Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[JMA]

It would certainly be unwise (though not atypical) to issue warnings or declare "red lines" in a situation where the US is clearly not prepared to intervene.

Absolutely.

One qould have thought Obama would have learned his lesson from Syria (about red-lines) but it seems he is not smart enough.

If you actually read the article, though, it seems mostly a case of bad headline writing: the National Security Adviser's statement is neither warning nor threat, and should not have been described as such.

Can't imagine what anyone would want or expect the US to do about it in any event.

You are applying your normal pathetic spin - you obviously can't help yourself.

Obviously Obama is not warning of the possible use of force. Only that "there will be costs".

Do you think Putin is quaking in his boots over this? Perhaps hysterical laughter?

[Firn]

The world is a strange place, facts are indeed stranger then fiction. Haartez reports of several ex-IDF members who have joined the protesters on Maidan, supporting the neo-nazi, fascist bandits:

I don’t belong [to Svoboda], but I take orders from their team. They know I’m Israeli, Jewish and an ex-IDF soldier. They call me ‘brother,’” he said. “What they’re saying about Svoboda is exaggerated, I know this for a fact. I don’t like them because they’re inconsistent, not because of [any] anti-Semitism issue.”

The commanding position of Svoboda in the revolution is no secret, according to Ariel Cohen, a senior research fellow at the Washington D.C.-based Heritage Foundation think tank.

“The driving force among the so-called white sector in the Maidan are the nationalists, who went against the SWAT teams and snipers who were shooting at them,” Cohen told JTA.

Still, many Jews supported the revolution and actively participated in it.

You really could not make that up, I would have laughed a guy coming up with such a story out of the room. The famous jewish French philospher came actually to a similar conclusion in his piece: I believe into the honour of the Ukraine.

Considering our discussion about Syria is Mr. Delta along with his comrades now also a foreign fighter?

P.S: Youtube shows a longer version of the Crimean parliament's occupation by Russian SF forces. Note the snow-camo on some rifles, no surprise if we consider that the close-by winter olympic games of Sotchi had seen a high concentration of special and security forces which were no doubt given priority in terms of gear.

[Dayuhan]

One qould have thought Obama would have learned his lesson from Syria (about red-lines) but it seems he is not smart enough.

He may have learned a little, as there's no specific red line or "we will not tolerate" statement here.

Obviously Obama is not warning of the possible use of force. Only that "there will be costs".

It doesn't look like a warning at all, just a generalized statement of disapproval, much like those the Russians and Chinese issue every time the US is shaping up to intervene somewhere. Those aren't meant or expected to change anyone's course of action, just to declare a position.

Do you think Putin is quaking in his boots over this? Perhaps hysterical laughter?

Of course he's not quaking in his boots, any more than Bush was when the Russians and Chinese disapproved of intervention in Iraq or Obama was when the Russians and Chinese disapproved of intervention in Libya. Statements like that aren't meant to scare anyone, and nobody would expect them to scare anyone.

[Firn]

My last post before I'm off:

The Washington Post has an interesting article on how the Russian gas weapon has become much blunter compared to 2009.

As clunky Soviet-era factories and mines have become more efficient or gone out of business, Ukraine’s domestic gas consumption has dropped nearly 40 percent over the past five years, cutting its imports from Russia in half, according to a report by Sberbank Investment Research.

Domestic consumption might drop further if Ukraine trims the generous subsidies it gives households using natural gas, although so few households are paying their bills that it might not matter. “People will go from not paying the lower price to not paying the higher price,” said Thane Gustafson, senior director of Russian energy for the consulting firm IHS CERA.

...

“Ukraine has reduced its consumption of Russian gas, which puts them in a less vulnerable situation. Also the hardest part of winter is over. And there is a fair amount [of gas] in storage,” said a senior Obama administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. “Ukraine is obviously still in a precarious situation,” he added, “though very different from what it was in 2009.”

If indirect means do no longer cut it due to changed circumstances and one has to pull off a local 'counter-revolution' direct military force might become necessary in the eyes of a certain leader. Of course the Russian invasion is a peaceful affair and only an aggressive Ukrainian defense of it's territory could spark a war.

Some of the Russian news and moves remind me of a fine bon mot of good old Clausewitz:

“The invader* is always a lover of peace; he would prefer to take over our country unopposed.”

*In the original conquerer, it refers to the way Napoleon justified the invasion of Prussia and argued that he had wanted to keep the peace - after he provoked Prussia in everyway possible. It seems that Lenin, a avid reader of CvC, valued this bon mot highly. See the Wiki for the historical context.

