Yemen: all you want (2011-2015)

[AdamG]

Dual post.

A U.S. command and control center in Yemen, used to direct drone strikes against al Qaeda havens in the country, was the target of a massive terrorist attack in the country late last month.

The Sept. 30 attempted assault on the military base in Mukalla on the country's southeastern coast was initially seen as an attempt by al Qaeda's Yemen faction to establish new strongholds in the country.

But the terrorist group, known as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), now claims the attack was an attempt to take out the U.S. command node in Mukalla and hamper American drone strikes in the country.

Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill...#ixzz2hnq0xqry

[davidbfpo]

Yemen has not gone away, although no SWC posts this year so far.

Well there is ample reporting that this weekend the USA and the Yemen have launched drone strikes and SF at a number of militant / AQAP targets. At one point there was specualtion that the target was AQAP's leading IED expert.

Several links: 1) LWJ http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...#ixzz2zX3W8veO

2) Just Security http://justsecurity.org/2014/04/21/o...ise-questions/

3) Gulf News, included as it actually spoke to some locals http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/yemen/...emen-1.1322000

[davidbfpo]

A classic tale from the Yemen, a country that consistently confuses outsiders and now a convicted bomber, from the first, failed attack on US targets in 1992, is a senior security officer who says:

I’m now a colonel in the Interior Ministry and was appointed as an assistant to the director of security for Mukalla.

Ends with:

Over the past few years, the U.S. has refocused its attention on Yemen in a attempt to combat al-Qaeda, increasing aid and ramping up drone strikes. But at the same time elements of the Yemeni government appear to be playing a double game, welcoming U.S. aid with one hand and helping militants with the other.

Link:http://www.buzzfeed.com/shuaibalmosa...ihad-in-yemen?

[davidbfpo]

At first you'd think this was a standard situation in war-torn lands:

As the world’s attention was riveted on the lightening conquests of the Islamic State in Iraq, Yemen’s al-Huthi movement made an equally stunning but largely unnoticed military advance on Amran Governorate and captured the provincial capital, Amran, in July.

Ah, not so here, with my emphasis:

The fall of Amran is even more stunning in light of what appears to be complicity by President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi. Since January, al-Huthi fighters have been making steady progress on the ground, alternatively buying and coercing new tribal alliances, defeating military units, and strategically using the politics of the transitional period in Yemen. The al-Huthi movement was party to Yemen’s famous National Dialogue Conference and it is included in formal political discussions about the future of Yemen. Over the last six months, a pattern emerged: al-Huthi fighters would make incursions into new territory, President Hadi would send a delegation to negotiate a settlement, and the al-Huthi leadership would exploit the settlement to advance further its control of northern Yemen. President Hadi appears to be allowing the al-Huthi advances to hurt the Islah Party as part of a major reshuffling of the political landscape in Yemen.

Link:http://www.mei.edu/content/at/fall-a...ah-party-yemen

[davidbfpo]

A variety of commentators have wondered why President Obama referred to the 'success' of the Yemen and this Daily Beast article provides an update to events. It ends with:

The Yemen model appears to have limited value fighting extremists, and even less establishing democracy.

Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-a-wreck.html?

[davidbfpo]

I have watched recent events in the Yemen with a wary eye, then along comes a SME Gregory Johnson with this 'Yemen’s Bloody Weekend Leaves 100s Dead And Rebels On The Rise' and sub-titled The Houthi rebel movement is a growing power in troubled Yemen. Their rise is part of a feud that stretches back a decade, and the bloodshed is unlikely to end here:http://www.buzzfeed.com/gregorydjohn...he-ris#2669f0b

Nothing better explains the Yemen than this:

This weekend, Houthi fighters clashed with soldiers loyal to Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar, one of the country’s most powerful generals and the former head of the First Armored Division. Ahmar, who led most of the wars against the Houthis over the past decade, is a holdover from the old regime. In late 2012, the First Armored Division was officially disbanded and its headquarters declared a public park. Ahmar and his men largely ignored the order. This weekend the Houthis took the law into their own hands, overrunning the military camp. The general however seems to have escaped.

