Schmedlap,

I'm not convinced by Lewis' argument. While accurate to some degree, it has no precision. The 'people', 'loyalty' and 'obedience' are too broad to be of any use (which goes along with another criticism I have of the concept of the 'mass base', but that's for later). All governments use a mix of loyalty and obedience (and even some consent) to maintain influence over different elements of the population. The problem isnt that these states are dependent on "loyalty" or "obedience" but that they are generally weak institutionally (with the exception of the security forces), and liberalizaiton, democraticization, and modernization create significant instability because the state is the prime mover. The elites that govern therefore assume all of the risk. And in the last 100 years, how many states have successfully been pushed into modernity? Anyone other than Stalin's USSR?

Quote Originally Posted by Schmedlap
Who wants to be first to open up if it means you trade your tyranny, which for whatever its sins at least ensured stability and security, only to get in return Hezbollah or the latest “al-Qaeda in (insert region)” franchise?
That's not really an accurate definition of the problem. Groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Muslim Brotherhood offer consent-based alternatives to the Western-backed "obedience" regimes. And because the states are weak institutionally, these groups have significant influence when filling the capabilities gaps (social welfare, etc).

Quote Originally Posted by Schmedlap
Iraq seems to be the best hope for the region in transitioning to the consent model.
I disagree. Iraq (and Syria) had republican forms of government in their recent history. Both failed to be sustained because of factionalism and instability, resulting in the establishment of a one-party state (Egypt is not remarkably dissimilar). What has changed in Iraq that will prevent future factionalism? Will Iraq require an enduring US presence to maintain stability?

I'd argue that Syria is in the best position to modernize (and eventually democratize), if it can make peace with Israel. Peace will allow Syria to integrate into the international community, draw in wealth that will enable modernization, and allow it to address some of its social and economic problems that currently prevent modernization and the subsequent liberalization.

Quote Originally Posted by Schmedlap
Why have some countries not converted to democracy?
Because the risk of failure is too costly and the cost of success is too high.