Pakistan Predictions 2012

[omarali50]

I am not "worried" about R and W in the sense of "worried what they may do to Pakistan". I was expressing the hope that R and W will not get India involved more deeply that is cost-efficient.
About Pakistan, unfortunately GHQ is not asking for advice from liberals or lefties or mildly cynical democrats. They are boxing above their weight category and ordinary Pakistanis are paying most of the price. Sadly, that may continue for a while. I agree that Relatives and Wives will probably do little damage and Afghans and Russians and CIA and ISI's own rebellious children (above all) will do more.
The following thoughts are easily misunderstood, but I do wish India would do better because I think the modern idea of India is superior to most other competing ideas in the subcontinent. I wish it success because I believe that its success will be good for a billion plus Indians and could pull up others around its periphery. I am aware that there is a large gap between idea and practice in India (and of course, there is in all countries) but the failure of this ideal would likely be a catastrophe, not just for India, but for its neighbours as well.
There may be smaller catastrophes along the way even if the idea works better, and particular neighbours may fail to benefit from its success due to their own short-sightedness or other obsessions (and it may have to succeed in spite of them, not with their cooperation), but a better India would be a net plus for the people of the region (though not necessarily for all factions).
If this sounds too mushy I would add that I do have far more cynical days..

[blueblood]

I am not "worried" about R and W in the sense of "worried what they may do to Pakistan". I was expressing the hope that R and W will not get India involved more deeply that is cost-efficient.
About Pakistan, unfortunately GHQ is not asking for advice from liberals or lefties or mildly cynical democrats. They are boxing above their weight category and ordinary Pakistanis are paying most of the price. Sadly, that may continue for a while. I agree that Relatives and Wives will probably do little damage and Afghans and Russians and CIA and ISI's own rebellious children (above all) will do more.
The following thoughts are easily misunderstood, but I do wish India would do better because I think the modern idea of India is superior to most other competing ideas in the subcontinent. I wish it success because I believe that its success will be good for a billion plus Indians and could pull up others around its periphery. I am aware that there is a large gap between idea and practice in India (and of course, there is in all countries) but the failure of this ideal would likely be a catastrophe, not just for India, but for its neighbours as well.
There may be smaller catastrophes along the way even if the idea works better, and particular neighbours may fail to benefit from its success due to their own short-sightedness or other obsessions (and it may have to succeed in spite of them, not with their cooperation), but a better India would be a net plus for the people of the region (though not necessarily for all factions).
If this sounds too mushy I would add that I do have far more cynical days..

True, but you know as well as I do that is not going to happen. As VCheng said, this opportunity is too enticing to pass up for RAW but our present government is the most timid one we ever had. Overseas adventure is not their cup of tea. Recent Maldivian crisis is a perfect example. And when a nation with a strong military is led by an economist some things are bound to go wrong.

So far the idea of Republic of India despite it's flaws and challenges have survived for 60 years and is stronger than ever. For a liberal like you it's a good thing, for a Pak hardliner it's not. I have been criticized on Indian forums for not rooting for the defeat of Pakistan in SWAT and SW. This was not out of love but I was not ready to have a neighbor whose radical but disciplined army is to be replaced by a more radical and trigger happy bunch of thugs.

This tiny planet won't survive a much larger and much more powerful "Afghanistan".

[VCheng]

Fancy seeing you here. You guys give too much credit to "Relatives and Wives Wing". Sure they'll try but as always will end up spending taxpayer's money on nothing.

I don't know with whom I have the pleasure of discussing this topic here, but I do look forward to it.

I am not "worried" about R and W in the sense of "worried what they may do to Pakistan". I was expressing the hope that R and W will not get India involved more deeply that is cost-efficient.
About Pakistan, unfortunately GHQ is not asking for advice from liberals or lefties or mildly cynical democrats. They are boxing above their weight category and ordinary Pakistanis are paying most of the price. Sadly, that may continue for a while. I agree that Relatives and Wives will probably do little damage and Afghans and Russians and CIA and ISI's own rebellious children (above all) will do more................

With the situation being as volatile as it is, and being worsened by the amateurs "boxing above their weight" in the GHQ, it will not take much investment in resources from the R&AW (or for anyone else, for that matter) to achieve at least a set of goals that will keep the khakis wrapped up within their own borders for the foreseeable future.

