The Civilian Shoe Dropping

[Steve the Planner]

Custis:

Your point has a lot of resonance.

First, my understanding is that the first real societal confrontation in the current era occurred when the communist urban government started to tear down a lot of old cultural traditions, and directly challenge long-standing rural practices---including education and professions, and especially for women. Social transformation stuff.

So is the military role in post-conflict on immediate stabilization/restoration, reconstruction, social transformation, etc...? Especially if bigger objectives are multi-year and richer and broader than available resources.

Where does the line get drawn? Quick hits? Immediate work?

My problem with, for example, the poppy game, is that the real answer lies in creating a sustainable alternative, which means developing (or reestablishing) markets, market support resouces, trading patterns and transportation links. My general assumption is that the farmers know how to grow what they grew for generations (not poppies) but something today makes only poppies viable. Address that. Carrots, sticks, incentives, whatever---there must be an obvious and economically viable strategy behind the many tactics.

If we want to improve their ag techniques, approaches, that is a next stage which, for the most part, they are going to figure out and adopt later...

Steve

[jcustis]

Custis:

Your point has a lot of resonance.

First, my understanding is that the first real societal confrontation in the current era occurred when the communist urban government started to tear down a lot of old cultural traditions, and directly challenge long-standing rural practices---including education and professions, and especially for women. Social transformation stuff.

So is the military role in post-conflict on immediate stabilization/restoration, reconstruction, social transformation, etc...? Especially if bigger objectives are multi-year and richer and broader than available resources.

Where does the line get drawn? Quick hits? Immediate work?

My problem with, for example, the poppy game, is that the real answer lies in creating a sustainable alternative, which means developing (or reestablishing) markets, market support resouces, trading patterns and transportation links. My general assumption is that the farmers know how to grow what they grew for generations (not poppies) but something today makes only poppies viable. Address that. Carrots, sticks, incentives, whatever---there must be an obvious and economically viable strategy behind the many tactics.

If we want to improve their ag techniques, approaches, that is a next stage which, for the most part, they are going to figure out and adopt later...

Steve

This is what has, and always will, worried me in terms on non-kinetic efforts to improve the plight of the people we are charged to protect. I have had to endure prattling from folks about this or that project or initiative, and I often thought them mad since it ran totally counter to a number of societal trends that fit that specific slice of society.

Your point about the poppy alternative effort makes me think back to a class I took in undergraduate where I formed the impression that that the so-called Green Revolution did not actually improve the plight of the most impoverished on our planet. Distribution networks, markets, seed and fertilizer procurement systems have to improve at the same time. It's not enough to simply do a seed drop of resistant wheat, without having a grasp of other factors already at play in that agricultural system.

So is the military role in post-conflict on immediate stabilization/restoration, reconstruction, social transformation, etc...? Especially if bigger objectives are multi-year and richer and broader than available resources.

If that is what the role must be, alongside kinetic efforts, the campaign plan for it has to be water tight...Sadly, when stacked up against even 15 month deployment rotations, I don't imagine that these campaign plans retain the focus and rudder steer required to actually show something for the effort.

[Steve the Planner]

jcustis:

That's what I found fascinating about Iraq. No shortage of smart, brave people or resources, but. amongst all the competing priorities, and action-oriented campaign plans chock-full of programs and tactics, we couldn't seem to create an Iraq in our image---had to wait for Iraqis to do it.

MG Caslon (MND-North) talked about the June 30 SOFA turn-over. Initially, was very skeptical that Iraqis were ready for responsibility, but accepted Gen. Odeirno's point that it was the only way forward. In retrospect, he said he was amazed by how much the Iraqi Army was ready, willing and able (within their resources), to take possession of their own country's responsibilities. Might not be perfect, but it was theirs.

Some kind of big lessons there.

Steve