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Old 17 Hours Ago   #461
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Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
Rough draft - second part of PCoG discussion.

"Secondary Types. All Political Entities exist within a socio-cultural system. They are a part of that system, but not the only part. Other elements of that system interact with the Political Entity and can either support it or oppose it. The oft cited elements of national power – Diplomatic, Information, Military, and Economic (DIME) -- are just such elements and represent tools that one nation can use to influence another. But, like tracers, they go both ways.

There are a myriad of supporting, or secondary types. The easiest way to think of these secondary types is through the metaphor of a man standing on a stool. The man is the primary PCoG. If I can influence him directly, I win. If I can’t, then I must look for another way. The secondary types are the legs of the stool. If I can cut deeply enough into one or more of those legs, I might be able to make the man unsteady, thus influencing the man just as if I had done it directly. Although there are probably dozens of secondary types, this paper only addresses a few.

Economic System/Support. Humans are economic animals. The complex social systems we build depend on economic activity. The people who make up every polity depend on the economic system to provide them with the opportunity to obtain the goods and services they need to survive and thrive. Even in the most independent of systems, the people still look to the political entity to provide the framework for a dependable economic system.

Security Forces. Security forces provide the basis of power for all political entities. In the case of a State, these are often the military and/or other security and intelligence agencies. In States, and lessor polities, these can also include private contractors or mercenaries, or militias made up of irregular forces.

Vassals or Key Supporters. These are individuals who provide the political leadership critical financial, military, or political support. In an Ideological System, these will include the actual leadership.

Ethnicity. Outside of family, ethnicity is probably the strongest physiological bond humans experience. It is often a critical part of how one defines themselves. It most likely defines what language a person speaks, what type of food the person grew-up eating, what region of the world the person lives, and potentially what religion they believe in as well as a plethora of cultural icons, common myths and fables, and historical stories. It provides an instant connection with others of the same ethnicity.

Religion. Religions provide not just a set of guiding moral principals, but also a sense of purpose. Religious leaders often are well respected in the community and are looked upon to provide guidance in difficult times.

Political Ideology. There are many political ideologies. Sometimes these are pure political theories, like Democracy or Anarchy. Sometimes they are a combination of political and economic theory, like Communism, Monarchy, and Socialism. On occasion, the political ideology and the Political System align, as in Democracy, but this is usually not the case. In most cases, the political ideology acts as a framework that bolsters and justifies the Political System. As such, while attacks against a political ideology will be useful, they are unlikely to be dispositive.

Individual Human Rights. Historically speaking, this is a new concept that is primarily a 17th Century Western invention. This is the idea that each person is a coequal with all other people when it comes to certain aspects of human life. These aspects are usually referred to as rights or freedoms, and include freedom of religion, freedom of speech, and freedom to choose one’s own path in life.

National myths and Icons. Although often overlooked, a people are also bound by their common myths and Icons. In America, the Icon of Uncle Sam looms large in patriotic symbolism, as do stories of the founding fathers. These icons and stories can be used to support a political leader, or to attack them."
Are you not moving really into an "eco-system" which Kilcullen often used...was in vague for awhile then fell out of favor but inside the IT security world it is making a comeback lately as the easiest explanation for the intersection between criminal and state sponsored cyber and information warfare...?

Your stool mechanism is interesting as I often use it to describe exactly the current power structures inside Russia....that Putin juggles in moving his political war forward...

Which was a four legged stool.....1) Russian oligarchs ...2) the Russian state security services...3) Russian military and lastly 4) Russian transnational gangs.....overlaying all of this was the ideological foundation provided by the drive of the Russian Orthodox Church.

Right now Putin has actually done an excellent job of balancing all of their needs and demands to remain in their individual power spheres...and to maintain their support for him.

What is interesting is to go back and review what Kilcullen first wrote in 2004 and then sit back and slowly inhale and actually notice how close he was to the current reality of IS and AQ...13 years later which we have largely overlooked...

Might actually well worth it to go back reread and then adapt to what you are doing....this is actually what now advance IT security types are doing say with botnets automated and those individually controlled....but we are using an interesting AI algorithm developed along the lines of IBMs Watson that then allows us to "see" that ecosystem in a 3D model

Here is a recent stab at it by a security analyst.....while the chart is a formal structured line and block have to think of a spider web concept where as in a spider web every time there is a touching point there is a potential ecosystem.....interacting with another ecosystems and if one thing happens to the right of the web that are often ripples effecting the left side of the web and it those ripples that have to be watched which we have never done well....

The problem many had during the Iraq war was actually taking what Kilcullen was envisioning and putting it into something that actually reflected the living world around us in Iraq...AFG or Syria....and I am sad to say many do not have that ability and that is largely why the concept of an "ecosystem died a slow death"...but due to the complexity now seen in cyber and information warfare it makes perfect sense....and in our business we are fully able to "see" the intersecting points....

Many tend to forget that cyber and information warfare are human driven environments carried out either via machines and or by the human himself..and it is the human that derives the attack methodologies not a machine...and it is the human that discovers the tech failures on the engineering side that allow for such attacks.....thus a human ecosystem is easy to understand and build....and now with the advent of AI software programs far easier to envision than say 2006...

The chart below takes into account all the known elements of a criminal ecosystem for the internet side.....once you understand all the components then it is easy to config them into an ecosystem based on their "value" inside the system meaning who is important.....middlle important and less important and more critically what is the single point of failure and or points of failure...or where do I have to push myself into the system in order to disrupt the system....stop the system or simply gain time to figure out something else....because the human on the other side is doing the exact same thing as I am and trying to find my single point of failure....

