Do we think that
Neighbors are finally starting to wake up because they actually care, or is it more likely the've started to realize what type of problems the almost guaranteed insurgency in the future will cause within their own areas?
Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours
Cogitationis poenam nemo patitur
I would say that it is a combination of the two. Botswana and Zambia have been the most outspoken critics of the regime; they also stand to suffer should a real war start uo. South Africa and the ANC just can't seem to get past the African convention of standing against "foreign involvement" when there has been none worthy of the name. Interesting that Machel --now married to Mandela--has been a voice against Mugabe.Originally Posted by Ron Humphrey
David, what do you think?
Tom
Zimbabwe insider comments
Taken from a Zimbabwean email group I get:
News Monday 23: Mugs thugs are still rounding up people on their death list in Sunningdale, but army are restraining the chief thug in Mbare. The second sounds as if, after yesterday's violence, the Joint Operations Command may have decided that there has been enough disorder for them save face by stepping in to 'restore order'. The police still have a number of people who try to be professional and tha army are not the worst, so if they want to look good, suppressing their own non-uniformed elements, the youth militia and 'war veterans', may seem good enough. If martial law means suppressing all political parties, to be seen as restraining the admitted ZANY violence may look like a help to their image. That party, if it still is a party, has become a liability to the JOC. This unlikely to save their face, but it may seem like it to them and is the only option open to them if they hope to escape the ICC. Tsvangirai's standing down may go against his preference. Even though it was estimated that he had a majority for going on with the election, it was only a narrow one, and going into the election under these conditions would have required near-unanimity. Sunday's violence would have strengthened this argument. His withdrawal puts the ball back in the JOC's court. My guess at this moment is that they may declare martial law before Tsvangirai can announce his plan on Wednesday.
davidbfpo
There was an excellent profile in the Chicago Tribune of our native son Ambassador McGee a week ago, and one of the points repeatedly made by some interviewees from NGOs and the like was that "McGee [along with the US and UK diplomatic staffs] is doing what the African representatives need to be doing."
I wonder if pressure exerted by his fellow African leaders would have had more impact on Mugabe. Then again, once people start throwing "colonialism" around, African support for Western initiatives suddenly becomes scarce.
What is really painful about Mbeki's feet-dragging on this whole episode is that Mugabe's Zimbabwe is exactly what Mbeki's "African Renaissance" is supposed to be all about:
Mobilization against kleptocratic, undemocratic "elected" regimes? Check.
Rejection of an African legacy of poor governance and violation of human rights? Check.
Program of legitimate African economic regeneration? Check.
That Mbeki allowed himself to be intimidated by that "colonialism" bugaboo that Mugabe threw out to defend himself is really unfortunate. He had a chance to help "reclaim" Africa, as his writings have said, and he didn't do it.
Regards,
Matt
"Give a good leader very little and he will succeed. Give a mediocrity a great deal and he will fail." - General George C. Marshall
Silent Nelson Mandela
Tom,
I too have been puzzled at Nelson Mandela's silence and this weekend there was a comment on this within an article preceeding his visit to London, to mark his 90th birthday (Will try to locate article). The author emphasised Mandela had criticised Mugabe a few years ago, now Mbeki is the president he has the burden and he is a retired man.
I thought the article's comment weird. If Mandela felt strongly on a subject would he really remain silent? That is why I suspect Graca Machel, his wife, has been so public - it is a diplomatic fix.
The London based Zimbabwe Vigil is calling for protests at two venues in London, where Mandela is dining out and meeting VIPs. Assisting is Peter Tatchell, who tried a "citizens arrest" on Mugabe awhile ago when he visited Europe (Paris I recall).
Yes, if Mandela publically condemned Mugabe and ZANU-PF it would have an impact, within Zimbabwe, South African and beyond. Alas the "robber barons" in Zimbabwe show no sign of wobbling and losing power.
On my Zimbabwean emailing is a call for a boycott of the election issued by South Africa's trade unions (CSATU), Democratic Alliance (opposition party) and the communist party (SACP). Alongside a call upon Mbeki to do something more than talk.
I am not convinced the opposition in Zimbabwe will become an insurgency and so destabilise the region. More likely and all ready evident is the economic collapse and starvation.
davidbfpo
The West is draggin' her feet... again
Reading some of the recent press to include AMB McGee's Teleconference makes me conclude our system is stymied to the tune of 3 decades.
Britain is also to withdraw President Robert Mugabe's honorary knighthood.
Mr Mugabe is the first foreigner to be stripped of the award since Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in 1989, the day before his execution.AMBASSADOR MCGEE: Thank you, Tom. We’re pleased to be here today. The situation in Zimbabwe still remains fairly critical. The violence and the intimidation continue in both the urban and the rural areas. I think most people would probably be interested, though, in hearing the latest update that we have on Morgan Tsvangirai himself.
