Chad (merged thread)

[davidbfpo]

Far too early to expect any good analysis, especially as very few reporters likely to be on the ground, excluding French speakers.

If the civil war remains a new high level - what will the French reaction be? Limited to protection of French and other nationals? Secondly the EU intervention, planned to be based in Eastern Chad on the Darfur border, will disappear, far too dangerous for EU members, let alone logistics. With a knock-on effect on the Darfur intervention (EU, AU & UN). Wily Sudanese win again.

davidbfpo

[wm]

Far too early to expect any good analysis, especially as very few reporters likely to be on the ground, excluding French speakers.

If the civil war remains a new high level - what will the French reaction be? Limited to protection of French and other nationals? Secondly the EU intervention, planned to be based in Eastern Chad on the Darfur border, will disappear, far too dangerous for EU members, let alone logistics. With a knock-on effect on the Darfur intervention (EU, AU & UN). Wily Sudanese win again.

davidbfpo

Interesting that new sources are now hinting that Libya is brokering talks. Reminds me of early 80's incursion in Chad by the good Colonel Q. Perhaps he is at it again, only this time trying a sham diplomatic effort after using "Sudanese" forces as his shills so that he can walk into Chad as an occupying peacemaker. Should that start to materialize, I wonder what may come out of the Elysee Palace. I suspect it may be be something other than Sarko and Carla whispering sweet nothings to each other.

[Uboat509]

Far too early to expect any good analysis, especially as very few reporters likely to be on the ground, excluding French speakers.

If the civil war remains a new high level - what will the French reaction be? Limited to protection of French and other nationals? Secondly the EU intervention, planned to be based in Eastern Chad on the Darfur border, will disappear, far too dangerous for EU members, let alone logistics. With a knock-on effect on the Darfur intervention (EU, AU & UN). Wily Sudanese win again.

davidbfpo

France probably doesn't care if Deby gets the boot and in fact may welcome it given Deby's ham-handed attempts at extorting the west over mineral resources. France will, however, do whatever they think is necessary to protect their mineral interests in the country. While there is almost certainly a radical Islamic facet to the current rebellion but it is not a dominate one. In all likelyhood France, and any other foreign powers who have interests in Chad are calculating whether or not they can do business with the rebels if they win. I would not even be suprised if there were some low level exploritory talks going on with the rebels, though I wouldn't bet the house on it.

I doubt that this will have much effect on the horn but whenever this happens it creates huge headaches for Niger and Gabon.

SFC W

[Stan]

In this morning video, France’s official position is fairly neutral, but still siding with President Idriss Deby. That is Deby was free and fairly elected with European monitoring bodies. Several of the article bleeds indicate that the rebels feel the French are the enemy – assisting the Chadian government from their Mirages. More interesting was the Chadian MOIs most recent version…we sent the Sudanese mercenaries more than 700 clicks out of town after being assisted by Sudanese helicopters and Antonov aircraft.

All Africa has a good article with a bit of history for those late in the game.

The closest the rebels had previously come to seizing control of the capital and the country was in April 2006. One month before presidential elections...That attack failed in part because the rebels, most apparently unfamiliar with N'djamena's unnamed streets and lack of sign posts, lost their way when they reached the city centre and attacked the empty National Assembly building

Deby - survivor?

Chad's President Idriss Deby is no stranger to fighting for survival...A French-trained helicopter pilot and former colonel in Chad's army, in 1989 Deby formed his own rebel movement in Sudan, with the backing of Khartoum.

Said by analysts to be a master strategist, in 1990 he swept back into Chad and seized control of the vast, semi-desert country with barely a shot fired.

Looks like Libreville will soon be enjoying an otherwise off-season boost in Expat and Official visitors (err, refugees)

[Jedburgh]

ISN Security Watch, 4 Feb 08: Chad, Sudan, and a Risky Western Game

....At stake is Chad's oil, which came on stream in 2003, granting Deby lavish revenues to fund his counterinsurgency. Deby has manipulated Chad's constitution to allow him a third term as president, and his government is notably corrupt, abrogating a World Bank-led scheme to have oil revenues spent on health, education and invested for the future.

Two of the main rebel factions are headed by former Deby apparatchiks and family members, who doubtless have designs on the oil largesse. As does the NCPs patron in Beijing, which has largely stood by Khartoum throughout the Darfur catastrophe, despite the bad publicity in the run-up to this years' Olympic Games.

With south Sudan likely to secede in 2011 and take with it much of Sudan's oil - though north-south borders have not been decided, as the NCP seeks the best line possible - new oil sources via a client regime in Chad would be welcomed in Beijing, as a sanction-covered Sudan is out of bounds for western petroleum investment. South Sudan would not be out of bounds, however, and Beijing would have to contend with western oil company rivals in Juba.

Chad provides an alternative, and Deby himself has sought to curry Chinese favor by switching diplomatic allegiance from Taipei, which in hindsight looks like a pre-emptive move to show the Chinese that they did not need to depose him to access Chad's oil.....

[JJackson]

Jedburg thanks for that link. This the best analysis of the current situation I have seen. It seems (well to me anyway) balanced in that it shows none of the players are really in a position to adopt the moral high ground and covers the major factors governing the murky sets of allegiances. Obviously things have moved on a bit, both on the ground and politically, as the security council have effectively given the nod to France to give more support to Deby - if they want to. Although this may have the short term effect of getting EUFOR in country I dread to think what effect it may have for their security in the longer term.


France faces tough choices over Chad
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7227290.stm

[tequila]

Alex de Waal's blog: Making Sense of Chad

Last weekend’s battle in the Chadian capital N’djamena came as no surprise. For the last two years, the Sudan government has been trying to overthrow the Chadian president, Idriss Deby, using Chadian rebels as proxy forces. The three armed groups involved in the latest attack were all extensively armed by Sudanese Security, which has the clear intent of cutting off the support that Deby is giving to Darfurian rebels, especially the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), which has recently been on the offensive in Darfur. The timing is no surprise either. In the next few weeks, a European Union protection force (EUFOR) was due to deploy to eastern Chad and north-eastern Central African Republic. While EUFOR’s mandate (given by the UN Security Council) is for impartial civilian protection, it is a substantially French initiative, and seen by all in the region as a military protection for Deby. Khartoum and the rebels wanted to strike first.

The Chadian civil war is often described as a “spillover” from Darfur. That is a simplification. Darfur’s war actually began as a spillover from Chad more than twenty years ago and the two conflicts have been entangled ever since. Many of the Arab militia fighting in Darfur are of Chadian origin, and many of the rebels similarly served in the Chadian army or militia ...

Excellent post worth reading in full, as is anything de Waal writes about Darfur and the Horn.