Kenya (catch all)

[Bill Moore]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/09...0-students-in/

Islamist terrorists kill dozens of students in attack on Nigerian college

Islamic terrorists dressed in Nigerian military uniforms assaulted a college inside the country Sunday, gunning down dozens of students as they slept in their dorms and shot those trying to flee, witnesses say.

"They started gathering students into groups outside, then they opened fire and killed one group and then moved onto the next group and killed them. It was so terrible," on surviving student, who would only give his first name of Idris, told Reuters.

KingJaja, this type of attack should be a redline for any nation. I have seen little evidence that moderate responses work against animals like this.

[JMA]

KingJaja, this type of attack should be a redline for any nation. I have seen little evidence that moderate responses work against animals like this.

Bill, they apparently have 9 perps in custody. Given that Kenya does not have the same sensitivities over the use of ... shall we say ... coercion, they will soon all be singing like little birdies. All will be revealed.

That said, yes, you are correct it then depends on what is done with the intel.

[jmm99]

insulting all the real animals I love.

The fact is that these in Nigeria and those in Kenya are human beings with the same faculties of intellect, conscience and free will that we possess; that they have made deliberate and premediatated choices to do exactly what they have done; and that, as cognizant human beings, they deserve everything that is coming their way.

In short, they deserve retribution, reprobation and specific deterrence.

Regards

Mike

[Bill Moore]

insulting all the real animals I love.

The fact is that these in Nigeria and those in Kenya are human beings with the same faculties of intellect, conscience and free will that we possess; that they have made deliberate and premediatated choices to do exactly what they have done; and that, as cognizant human beings, they deserve everything that is coming their way.

In short, they deserve retribution, reprobation and specific deterrence.

Regards

Mike

I used to think our strategists would wake up to simple truths and realize how deeply flawed our COIN doctrine really is. This is relevant because we have largely chosen to use a COIN approach to counter terrorism globalism globally by projecting the idea that if you just have good governance all of this will go away. I'm convinced now that our ill conceived views of how the world works hasn't and won't change just because those views are disproven when they bump up against reality. Nations that have a clearer view of reality, a reality not shaded by our idealism, will have to take the lead in the fight against terrorists. They shouldn't allow us to hold them back.

The only way to win over these ass clowns is to convert to their religion and embrace "their" version of sharia law. Of course that won't be enough, it never is. Where they achieve power status what follows will be the oppression of women, and then certain men won't be Muslim enough for the radicals so they'll have to be killed, and so on and so on.

[jmm99]

While I still adhere generally to the concept of neutralization (not as a euphemism, but meaning to kill, detain indefinitely or convert), the option of conversion has never seemed to me - in and from the Vietnam era to the present - of much value in dealing with persons of strong ideologies (political or religious). Besides the "converts" are usually low-hanging fruit (lower rankers); and you can't really trust them.

The option of indefinite detention has the potential positive value of data gathering - we can discuss what techniques ought to be used ad infinitum. However, as the Gitmo cases show, indefinite detention has become a limited US option; and, perhaps, that is as it should be. I'm OK with that so long as the kill option is open.

The kill option has three parts:

1. The person killed did, or was involved in the doing of (including being an immediate or imminent threat, #3 below), a bad thing (so, the killing is "retribution").

2. The reasons for killing that person are articulated and absolutely no apology is made for the killing (our articulation is "reprobation").

3. By killing that person, we prevent future bad acts by that person; but we also have to kill those persons who are an immediate or imminent threat to do, or who are involved in the planning of doing, bad acts ("specific deterrence").

I'm not in favor of the US being the World's go to sniper; and personally favor non-violent action in all cases where it's likely to work. But, there are man-eating humans roaming the World; and after initial contact, the US should do onto them as they do unto the US.

NB: The theory of general deterrence (influencing a number of others not to do something by punishing a guilty person) is really an attempt at indirect conversion. Thus, I believe in general deterrence even less than direct attemps at conversiom. I'm also a hard sell on rehabilitation programs.

In reality, I'm a lousy singer - except when very drunk, or in the shower. I also confess to having used the metaphor "man-eating tiger" more than once at SWC and elsewhere.

Regards

Mike

PS: After posting this, I read Kilcullen's Westgate mall attacks: urban areas are the battleground of the 21st century - As the terror attack in Nairobi this week brutally illustrates, cities will be the war zones of the future (Guardian, 27 Sep 2013). I've been preaching about littorals for years; the Marine Corps has been preaching about littorals since well before I was born; and if anyone hasn't seen the population move to slum-cities (on or a vertical envelopment's distance from a coast), that person is blind.