I just got off the phone with my colleague, the Dutch Ambassador, who told me that Morgan is still at his embassy. The Ambassador had met with the Permanent Secretary from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs here, who gave assurances that the Government of Zimbabwe would not try to raid the Dutch Embassy and that there was no threat to Morgan Tsvangirai’s person.
As a matter of fact, the Permanent Secretary said that Morgan Tsvangirai could leave the country if he so desired.
I think the Permanent Secretary forgot that the government confiscated Morgan’s passport when he returned from South Africa and has not returned it. So, Morgan is going to have a very difficult time trying to leave the country.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Ambassador McGee has done an admirable job in highlighting te situation and challenging the Mugabists (new word, I rather like it) as well as leading by example. But I don't quite get the almost cheerful air he has in describing the fact that the Dutch Embassy is still shelteringTsvangirai without fearing a government raid.
Not to wish harm on our Dutch brethren or Tsvangirai himself, I almost wish such a raid would take place. It should also be highlighted that Tsvangirai did not seek shelter with an African diplomatic mission. That would have been something to have the South African Embassy raided...
Stan, again, you are right. Lot's of clucking noises and not much else.
David, agree that an insurgency is unlikely after a Mugabist victory that seems imminent. Perhaps had the opposition stayed the course and won, the Mugabist would have kept their promises....
None of this however doing anything to help the country's dying (or dead)economy...
Tom
I would agree with you on the insurgency
I didn't mean to imply full up out and out war but more along the lines of quiet revolution, with possibly much larger implications.
Do we expect that those who have been willing to stand up and have been punished or had family, friends, etc punished to simply lay down and forget about it.
Rather I would agree on the starvation and as far as it seems the economy is already shot no recovery whatsoever.
With this where does one suppose any who choose to work towards change will base themselves as it would seem implausible that it be done effectively in country. Thus my original premise.
Somehow I don't see these "Mis-led youth" who have been keeping so busy recently are going to find themselves without reprocuss one things "settle" down. That would in turn lead towards the rest.
Just my concerns. I will choose to quote JCUSTIS here
I cry for that country.
Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours
Cogitationis poenam nemo patitur
Mandela says....
The BBC News are reporting Nelson Mandela has tonight made a comment, at a formal dinner, on Zimbabwe, albeit very short alongside criticism of the violence in South Africa. BCC headline is: Nelson Mandela criticises 'tragic failure of leadership' in Zimbabwe (no link yet even after 30mins).
Hardly a rousing call for an end to the "robber barons".
davidbfpo
Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-25-2008 at 09:37 PM.
The Government of South Africa's strangely odd, even indulgent behaviour towards the Government of Zimbabwe over the years is unsettling. Not only has it refrained from strong criticism, or often any criticism, at all, but has almost consistently gone out of its way to defend ZANU-PF and even to practically shift the blame for Zimbabwe's ills upon the outside world. Not to mention that there was that SA Government team sent a couple years ago to Zimbabwe to study the land-redistribution/farm-seizure process.
South Africa's own internal situation is poor, and deteriorating, and it might not take as much as one might prefer to think for SA to go the way of Zimbabwe, more or less. A rabble-rouser coming to power could expedite the process rather efficiently. The present SA Government is probably aware of this possible eventuality, and doubtless not very keen to go that way. But it seems so repulsed by the notion of breaking African unity and thus be "siding" with former Colonial powers and the like, that it prefers obstinant contrariness to dealing with reality - both within Zimbabwe, and increasingly within SA itself. Ten or twenty years from now, Zimbabwe may amount to another largely forgotten prequel to a "main event " within South Africa itself.
South Africa's quirky relationship has been, well, quirky even as far back as the Chimurenga, and both white governments had a love/hate relationship over several issues.
It's interesting to see that although the governments have changed, the arm's-reach sentiment remains to some degree. Perhaps a political scientist or historian could have foreseen this relationship.
It would be neat to have JRT Wood drop by and give us his analysis.
http://www.thezimbabwetimes.com/
MASVINGO - A senior officer serving with the Zimbabwe National Army Major General Engelbert Rugeje yesterday said soldiers will be out in full force
on Friday to herd voters to the polling stations countrywide and to ensure
that they vote for the single candidate, President Robert Mugabe.
Addressing people who were force-marched to Mucheke Stadium by members of the army and Zanu-PF militia Rugeje said soldiers will sweep through the
countryside on Friday to ensure that people go to the polling stations "to
vote for Mugabe. The army will also supply election observers.
"We are soldiers," Rugeje said. "We do not ask for things; we force things.
"On Friday we are going to make sure that you go and vote, not for any
person of your choice, but for President Mugabe. I am not asking you to do
so but we will force you to go and vote.
"As soldiers we enjoy war."
