be more of this released daily to western media until it reaches a drumbeat in order to roll over a very good Russian I/O campaign being carried out in Europe and basically ignored by US media.

That is the least the US/NATO can do to provide flanking support if no boots are to be on the ground and until someone can come up with a coherent strategy.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...sk-343563.html

[carl]

Outlaw 09:

The things we could do that we aren't doing results in a combination of head banging frustration and amazed wonderment. In addition to what you mention we could detail Putin's financial holdings, especially those abroad. That would cause him big trouble, maybe personally fatal trouble. But we won't do it.

They say God looks out for drunks and Americans but even He expects a little help.

[OUTLAW 09]

With all the power of the NSA/CIA/DIA that has been released by Snowden we cannot seem to get a single voice intercept of a "proRussian non Russian uniformed Russians" on a single cell phone conversation which if one watches the approximately 20 online videos released by the proRussian defense groups out of eastern Ukraine they are all on cells at every event.

It takes the SBU to release a great cell conversation between Russia area code +7 and "proRussian non Russian uniformed Russians" on the ground in eastern Ukraine concerning the various attacks in and around Donetsk.

There needs to be more of this released daily to western media until it reaches a drumbeat in order to roll over a very good Russian I/O campaign being carried out in Europe and basically ignored by US media.

That is the least the US/NATO can do to provide flanking support if no boots are to be on the ground and until someone can come up with a coherent strategy.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...sk-343563.html

The Kiev Post moved the voice intercept to this link.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...ow-343644.html

[kaur]

The guy, who is talking from Russian side as contact person is identified as Alexander Borodai. He was in Prohhanov's camp (the guy who compared Stalin and Putin in one table) which means conservative Russian pro Soviet union movement. Prohhanov has journal Zavtra and TV channel Den-TV (which motto is fight against Bolotnaja movement). Prohhanov is connected to Rogozin's "Rodina" and leads "Rodina's" splinter movement http://dobrovol.info/ This movement is has cooperation with cossacs movements across Russia. If you follow videos from Eastern Ukriane, you can see fat guys in camoflage and cossack hats. My speculation is that Borodai is coordinating cossack units from Russia in coordination with his supervisors. According to open sources he left Zavtra to murky waters of PR business. It seems that this time this is black propaganda XXL. Putin's spokesperson Peskov says that there are no Russian troops. There are just paramilitaries.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQjJ5rWzlSY

[OUTLAW 09]

The guy, who is talking from Russian side as contact person is identified as Alexander Borodai. He was in Prohhanov's camp (the guy who compared Stalin and Putin in one table) which means conservative Russian pro Soviet union movement. Prohhanov has journal Zavtra and TV channel Den-TV (which motto is fight against Bolotnaja movement). Prohhanov is connected to Rogozin's "Rodina" and leads "Rodina's" splinter movement http://dobrovol.info/ This movement is has cooperation with cossacs movements across Russia. If you follow videos from Eastern Ukriane, you can see fat guys in camoflage and cossack hats. My speculation is that Borodai is coordinating cossack units from Russia in coordination with his supervisors. According to open sources he left Zavtra to murky waters of PR business. It seems that this time this is black propaganda XXL. Putin's spokesperson Peskov says that there are no Russian troops. There are just paramilitaries.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQjJ5rWzlSY

kaur---went through the YouTube video---saw the fat guy with Cossack hat--but who were the small group of about 6-7 who unloaded from the truck and one was carrying the rocket launcher over his shoulder----they were better equipped and more professional.

Have you been listening to/watching the proRussian eastern Ukrainian videos being released on------just my intuition ---once they got into a number of the buildings the various groups seem to be running out of steam as I think they thought many more from the locals would be supporting them and they are not---also some of the road blocks seem to be thinly manned and by unarmed types.

http://rusvesna.su/video

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting that Interfax carried this statement this evening about the attempted stopping of Ukrainian airborne troops by the eastern Ukraine local self defense types who evidently took a beating because the troops fought back.

April 15, 2014 19:54 Up to 11 people killed in Kramatorsk airfield battle - Rossiya 24


MOSCOW. April 15 (Interfax) - Between four and eleven people have been killed in a battle at the airport in Kramatorsk, a correspondent for the Rossiya 24 television channel said.

"Indeed, there are fatalities. Efforts are under way to clarify their number, which is between four and eleven people," the correspondent reported live on Tuesday.

As a result of clashes the Ukrainian troops opened fire against self-defense fighters who tried to stop paratroopers from landing at the airfield in Kramatorsk, he said.

[kaur]

Here is information that cossacks from "Crimean front" arrived to Slavyansk.

http://novoross.info/people/print:pa...emli-foto.html

http://www.mk.ru/politics/article/20...vaya-krov.html

[JMA]

Not a bad tactic to bring in the unarmed once the occupation is successful as it prevents the use of subsonic suppressed to take out any strutting armed thugs outside the building. Where a (armed) target offers itself it would need to be video'd to prove the target was armed at the time of the shot to counter the obvious Russia propaganda spin that will follow. Is Ukraine capable or under pressure from the US not to respond to the occupations?

kaur---went through the YouTube video---saw the fat guy with Cossack hat--but who were the small group of about 6-7 who unloaded from the truck and one was carrying the rocket launcher over his shoulder----they were better equipped and more professional.

Have you been listening to/watching the proRussian eastern Ukrainian videos being released on------just my intuition ---once they got into a number of the buildings the various groups seem to be running out of steam as I think they thought many more from the locals would be supporting them and they are not---also some of the road blocks seem to be thinly manned and by unarmed types.

http://rusvesna.su/video

[Firn]

So it seems that the Ukrainian leadership has at last decided to confront the military aggression with military means. It is a dangerous path, but what were the alternatives? Letting Russia taking over other regions unopposed?

Putin played va banque in Crimea and won, so far at limited economic costs, in that local conflict and he clearly decided to cast the dice again. Who knows what he expected, other easy gains? So far he has pushed the desperate opponent in using for the first time it's military. Will we see Russian troops invading with full force?

[OUTLAW 09]

Here is information that cossacks from "Crimean front" arrived to Slavyansk.

http://novoross.info/people/print:pa...emli-foto.html

http://www.mk.ru/politics/article/20...vaya-krov.html

kauer---like the videos and photos you are finding.

Reference the first link---the dude in the floppy campaign hat was also in the Crimea in a set of other Crimean videos. Same hat same guy.

[OUTLAW 09]

It seems when an quasi independent organization makes a finding after being on the ground in the Ukraine--ie proRussians are not having their human rights violated.

Moscow flips out as it does not fit the FSB I/O messaging.

From Interfax today:

04/15 20:30 MOSCOW HAS IMPRESSION REPORT OF UN HIGH COMMISSIONER'S OFFICE ON STATE OF HUMAN RIGHTS IN UKRAINE FORGED UNDER CONCLUSIONS SET IN ADVANCE - LUKASHEVICH


04/15 21:06 OHCHR's Ukraine report gives impression of being fabricated - Lukashevich