Another cause was Napoleon's formation in July 1806 of the Confederation of the Rhine out of the various German states which constituted the Rhineland and other parts of western Germany. A virtual satellite of the French Empire with Napoleon as its "Protector", the Confederation was intended to act as a buffer state from any future aggressions from Austria, Russia or Prussia against France (a policy that was an heir of the French revolutionary doctrine of maintaining France's "natural frontiers"). The formation of the Confederation was the final nail in the coffin of the moribund Holy Roman Empire and subsequently its last Habsburg emperor, Francis II, changed his title to simply Francis I, Emperor of Austria. Napoleon consolidated the various smaller states of the former Holy Roman Empire which had allied with France into larger electorates, duchies and kingdoms to make the governance of non-Prussian and Austrian Germany more efficient. He also elevated the electors of the two largest Confederation states, his allies Württemberg and Bavaria, to the status of kings. The Confederation was above all a military alliance: in return for continued French protection, member states were compelled to supply France with large numbers of their own military personnel (mainly to serve as auxiliaries to the Grande Armée), as well as contribute much of the resources needed to support the French armies still occupying western and southern Germany. Understandably, Prussia was indignant at this increasing French meddling in the affairs of German homogeneity (without its involvement or even consultation) and viewed it as a threat. Napoleon had previously attempted to emolliate Prussian anxieties by assuring Prussia he was not adverse to its heading a North German Confederation, but his duplicity regarding Hanover dashed this. A final spark leading to war was the summary arrest and execution of German nationalist Johann Philipp Palm in August 1806 for publishing a pamphlet which strongly attacked Napoleon and the conduct of his army occupying Germany. After giving Napoleon an ultimatum on 1 October 1806, Prussia (supported by Saxony) finally decided to contend militarily with the French Emperor.

[JMA]

He may have learned a little, as there's no specific red line or "we will not tolerate" statement here.

Look, I appreciate you are lonely out there in the boonies but I am not well disposed to entertain you now it looks as if CrowBat has put you in your place in the syrian thread.

The 'red-line' here is:

"The United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine."

That line has been crossed so now we wait to see what these costs will be.

It doesn't look like a warning at all, just a generalized statement of disapproval, much like those the Russians and Chinese issue every time the US is shaping up to intervene somewhere. Those aren't meant or expected to change anyone's course of action, just to declare a position.

Yes, in this case the message to Russia - and the rest of the world - is that whatever the Russians do the US will do nothing.

Of course he's not quaking in his boots, any more than Bush was when the Russians and Chinese disapproved of intervention in Iraq or Obama was when the Russians and Chinese disapproved of intervention in Libya. Statements like that aren't meant to scare anyone, and nobody would expect them to scare anyone.

OK now you are an expert on international affairs.

Think what message it sends to the rest of the world ...

... OK enough ... go find someone else to play with.

[Firn]

A couple of posts ago I asked if we will see a heavy brigade rolling out of Sevastopol:



Not exactly MBT nor seemingly a brigade yet but another box ticked off in the old spiel, posted 40 min. ago.

I also wondered when finally Mr. Putin would 'cave in' to the big pressure inside Russia and from the Crimea and break his 'inaction'. Now at last he does something, after his unruly troops have spontaneously occupied most of the Crimea:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked the upper house of parliament to approve sending armed forces to Ukraine’s Crimea region, the Kremlin said in a statement on Saturday.

“In connection with the extraordinary situation in Ukraine, the threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation, our compatriots, and the personnel of the armed forces of the Russian Federation on Ukrainian territory (in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) ... I submit a proposal on using the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine until the normalisation of the socio-political situation in the that country,” the statement said.

How surprising

Since yesterday night I have become convinced that it is a complete Russian invasion so far limited to the Crimea. Once you cut through the fog of war with that view the Russian actions today were pretty predictable unless a strong reaction happened from the attacked nation.

P.S: It is also not unexpected that some Ukrainian would come up with such a picture:



Just protecting the people abroad which happen to speak your language and your culture and finished perhaps unjustly within the borders of another nation. It is no surprise that they also call for you help, rightly or not and establish self-defense forces...

[carl]

Russia already has insurgencies in its south that it can't handle. Now it may grab a chunk of the Ukraine possibly giving itself another insurgency to deal with since the Ukrainians have a history of that kind of thing. This action may not be good for Russia in the long run no matter how much fun it is for Vlad now.

[Firn]

Fresh news.

The upper house of the Russian parliament unanimously approved President Putin’s request to use armed forces in defence of Russians and Russian interests, anywhere in the territory of Ukraine.

So Russia reserves itself the right to invade other parts of it's sovereign neighbour. It may or may not, of course. Maybe there still has to be an discussion in Moskva where and when the fascist bandits should try to attack next. Brave Russiaphile self-defense forces will of course be waiting for them.