During the Rhodesian war it was normal for the "Freedom Fighters" to herd villagers to "Pungwes" - political gatherings enforcing pro ZanuPf chanting, shoot the chiefs son or daughter to make a point, demand the services of the village womenr (age not a problem) and of course insist on free beer. At election time 1980 they said plainly if they did not win, the war continues. Nothing ever seems to change, deliberate starvation, rape and murder are all these thugs know.
I.R
A different slant
From a Zimbabwean emailing, two articles by Mary Ndlovu, a human rights activist, both are too long to bring here, so try the links:
http://www.pambazuka.org/en/ current scene and http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/comment/43971 Oct '07
davidbfpo
Blood Brothers
http://zimbabwemetro.com/wordpress/w...gabepapers.pdf
Makes facinating reading, if genuine.
I.R
Blood brothers?
A fascinating, if long read. An odd mixture of Marxist and Third World ideology with some harsh realism about politics, economics etc. Clearly ZANU-PF did not accept the advice and became a regime of robbery, not revolution. Perhaps Jacob Xuma and the SACP can comment?
davidbfpo
War Veteran votes
Quite telling passage:
But even in Mbare, some voters defied Zanu-PF's intimidation. At Nharira primary school, in a more affluent part of the suburb, turnout was low as voters stayed away, Bernard Mashonganyika, 47, voted MDC, as he has done in every election since they were formed. A real war veteran, unlike the so-called ones who make up Mr Mugabe's shock troops, he said he was shot in the leg during the struggle for independence. "You know what?" he said. "These thieves, when we went to war they were not there. We only knew about Mugabe in 1978. But right now he is behaving as if he was the one holding the AK [47 assault rifle]."
From: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-Zimbabwe.html
davidbfpo
Divisions revealed?
From: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-MDC-says.html
Mr Biti (MDC Deputy Leader) was detained for 14 days and charged with treason. He endured 14 hours of interrogation, by police officers and the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO). These sessions revealed deep divsions within the regime.
Mr Biti's interrogators wanted to know about his talks in South Africa with two members of Mr Mugabe's cabinet: Patrick Chinamasa, the justice minister, and Nicholas Goche, the labour minister.
"It was obvious they were being used by one faction of Zanu-PF. One part is negotiating, the other doesn't know what is happening," said Mr Biti. "It was quite clear from some of the questions that they asked about particular aspects of the SADC [Southern African Development Community] negotiations that they felt Chinamasa and Goche had been outplayed at the SADC table."
Mmmm and the effect of this was? Nothing yet.
davidbfpo
For the nonce. However, there was an interesting quote in a CBC article yesterday.
A meeting of African foreign ministers in Egypt is considering what steps the continent's nations can take to press for change in Zimbabwe.
"I don't think we are going to accept the result but we are still discussing," a minister told Reuters, asking not to be identified.
Marc
Sic Bisquitus Disintegrat...
Marc W.D. Tyrrell, Ph.D.
Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies,
Senior Research Fellow,
The Canadian Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies, NPSIA
Carleton University
http://marctyrrell.com/
African Union: nothing likely
From the BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7479320.stm
Kenyan Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula has said sanctions against Zimbabwe are unlikely to work, and that Mr Mugabe and the opposition should instead be encouraged to talk. He was speaking at a meeting of African Union foreign ministers in the Egyptian town of Sharm el-Sheik, before a full meeting of heads of state on Monday which Mr Mugabe is expected to attend. Mr Wetangula, whose own country recently went through a period of political violence before a power-sharing deal was brokered, told reporters: "History has shown us that they (sanctions) don't work because the leadership just dig in and dig in and feel persecuted. "I think we need to engage Zimbabwe. The route of sanctions may not be the helpful one... the first and most important thing is for the people of Zimbabwe and their leadership to sit down and talk to each other, instead of talking at each other."
Sometime ago I suggested the only people who will effect change are the people of Zimbabwe, or some of Mugabe's followers decide time to change. Nothing I have seen, which is all diplomatic froth, indicates different.
davidbfpo
No more banknotes
From a Zimbabwean emailing:
Munich, July 1, 2008 - The Management Board of Giesecke & Devrient GmbH, Munich, today decided to cease delivering banknote paper to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe with immediate effect. The company has taken this step in response to an official request from the German government and calls for international sanctions by the European Union and United Nations. "Our decision is a reaction to the political tension in Zimbabwe, which is mounting significantly rather than easing as expected, and takes account of the critical evaluation by the international community, German government and general public," explains Dr. Karsten Ottenberg, Chairman of the Management Board and CEO of Giesecke & Devrient GmbH. In delivering banknotes and banknote paper, Giesecke & Devrient is subject to strict rules defined by the World Bank. The company continues to rely on the political and moral assessment provided by international trade regulators.
davidbfpo
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