[CrowBat]

Nowadays it is largely forgotten that Zaidis were the state-building community that established Yemen as such: that back in the 1960s the British were hapily supporting their royalists (with help of Saudi money and Israel-provided arms, of course) against Egyptian troops deployed to support the (laicist) Republicans.

Instead, the West is following the Saudi dogma of Zaidis being some sort of Yemeni Hezbollah, trained and financed by Tehran, and not an autonomous group. Who cares then if Houthis feel sidelined, demand autonomy, approach to the Red Sea, participation in the government... If at all, Yemen is seen through the prism of 'War on al-Qaida' only.

Some recommended reading here would be Schmidt's 'Yemen: The Unknown War', and (one of latest to this topic) Duff's 'The War that Never Was'.

Added by Moderator

Schmidt's book was published in 1968:http://www.amazon.com/Yemen-war-Dana...he+Unknown+War

Duff's book was published in 2011:http://www.amazon.com/War-That-Never...that+Never+Was

[CrowBat]

BTW, newest rumour in KSA is that Gen al-Ahmar left the country and is about to get asyl in the UK.

The photo below should be showing a YAF Mi-17 helicopter that brought him to Jizzan, in KSA, earlier today.

[CrowBat]

Some recommended reading here would be Schmidt's 'Yemen: The Unknown War', and (one of latest to this topic) Duff's 'The War that Never Was'.

Added by Moderator

Schmidt's book was published in 1968:http://www.amazon.com/Yemen-war-Dana...he+Unknown+War

Duff's book was published in 2011:http://www.amazon.com/War-That-Never...that+Never+Was

Thanks David,

waiting for the start of US strikes on Syria and thus posting in rush.

BTW, additional details about Egyptian involvement in that war - including their early 'large scale' ground operations, but particularly involvement of their air force - can be found in the book Arab MiGs, Volume 1, co-authored by your very own.

[davidbfpo]

After a steady advance the Houthi clan have taken power in Sana'a and as this headline says 'Yemen's Capital Fell To A Rebel Group And The World Hardly Noticed':http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/1...?utm_hp_ref=tw

Somehow I expect nothing will change, Yemeni ways remain potent and confusing for the general outside observer.

Iona Craig, a resident reporter in country, commented:

Since their lightning takeover of the city, Houthi militias have attacked the adversaries of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh and political rivals of current President Abdrahbu Mansour Hadi. But the apparent ease of the Houthi victory reveals much more about the smoke and mirrors of Yemeni politics than it does about the militiamen's fighting prowess. Indeed, by allowing the Houthis free rein of the capital, Hadi has taken a gamble that could bring more violence as the backlash against the Houthi uprising gains strength.

What next then? I doubut anyone knows and the last people with effective influence are us!

[davidbfpo]

Yemen is the only country in the Arabian Peninsula that is signatory to the 1951 refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol. It currently hosts 246,000 refugees, including over 230,000 Somalis and smaller numbers of Ethiopians, Eritreans, Iraqis and Syrians.

In addition, there are more than 334,000 internally displaced Yemeni citizens who were either forced from their homes as a result of recent conflicts or living in longer-term displacement.

Link:http://www.unhcr.org.uk/news-and-vie...off-yemen.html

[davidbfpo]

A thoughtful article on hostage taking and negoitation by Iona Craig, one of the few Western journalists still in the Yemen. Note it was written before the latest raid by US SOF:https://www.beaconreader.com/iona-cr...me?ref=profile

Her overview:

The US raid to free hostages in Yemen on November 25, left a trail of questions for Washington in its wake. Not about tales of derring-do, but on the political motivations for the rescue attempt and the role kidnap victims, especially Americans, now play in the propaganda war with the Islamic State.