Unless it is very implicit, Kilcullen does not offer an ideology to deal with the "urban problem":

Understanding the new, highly connected nature of urban environments like Mumbai or Nairobi is an important first step in preparing to deal with this problem. Big data can sometimes help. Analysts can now track millions upon millions of data points (traffic patterns, say, or cellphone usage, or pedestrian movement, or prices in markets, or internet hits, or bank transactions, or numbers and types of cars in parking lots) to understand, through remote observation, how a city works. But how do we do that in enormous megaslums that are constantly growing and morphing and which don't have the street names and building addresses that allow geo-data to mean something?

Many of today's coastal cities, especially those in the developing world, are growing at breakneck speed. In a conflict, people's uncertainty arises from armed groups targeting the population; in a city that's growing exponentially – constantly outgrowing itself – the same terrifying lack of predictability can arise simply from the pace of change. Thus a megacity under stress can offer opportunities for conflict entrepreneurs (gang leaders, crime bosses or militant extremists) to control populations, provided they create a predictable rule set that makes people feel safe in the face of instability. This occurs because of the predictability inherent in the rules, whether people like the group or not, and regardless of the content of those rules. You don't have to like the cops, or agree with the speed limit, for the road rules to make you feel safe. Eventually, provided the group builds consistency and order, through a spectrum of persuasive, administrative and coercive measures, it may gain the loyalty and support of the local population.
...
As we dust ourselves off after a decade of war, community resilience, public safety and economic opportunity in crowded urban areas may turn out to matter more than counterterrorism or counterinsurgency. Designers and urbanists speak of participative development and human-centred design as key elements of a new approach to city development. Figuring how to co-design solutions in partnership with a local community, when the community is under threat and someone is shooting at you, may be the hardest challenge of all.

Whether you like it or not, "talion" (retribution, reprobation, specific deterrence) is an ideology. But in the US: here, yesterday; gone, today.

Unlike us, the "conflict entrepreneurs" are not shy about a talion ideology. They apply its principles and its moderators within their group (e.g., Taliban in Astan), but are at war with the outside groups that oppose their interests.

The only recipe Kilcullen offers in the article is "...community resilience, public safety and economic opportunity ..." Please, spare me more state building; excuse, city buliding.

I've cited "Eye for an Eye" in another thread; but here's the ideology that used to be - Hitesman, Setting the Stage for Justice in the Revenge Genre Film (2005) (a good short treatment).

[Bill Moore]

the option of conversion has never seemed to me - in and from the Vietnam era to the present - of much value in dealing with persons of strong ideologies (political or religious). Besides the "converts" are usually low-hanging fruit (lower rankers); and you can't really trust them.

My comment was intended to imply we can win them over if we convert to their religious views, but even that would fail. Besides who wants to convert to any religion, especially one based on hate and ignorance? Obviously some do, probably come from the same psychological stock as the anarchists.

[jmm99]

I mean attempting to convert the bad guys to "our" ideology.

Regards

Mike

[KingJaja]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/09...0-students-in/



KingJaja, this type of attack should be a redline for any nation. I have seen little evidence that moderate responses work against animals like this.

The Nigerian Army is as brutal as they come, but we are dealing with something that might be beyond the capacity of the Nigerian Army (120,000 soldiers also managing a Niger Delta insurgency & a Middle Belt crisis).

The Sahel had great inland cities & it's economy was based on transactions between the interior & the Maghreb. Unfortunately, European trade with the coasts broke those links & even though the physical routes for trade are intact, very little trade occurs in that region.

That region is not economically productive & will never be, but it is still linked to the Maghreb & the interior. So we are dealing with a transnational problem that might only get worse with time.

It is impossible to police Nigeria's Northern borders - so these animals will have free movement through even weaker states like Niger, Chad & Cameroun - which they could destabilize large parts of in future.

I don't know how this thing will end, but it won't end soon. It will end only after all parties are exhausted.

[carl]

Two points and some questions.

First, the North American continent is getting very close to energy, fossil fuel, self sufficiency, even to the point we get to be exporters again, especially in natural gas. How might that affect our relations with Saudi Arabia?

Second, it seems the takfiri killers are embarking upon a simple religious war, kill the Christians. This is being seen in quite a few countries. How might this play out? Are they trying to provoke a reaction directed against all Muslims? That would make sense since that would give them the upper hand in the on-going struggle for leadership in the Muslim world.

Another point I just thought of. M-A is right about the Pak Army/ISI. They are the main devil. When/if they win in Afghanistan, they will be hugely encouraged as will all the takfiri killers worldwide. They will want to go on to bigger and better things. Ultimately theynwill have to be taken care of. How?

[KingJaja]

Two points and some questions.

First, the North American continent is getting very close to energy, fossil fuel, self sufficiency, even to the point we get to be exporters again, especially in natural gas. How might that affect our relations with Saudi Arabia?

Second, it seems the takfiri killers are embarking upon a simple religious war, kill the Christians. This is being seen in quite a few countries. How might this play out? Are they trying to provoke a reaction directed against all Muslims? That would make sense since that would give them the upper hand in the on-going struggle for leadership in the Muslim world.