So the dear Vladimir has decided to cut very deeply indeed into the Russian flesh or better the long-term interests of the Russian nation. I bet most of the Ukraine will feel profound love for the nation which calls them 'little brother' and that the whole of Europe will now convinced of the peace-loving nature of the current leadership. I would love to know what the big Western leaders think now after they had all those pleasant conversations on the phone with Vladimirovic...

[TheCurmudgeon]

Those closer to the situation are also posturing,

Paris: Foreign ministers of France, Germany, and Poland -- currently leading an European mediation in Ukraine -- voiced concern Friday over the worsening security situation in the country, urging for unity to complete a political transition.

"We are deeply concerned with the tensions in Crimea," Xinhua quoted top French diplomat Laurent Fabius as saying. “Everything must be done to decrease the tension in the eastern region and promote peaceful discussions among relevant parties.”

In a joint statement with German and Polish counterparts Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Radoslaw Sikorski, Fabius reaffirmed "support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country", urging "all parties in Ukraine to refrain from actions that could challenge this".

[Firn]

Spot the difference...

Saying sorry on their knees on Maidan to the pro-western Ukrainians:



Saying sorry on their knees in Kharkiv to pro-Russians activists:





A logical consequence of the Russian invasion:

Vitali Klitschko, the former boxer now contending to be Ukraine's next president, has urged parliament to mobilise the army, AFP news agency reports. "Parliament must ask the army's commander-in-chief to declare national mobilisation after the start of Russian aggression against Ukraine," he said in a statement. He also asked for the UN Security Council to gather urgently for talks on the crisis.

So far the Ukrainian forces let the Russians walked into their country unopposed. Many in Kviev will ask themselves how far Mr.Putin will go to achieve his political goals by military goals. Are some of the Eastern regions next if they just stand idle by? Maybe even more? What do you have defensive forces if the are not at least making some effort to make it a bit more difficult to take over parts of your country...

[TheCurmudgeon]

Even if the US wanted to intervene, how long would it take us to unilaterally mount a credible heavy force to react?

[JMA]

I would love to know what the big Western leaders think now after they had all those pleasant conversations on the phone with Vladimirovic...

They realise just how impotent they really are.

If Assad doesn't listen to them why should Russia?

[Firn]

I generally dislike the impulse of peope to compare a current situation with a far more stark past, but I could not resist to take a quick look at the Wiki:

Sudeten German pro-Nazi leader Konrad Henlein offered the Sudeten German Party (SdP) as the agent for Hitler's campaign. Henlein met with Hitler in Berlin on 28 March 1938, where he was instructed to raise demands unacceptable to the Czechoslovak government led by president Edvard Beneš. On 24 April, the SdP issued the Karlsbader Programm, demanding autonomy for the Sudetenland and the freedom to profess Nazi ideology. If Henlein's demands were granted, the Sudetenland would then be able to align itself with Nazi Germany.

"I am asking neither that Germany be allowed to oppress three and a half million Frenchmen, nor am I asking that three and a half million Englishmen be placed at our mercy. Rather I am simply demanding that the oppression of three and a half million Germans in Czechoslovakia cease and that the inalienable right to self-determination take its place." - Adolf Hitler's speech at the NSDAP Congress 1938

There are certainly some differences but also quite some similarities...

So now I understand even more why some Polish? guy decided to take this not so original take on Mr. Putin:



Perhaps it was just retweeted by an Ukrainian.

@JMA: I think Putin would have been wise to show restraint. Yes he achieved a strategic surprise by preparing and executing an invasion while he fooled the Western powers. Yes he occupied the Crimea and right now there is very little the Western powers or the Ukraine can do against it. Yes he will be pretty satisfied with him and perhaps be rather smug. But there will be a steep price to payed by the Russian people, hopefully and so far likely not in blood. Russia might boast itself for the vast natural ressources but it's economy is only kept afloat by the money payed mostly by Europeans for it. And increasingly Europe is moving away from Russian imports. There is little doubt that Russia depends economically more on Europe then the other way around.

In any case the words of some Western politicians sound now indeed naive and perhaps even stupid, and Putins words have no worth at all.

[Dayuhan]

Look, I appreciate you are lonely out there in the boonies but I am not well disposed to entertain you now it looks as if CrowBat has put you in your place in the syrian thread.

Last I looked he'd stopped dreaming about pipelines and US interests and gone back to reporting events, which seems a step in a reasonable direction.

The 'red-line' here is:

"The United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine."

Not much of a red line there. Of course intervention will always have costs, but they will probably not be imposed by the US or Europe.

Yes, in this case the message to Russia - and the rest of the world - is that whatever the Russians do the US will do nothing.

