Terrorists, Insurgents & WMD? Intent & Capability

[davidbfpo]

Bill Moore suggested a new thread on how terrorists/militias/insurgents use and intend to use WMD. Oddly SWC has not debated this (see 1st post for historical links).

He suspects we're at the start of a trend that will increase exponentially as tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) are further refined.

This post opens the thread, but two other posts will be moved from the 'out Of Mosul' thread, where Bill & I posted on this theme, so it will become the third post.

[davidbfpo]

A short article from an Israeli insititute, which relies on Kurdish information, alleges ISIS has used CW. It starts with:

Prior to the current campaign, the most serious (but unsuccessful) attempt to conquer Kobani came in July 2014, shortly following the dramatic IS advance into Iraq. It was during this assault on Kobani that evidence emerged which appeared to point to the use by the Islamic State on at least one occasion of some kind of chemical agent against the Kurdish fighters of the YPG (Peoples’ Protection Units).
The July offensive commenced on July 2nd. According to Kurdish activists, the use of the chemical agent took place on July 12th, in the village of Avdiko, in the eastern part of the Kobani enclave (now in IS hands.)

Link:http://www.gloria-center.org/2014/10...aphic-content/

I note the suggestion that the CW may have come from a sealed Iraqi state bunker complex. Which was the subject of a thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=20863

Note one UK SME, Dan Kaszeta has Tweeted:

Photos I've seen so far not terribly conclusive

[Polarbear]

I remember having read this article about an alleged attack with chlorine gas on Iraqi troops just west of Baghdad.

ISIS kills 300 Iraqi soldiers by chlorine gas attack in Saqlawiyah

Unfortunately I could not find any confirmation on the actual use of chemical weapons. But there were rumours that IS had used chlorine gas on multiple occasions in Syria as well though with not so many casualties.

I wonder if anyone can confirm this incident.

Cheers PB

[Bill Moore]

From the SWJ roundup

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...cbb_story.html

Islamic State militants allegedly used chlorine gas against Iraqi security forces

Dizzy, vomiting and struggling to breathe, 11 Iraqi police officers were rushed to a government hospital 50 miles north of the capital last month. The diagnosis: poisoning by chlorine gas. The perpetrators, according to the officers: Islamic State extremists.

The chlorine attack appears to be the first confirmed use of chemical weapons by the Islamic State on the battlefield. An Iraqi Defense Ministry official corroborated the events, and doctors said survivors’ symptoms were consistent with chlorine poisoning.

Overall the use has not been to effective in either Syria or Iraq, but is producing terror, which is completely understandable.

http://www.theatlantic.com/internati...eapons/381920/

Has ISIS Crossed a New Red Line?

Speaking of the three Iraqi accusations, National Security Council spokesman Alistair Baskey told The New York Times: "We are aware of the reports but cannot confirm details and are seeking additional information. The use of chlorine as a chemical weapon is an abhorrent act. These recent allegations underscore the importance of our work to eliminate chemical weapons in this volatile region.”

If confirmed, these attacks would be the first chemical weapons attacks in Iraq in several years. At the State Department on Friday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that while the reports won't necessarily shift America's policy vis-à-vis ISIS, “it obviously can affect tactical decisions within that strategy.”

I suspect we will continue seeking additional information for as long as possible to avoid another red line.

[Bill Moore]

http://www.voanews.com/content/repor...s/2867541.html

Report: IS May Have Used Chemical Agents on Kurds

July 18, 2015 7:35 AM

Kurdish fighters and weapons experts say the Islamic State militant group has fired chemical weapons on Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq.

Those exposed to the chemical were quickly given medical treatment and no one died.

Investigators also said Kurdish fighters have recently captured industrial-grade gas masks from Islamic State forces, indicating they are "prepared and equipped for chemical warfare."

[Bill Moore]

Of course greed played a role in the motivation, but so did hatred of the U.S. by the Russian Mafia groups. Selling nuclear materials to ISIL to attack the U.S. serves two purposes, one making money, and other providing the means to a group to attack a mutual enemy the U.S.. Law Enforcement did an outstanding job, but remember they have to get it right every time. The intent is there, and there are so those willing to match those up with intent with the means to execute a WMD attack. I hesitate to call radiological dispersion devise a WMD, but it will have an outsized psychological effect.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/n...006-story.html

Nuclear smugglers shopped radioactive material to Islamic State, other terrorists: AP report

The previously unpublicized case is one of at least four attempts in five years in which criminal networks with suspected Russian ties sought to sell radioactive material to extremists through Moldova, an investigation by The Associated Press has found. One investigation uncovered an attempt to sell bomb-grade uranium to a real buyer from the Middle East, the first known case of its kind.

“He said: 'I really want an Islamic buyer because they will bomb the Americans.'
- Constantin Malic, Moldovan investigator

The repeated attempts to peddle radioactive materials signal that a thriving nuclear black market has emerged in an impoverished corner of Eastern Europe on the fringes of the former Soviet Union.