True, but you know as well as I do that is not going to happen. As VCheng said, this opportunity is too enticing to pass up for RAW but our present government is the most timid one we ever had. Overseas adventure is not their cup of tea. Recent Maldivian crisis is a perfect example. And when a nation with a strong military is led by an economist some things are bound to go wrong. .................

It is not a matter of being enticing: it simply makes good policy at this point in time to further entangle the domestic situation to the point that exporting jihadi operations becomes increasingly problematic for Pakistan.

Couple that with a failing economy, chronically hopeless governance, and a clueless leadership, and India may yet have to deal with a slowly imploding nuclear armed neighbor, regardless of whether USA remains in the picture or not.

[blueblood]

I don't know with whom I have the pleasure of discussing this topic here, but I do look forward to it.

An age old lurker of PDF, hence the amazement.

It is not a matter of being enticing: it simply makes good policy at this point in time to further entangle the domestic situation to the point that exporting jihadi operations becomes increasingly problematic for Pakistan.

Couple that with a failing economy, chronically hopeless governance, and a clueless leadership, and India may yet have to deal with a slowly imploding nuclear armed neighbor, regardless of whether USA remains in the picture or not.

Policy wise it's a bad decision to venture into Astan. Things are already messed up and R&AW playing a major role will only make it worse, for India too.

Other reasons are mentioned in my earlier posts.

[VCheng]

An age old lurker of PDF, hence the amazement.

I haven't been to PDF is quite a while now.

Policy wise it's a bad decision to venture into Astan. Things are already messed up and R&AW playing a major role will only make it worse, for India too.

Other reasons are mentioned in my earlier posts.

Given the level of involvement of India in Afghanistan already, I would submit that the decision has already been taken; it is only a matter of implementation as circumstances evolve over the next few years.

Whether it turns out to be a bad or good decision will take some time to become evident.

[blueblood]

I haven't been to PDF is quite a while now.



Given the level of involvement of India in Afghanistan already, I would submit that the decision has already been taken; it is only a matter of implementation as circumstances evolve over the next few years.

Whether it turns out to be a bad or good decision will take some time to become evident.

That place is becoming more and more useless every passing day. People, regardless of nationality keep on bickering.

It depends on what you consider as "involvement". Building roads for afghans and giving them thousands of visas every year.

For last four years I been hearing about the involvement of RAW in every darn thing that happened in Pak. With no sort of evidence at all. I am not even saying that you present these evidences to India. But you can present them to China or US or Saudi Arabia or to anyone for all I care.
Make China or Saudi Arabia say that India is "involved".

I am not saying that RAW is an angel but you got show it that it is not.

[VCheng]

That place is becoming more and more useless every passing day. People, regardless of nationality keep on bickering.

It depends on what you consider as "involvement". Building roads for afghans and giving them thousands of visas every year.

For last four years I been hearing about the involvement of RAW in every darn thing that happened in Pak. With no sort of evidence at all. I am not even saying that you present these evidences to India. But you can present them to China or US or Saudi Arabia or to anyone for all I care.
Make China or Saudi Arabia say that India is "involved".

I am not saying that RAW is an angel but you got show it that it is not.

PDF is a lost cause, like most things Pakistani, so let's leave that aside.




What you describe as the positive aspects of Indian involvement are exactly what the ISI honchos are most afraid of, since it is this soft power that will make the coercive nature of Pakistani support superfluous over time for the Afghan people.

The claims of R&AW involvement in every adverse event is Pakistan are merely a manifestation of the India-centric mindset that has been so carefully constructed over the decades that even those who should know better are falling for it, so please do not think much of it.

As the realization sets in that not only is the concept of strategic depth dead (not that it ever was alive), but the socioeconomic rot has become irreversible, it would not be beyond the realm of possibility that ill-thought out misadventures would be seen as last ditch efforts to save the state by drawing in other players by virtue of blackmail.

Those panicked jerks will fail as before, but all this will take perhaps another decade to play out slowly.

In the meantime, let's see what are the formal recommendations of the Parliamentary National Security Committee are for restarting the bilateral relationship with USA, with another desperate plea to consider Kashmir as a quid pro quo for helping with post withdrawal Afghanistan.

That too has no realistic chances of success.

Yes, the coming couple of years are not looking good for Pakistan at all.