The BBC on the situation today:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-30358665

[davidbfpo]

A Yemeni reporter's story on the attack in Sanaa, on a line of young men seeking to join the police, with a bomb killing fifty and injuring a hundred:http://blog.haykal.sg/the-yemen/51-m...ayhem-in-sanaa

I cite one passage on what security means for the Yemeni people themselves:

There is one constant truth in Sanaa these last few years : the Yemeni government, the police, the army and the various militias who populate the Yemeni capital are too busy with their own fights to provide Yemeni citizens with any form of security. In Sanaa, each man has to be personally responsible to protect his home, family and children.

[davidbfpo]

A short guide and comment on the apparently relentless demise of the Yemeni state:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...ploding-yemen/

[davidbfpo]

As the Yemeni government goes through a difficult time, in Washington DC Michael Vickers, a DoD Under-Secretary, seems unperturbed as the Houthis appear to take greater power.

To be fair the political contortions, mainly followed on Twitter, are - well - Yemeni. The President resigns, his ostensible replacement is a place man for the former president; parliament refuses to accept the resignation and speculation is rife that the south will pursue a different path. Ah, the parliament was last elected in 2003. its term ended in 2009 and has been extended by them since then.

Back to Mr Vickers public statement; in summary:

Despite alarmist news reports, the Barack Obama administration appears to have adjusted to the rise of the Houthis in Yemen and is continuing attacks on al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

Link:http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/orig...#ixzz3Pa2g6WpC

[davidbfpo]

Gregory Johnsen, a non-residnet now SME, writes a column entitled: 'Yemen’s constant state of political crisis reached a new zenith on Thursday with the president’s resignation. But the worst may be yet to come:http://www.buzzfeed.com/gregorydjohn...men#.twEY7nbor

He ends with:

.....as more regions drift out of the orbit of Sanaa, AQAP will likely attempt to exploit the situation by seizing as much territory as it can. Indeed, that is what much of Yemen has become: a land grab for any group strong enough to hold what it claims.

[davidbfpo]

An article from a Yemen SME, who it appears is still in country which helps IMHO:https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-a...%27s-emergency

I had been wondering how the Huthis had reached Sanaa, without much fighting and the author's answer reflects the byzantine ways of the Yemen:

How did the Huthis rise from being a minority regional politico-military movement to taking complete control over the formal state in less than one year? Long suspected by most Yemenis, but ignored by the international community, and denied by both concerned parties, the alliance between the Huthis and Saleh has been the main factor behind their military success. The vast majority of the Huthis’ armed forces are military and security units loyal to Saleh who follow his orders. Moreover even senior Huthi leaders take orders from Saleh.

[davidbfpo]

A press release from Oxfam on the humanitarian situation:

More than half of Yemen’s population needs aid and a humanitarian crisis of extreme proportions is at risk of unfolding in the country if instability continues, Oxfam warns today.

• Throughout the country there are 16 million people in need of aid, meaning one in three people needing help in the entire Middle East is Yemeni.
• Ten million Yemenis do not have enough to eat, including 850,000 acutely malnourished children.
• Millions have no clean water and are unable to access basic healthcare services.

Unless the deepening crisis in Yemen is addressed soon it will be almost impossible to prevent this dangerous situation from becoming deadly, putting huge numbers of lives at risk.

It appears for depth there is an OCHA report with more details linked in.

Link:http://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pr...ons-lives-risk

[davidbfpo]

A map recommended via Twitter by a SME, it comes from the AEI Critical Threats Project:http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen

[davidbfpo]

A simple guide to the Houthi insurgency:http://www.buzzfeed.com/gregorydjohn...men#.tiboEADKr

It ends with:

The Yemen model that President Obama praised only a few months ago has collapsed. The state has fractured and no one is sure if it can be put back together again. A decade ago the Huthis were at war with the state and looked to be on the verge of extinction, today they’re in the presidential palace.