Another point I just thought of. M-A is right about the Pak Army/ISI. They are the main devil. When/if they win in Afghanistan, they will be hugely encouraged as will all the takfiri killers worldwide. They will want to go on to bigger and better things. Ultimately theynwill have to be taken care of. How?

Sub-Saharan Africa is a bit different from the Middle East - it has a lot more Christians than Muslims & Christians tend to be located more in the wealthier, coastal cities.

If they want to provoke a reaction from Christians in Sub-Saharan Africa - eventually they'll get it, but they will regret it.

[carl]

Sub-Saharan Africa is a bit different from the Middle East - it has a lot more Christians than Muslims & Christians tend to be located more in the wealthier, coastal cities.

If they want to provoke a reaction from Christians in Sub-Saharan Africa - eventually they'll get it, but they will regret it.

From what I read, it doesn't seem that Boko Haram is inclined to being talked out of murdering people. Do you think the Nigerian Army can keep them suppressed to the extent that the people won't sort of take things into their own hands in a very big way?

[M-A Lagrange]

to read with caution:

Names of Westgate attack mastermind revealed

According to Channel 4 News in UK the alleged leader of the Nairobi shopping mall attack was born a Christian in Kenya and is a former member of the country's special forces.
The number one Westgate attacker was named as Omar or Umayr, who is believed to have been killed in this week’s siege.
Omar was a Kenyan national, born to a Christian family from Nairobi. He converted to Islam and was also a former member of Kenya’s special forces.
Umayr is understood to have left Kenya for Somalia in 2005, where he joined the Kamboni militant Islamist group. Kamboni later joined with al-Shabaab.
The report said the second man is known as Khadhab, who is a Somali national who worked in an Islamic bookshop in the Nairobi suburb of Eastleigh. He was arrested and imprisoned in Somalia, and it is alleged he was tortured by the CIA while in custody there.

http://dalsanradio.com/articles/1568...rmind-revealed

Somalia: Al-Shabab Finds Fighters Among Somali Youth in Minnesota
Nimco Ahmed, a Somali activist who works for the Minneapolis City Council, says the war and resettlement has fractured the traditional family structure.

"Most of our fathers are either not here or not in the country or dead pretty much. So not having a father figure for boys has been a struggle for us. And it is still a struggle for us," said Ahmed.

Ethiopia's invasion of Somalia in 2007 was viewed by some Somalis as a violation of Somali sovereignty even though the troops intervened at the request of the transitional Somali government and with the backing of the African Union and the U.S.

Using a mixture of religion, nationalism and what some say is deception, the Islamist militant group al-Shabab has recruited at least 20 Somali-Americans to fight against foreign troops in Somalia

.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201310010226.html

[KingJaja]

From what I read, it doesn't seem that Boko Haram is inclined to being talked out of murdering people. Do you think the Nigerian Army can keep them suppressed to the extent that the people won't sort of take things into their own hands in a very big way?

Part of the Nigerian Army strategy seems to be to empower local civilians to take on Boko Haram (hence the "Civilian Joint Task Force"). Boko Haram's most vicious recent attacks have been against these people.

I expect the army to redouble efforts, re-arm the civilians and have them take on Boko Haram again. It will be very messy.

[omarali50]

There are two different scenarios in which someone may attack a developed city in this way and while the initial hysterical-phase reaction is likely to be similar in both cases, they are not the same:
1. Some small demented group of crazied (aum whatever or suchlike) gets it into their head to do something spectacular. They kill many people, they get killed, their associates and known members get tracked down and killed or imprisoned, billions or trillions get wasted on new "Mall security" or some such, but its not really a repeatable and constant threat.
2. Some group with a real agenda, a real organization, a real ideology, attacks a developed city because their grievance with country X has reached criticality. The most likely suspect for such an act in the years to come is the jihadis. But even they cannot do this again and again. After the first attack or the third, their goose will be cooked. A sustained campaign needs a base, needs an organization, needs a pipeline of volunteers and trainers and financiers. How long before Pakistan is forced to stop any and all connection with ANY such business (or to die trying to cut them off)? I dont see how it can become a sustained and "normal" threat in advanced countries.
Its a different story for corrupt and incompetent regional powers. THEY should worry.

[carl]

Part of the Nigerian Army strategy seems to be to empower local civilians to take on Boko Haram (hence the "Civilian Joint Task Force"). Boko Haram's most vicious recent attacks have been against these people.

I expect the army to redouble efforts, re-arm the civilians and have them take on Boko Haram again. It will be very messy.

That is a classic small war fighting action, arming the local civilians. How is the army going about that? Is there some kind of formally organized entity like the CIDG or RF/PFs in Vietnam, recognizing and supporting something already forming on its own like the Sons of Iraq or is it a more informal thing?

(I expect David may moves this exchange which would be fair enough.)