The problem I have had over the years is that many studies/research articles are to "technical" in their structure and then it turns one off ....keep it simple...describe in a simplistic way that a ten year can understand and show examples tied to ground reality.....gets one further down the acceptance road than a study with tens of footnotes that no one ever really reads and or looks up...

Example.....if you have ever learned morse code you will learn that each and every MC operator has a "specific key rhythm" that makes him identifiable.... his "fingerprint" that allows monitors to then identify him when he is transmitting MC....hackers are no different each individual hacker and or group has a specific attack thought pattern and will always use it if it was successful and that is what gets them into trouble as we have been very good lately at "seeing" those "signatures"....

Just as we know the Russian state sponsored Fancy Bear was behind the DNC attack and now the same exact methodology is used in the French Marcon attack....hacker success breeds often complacency....just as we can tell the difference between a human driven attack vs. how a machine is carrying out the attack...

If you had read the posting on the Russian hacking site of the Russian state sponsored attack in 2014 on DoS where a western intel service actually got DoS/NSA into the actual computers of the hackers and turned on a video camera in the room for the first time it was key stroke for key stroke...actual war in the cyber trenches...never seen again....

The problem for cyber and information warfare is when to declare it an "actual war" thus triggering say Article 5 of NATO...Actually no one really has the honesty to stand up and define it as then the hackers would test the definition and see if there is a reaction by a nation state...

12 years ago when Kilcullen first used the "ecosystem" we had no data points that we could fall back on and it was hard to generate it so the model fall out of we have the data points and it is easy to do...

Just a thought...
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Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 16 Hours Ago at 07:19 AM.
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Old 15 Hours Ago   #462
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This goes to the question of when is cyber and information warfare true "war"..

When would NATO Article 5 be triggered is it was declared to be "war"...

That is exactly where we are now....I have seen the results and analysis and when the three top GRU Russian state sponsored hacking teams attack are in fact under "attack and in a true sense it is a "kinetic war" as Russia is trying to force a political decision on France...or "bending France to the will of Russia" which is why "physical wars were fought in the past....

Russian state sponsored hacking attacks and influence meddling in the US election went unchallenged thus we see Russia repeating the exact same attack style...

Fancy Bear, Pawn Storm and other Russian hackers reportedly turning to France vote .

The same attack style from the Russian state sponsored hacking teams is now being seen and has been seen a few months ago now in Germany ahead of that major election....

“I think some of this activity is even happening today, some of these spear phishing emails are going out today,” said Ed Cabrera, chief cybersecurity officer at Trend Micro. In one screenshot Trend Micro provided to BuzzFeed News, the hackers appeared to be targeting the Konrad Adenueu Stiftung, a German think tank which is affiliated with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Party of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The hackers set up multiple internet addresses that mirrored those of the think tank to trick people into entering their passwords and other information
I will take this idea of triggering Article 5 in another direction......

Yesterday...the main Russian evening TV announcer basically in Russian stated that the French election could be won for Le Pen IF there was another terrorist attack...which we even saw Trump inject into the race with his tweet as well....and if we really looked closely at Trump his support for Le Pen goes actually deeper....than a tweet......

In January, Marine Le Pen held a fundraiser for her presidential campaign... at Trump Tower.

SO if in fact there is another terror attack and the French can trace it back to Russia....WOULD then NATO Article 5 be triggered?

An interesting question is it not?

Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 15 Hours Ago at 08:23 AM.
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Old 11 Hours Ago   #463
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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
Bill..I said this morning that the Russians really do believe we the US are waging a non linear against them........

Nice to see that their TASS media outlet agrees with me.....

Kremlin advisor reveals 'cure for US aggression'
Russian Politics & Diplomacy
April 21, 19:22 UTC+3

Putin's advisor also believes that Donald Trump is just "doing what the ruling elite expects him to do"

Fun fact: Glazev is a paid member of Malofeev's NGO. Malofeev bankrolled & tried to deliver coup in Montenegro. Extremely strong evidence held by Montenegro with them requesting an Interpol arrest warrant for Malofeev....

NOTE...Reuters recently reported that the USIC had two key documents from this Malofeev NGO that were the actual plans for the hacking and influence operations conducted by Russia against the US election adamently denied by Russian FM....and that they were signed off on by Putin....

Katehon 2nd member Glazev is a figure in #FrolovLeaks, commands active hybrid war branch frm Orthodox Church side against ukraine

Head of #Russian Institute of CIS Zatulin, in Jan 2013, writes a memo using terms "Sacred Crimea & Novorossiya"
Only in German and or Russian

That memo, one year and one month prior to Crimean annexation, ends up on desk of Glazev, Putin advisor on developments in CIS.

Ukrainian Cyber Alliance (UCA) hacktivists shared with InformNapalm a massive data dump from the mailbox of Kirill Frolov, Vice-Director of the Institute for CIS Countries, spokesman of the Union of Orthodox Citizens and ROC expert....

Russian response was initially that it was all "fake" but in the end admitted he had been indeed hacked BUT by the CIA.....
Only in Russian and or Ukrainian
Only in German

NOTE...the UCA has also hacked into the email account of the Putin's personal adivsor to the Russian mercenaries in eastern Ukraine Surkov WHICH the US is now trying to open a back channel to by Trump's appointing of "WH special advisor" which does not need Congressional approval as a way to finally establish a back channel link between Putin and Trump.....

Again Russia claimed this hack was done after they first stated Surkov had no email again the CIA.....they defintely were not about to admit UCA pulled it off....

Russian political warfare hard at work..... is extremley important to understand the Russian foreign spy service (SVR) chief who replaced Malefeev......and how he fits now into Russian political a mjaor player as he is very close to Putin....
Further information on the UCA's hacks of Surkov Putin's personal man in eastern Ukraine.......

Surkov leaks show Russia funds and manages conflict in Ukraine
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