Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[TheCurmudgeon]

Seems like the Russians are getting what David Maxwell on the blog side calls UW and political warfare.

Title taken from today’s' NYTs

Military Analysis Russia Displays a New Military Prowess in Ukraine’s East

By MICHAEL R. GORDON

Russian forces skillfully employed 21st-century tactics that combined cyberwarfare, an energetic information campaign and the use of highly trained special operation troops in its annexation of Crimea.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/22/wo...etType=nyt_now

They are, and I applaud their use of UW where appropriate, but I think the article makes a number of mistakes imputing Putin's reasoning based on our reaction.

For its intervention in Crimea, the Russians used a so-called snap military exercise to distract attention and hide their preparations.

Was that really a faint, or was it the back-up plan in case additional assistance was required?

While the Kremlin retains the option of mounting a large-scale intervention in eastern Ukraine, the immediate purposes of the air and ground forces massed near Ukraine appears to be to deter the Ukrainian military from cracking down in the east and to dissuade the United States from providing substantial military support.

I believe that is imputing motivation based on the results.

We tend to see what we think is there rather than what is there.

My second point is that, while the UW strategy used was effective, it has limited utility outside of this situation. It would not work in locations without a substantial sympathetic population. The artilce both makes that point and avoids it.

Admiral Stavridis agreed that Russia’s strategy would be most effective when employed against a nation with a large number of sympathizers. But he said that Russia’s deft use of cyberwarfare, special forces and conventional troops was a development that NATO needed to study and factor into its planning.

“In all of those areas they have raised their game, and they have integrated them quite capably,” he said. “And I think that has utility no matter where you are operating in the world.”

UW is a tactic that requires some depth of knowledge about the human domain. So, without an accurate assessment of the sentiment of the local population, something we are not good at, UW should probably not be seen as a magic bullet. That said, it is a very powerful tactic in the right situation.

[Dayuhan]

My second point is that, while the UW strategy used was effective, it has limited utility outside of this situation. It would not work in locations without a substantial sympathetic population. The artilce both makes that point and avoids it.

Is it not also the case that the revolution in the Ukraine provided an exceptional opportunity to put a plan like this into operation? I have no doubt that the Russians have long considered the possibility of agitating ethnic Russians in neighboring countries as an excuse for intervention; that's too obvious a ploy to overlook... but the general breakdown in order and government capability certainly provided an exceptional opportunity to move.

It struck me the other day that if the Ukrainian government believes that a substantial majority in the east wants to remain part of the Ukraine, wouldn't it make sense to preempt the Russians by having their own referendum, with international observers (including Russians) and a real effort to assure that only Ukrainian citizens vote? Obviously the would have to be confidence in the outcome, but if you have the confidence, it could be a useful proactive step.

[TheCurmudgeon]

It struck me the other day that if the Ukrainian government believes that a substantial majority in the east wants to remain part of the Ukraine, wouldn't it make sense to preempt the Russians by having their own referendum, with international observers (including Russians) and a real effort to assure that only Ukrainian citizens vote? Obviously the would have to be confidence in the outcome, but if you have the confidence, it could be a useful proactive step.

It would, which makes me feel that they are not confident of the outcome.

The only way this could work is with a third party (i.e. UN) presence to ensure that the vote is fair (unlike the vote in the Crimea). Still, it is the kind of thing that could buy time and cool down passions … at least until the votes are counted and someone loses.