The world already knew that, just as the world knew that Russian and Chinese denunciation of American interventions would not go beyond words.

Think what message it sends to the rest of the world ...

Nothing they didn't already know.

[Firn]

[URL="http://www.torontosun.com/2014/03/01/putin-proposes-use-of-russian-armed-forces-in-ukraine"An article[/URL] to finish off my day. An interesting one, to say the least. History was certainly made today.

This is probably the most dangerous situation in Europe since the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968," said a Western official on condition of anonymity. "Realistically, we have to assume the Crimea is in Russian hands. The challenge now is to deter Russia from taking over the Russian-speaking east of Ukraine."

The next bit is interesting, the part about the movie seems to strange.

This is probably the most dangerous situation in Europe since the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968," said a Western official on condition of anonymity. "Realistically, we have to assume the Crimea is in Russian hands. The challenge now is to deter Russia from taking over the Russian-speaking east of Ukraine."

WAR HAS ARRIVED

On Kiev's central Independence Square, where protesters camped out for months against Yanukovich, a World War Two film about Crimea was being shown on a giant screen, when Yuri Lutsenko, a former interior minister, interrupted it to announce Putin's decree. "War has arrived," Lutsenko said.

Hundreds of Ukrainians descended on the square chanting "Glory to the heroes. Death to the occupiers."

Grim reading about the WWII fights in the Crimea, which contained perhaps one of the most brilliant victories over the odds in the last 100 years. Didn't know much about that.

Von Manstein had five infantry divisions, one Panzer Division (22nd Panzer Division), and two and a half Romanian Divisions against 19 Soviet divisions and four armoured brigades at Kerch. He committed his units in the south against the 44th Army. The 902nd Assault Boat Command of the 436th Regiment, 132nd German Infantry Division, landed behind the Soviet lines and helped unbuckle the Soviet second lines. The artillery bombardment lasted only 10 minutes, and within three and a half hours of the assault being launched, the 44th Army collapsed. On the first day, XXX Corps, attacking with the 28th, 50th and 132nd Divisions had broken through in the south. At a cost of 104 killed and 284 wounded, they captured 4,514 Soviet soldiers. Kozlov did not appreciate the significance of the German breakthrough and failed to release reserves for a counter-attack. On 9 May, von Manstein committed the 22nd Panzer Division, which swung north and trapped the 51st Army against the Sea of Azov. Soviet morale and organisation collapsed, and a stampede to the rear areas began. Once this happened, the eight divisions of the 51st Army surrendered releasing XXX Corps to pursue the fragments of retreating Soviet forces to Marfovka, barely eight miles from Kerch.[12]

Aftermath

The speed of the advance was rapid. The 132nd Infantry Division overran several airfields, capturing 30 Soviet aircraft on the ground. On 10 May, Fliegerkorps VIII launched KG 55's He 111s against the Soviet forces. The large and slow He 111s made easy targets for ground fire, and eight were lost. However, the anti-personnel bombs (SD-2) were devastating to Soviet infantry. German bombers also attacked shipping evacuating personnel from Kerch. The 1,048 long tons (1,065 t) Chernomorets was sunk the same day.[13] By this time, the air battle was won by the Luftwaffe. Despite the withdrawal of some Geschwader to support the German 6th Army at the Second Battle of Kharkov, the Luftwaffe had destroyed Soviet aerial opposition and enabled the German Army to make deep penetrations, capturing 29,000 Soviet men, 220 guns and around 170 tanks.[14]

In 12 days, the VVS Crimean Front had lost 417 aircraft. The Luftwaffe assisted the final defeat of Soviet ground forces on 20 May, when Kerch finally fell. Some 116,045 Soviet soldiers were evacuated by sea. However, 162,282 were left behind, killed or captured. The Germans claimed to have taken 170,000 prisoners, but this number included a large number of civilians.[15] German casualties amounted to only 3,397 casualties in XXX and XLII Corps, including 600 dead. They expended 6,230 short tons (5,650 t) of ammunition, losing nine artillery pieces, three assault guns and eight tanks. In exchange, von Manstein had destroyed three Soviet armies. Although forced to return some Luftwaffe units and the 22nd Panzer Division for Operation Blue, he could now concentrate his forces for an attack on Sevastopol.[12]

[JMA]

Last I looked he'd stopped dreaming about pipelines and US interests and gone back to reporting events, which seems a step in a reasonable direction.

Not much of a red line there. Of course intervention will always have costs, but they will probably not be imposed by the US or Europe.

The world already knew that, just as the world knew that Russian and Chinese denunciation of American interventions would not go beyond words.

Nothing they didn't already know.

OK so you think you know it all... so run along now and play with someone else... there's a good boy.