Somalia: not piracy catch all thread

[davidbfpo]

The kidnapped DGSE agent was:

..hostage Denis Allex, kidnapped in Somalia in July 2009...

From:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20996963

IIRC he was one of two agents kidnapped, the other escaped after a few months.

There were two photos shown on the BBC News, only one on their website; they showed a very different man. Sadly I think his chances of survival now are slim.

[davidbfpo]

An optimistic article, indeed rather odd as it claims:

Yet in 2012, Somalis held their first democratic elections in decades..

For once the comments are worth skimming through.

I looked quickly, we have not missed this democratic election, it was a parliament meeting, it's members nominated by the clans.

Link:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...d-8449310.html

[davidbfpo]

An article in West Point's CTC's periodical 'Sentinel' on the vagaries of warfare in a clan dominated society:

To others, this seems like a barely organized chaos, the unpredictability of Somali political behavior. Somalis may seem like they have very limited or tentative buy-in to agreements, and are unreliable and selfish. In fact, leaders, particularly local leaders who are directly responsible to kin and communities, tend to be pragmatic to the extreme.

Link:http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/rethin...ncy-in-somalia

[davidbfpo]

The UK is to co-host a conference on Somalia again, so this article comes as no surprise and our PM, David Cameron, referred to Somalia as an example of development and security being entwined. Ah, but does anyone seriously believe:

The Somalian government payroll currently includes 8,500 soldiers and 6,000 police in Mogadishu, the capital. Most are hastily drafted members of militias whose ultimate loyalty is to clans or warlord leaders.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ty-forces.html

I don't and way-back there was a post about those trained in Uganda, by an EU mission, promptly defected to a militia or Al-Shabaab upon their return.

[M-A Lagrange]

After may be a too entousiastic and optimistic vision of Somalia, to day was a hot day in Moga:

Somali militants attack UN base in Mogadishu, killing 15
Fifteen people have been killed after Islamist militants launched their first major assault for years on a UN compound in the Somali capital, Mogadishu.

At least two suicide bombers struck the biggest UN base in the city, which was then stormed by gunmen who fought security forces inside for about two hours.
(...)
The al-Shabaab militant group said on its Twitter feed shortly after the attack that its fighters "are now in control of the entire compound and the battle is still ongoing".
But on Wednesday afternoon General Mukhtar Mohamed of the Somali police held a press conference to say the security forces had succeeded in liberating the compound. At least 20 people, including civilians and security forces, were wounded in the battle. He also confirmed that the police apprehended one suspect in connection with the attack.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013...base-mogadishu

[TV-PressPass]

Interesting that the South African's had someone in there:

South African state weapons firm Denel said two of its staff were killed in an attack on Wednesday on the United Nations compound in the Somali capital Mogadishu.

A spokeswoman for South Africa's largest manufacturer of defense equipment said the identity of the workers was not yet known.

"We have sent someone to Somalia to inform us from the ground," Vuyelwa Qinga said.

[davidbfpo]

TV footage often shows that ANISOM use a lot of South African made wheeled APCs and I have a vague recollection that some small drones were sought. Maybe that explains the presence of Denel's staff?

[M-A Lagrange]

TV footage often shows that ANISOM use a lot of South African made wheeled APCs and I have a vague recollection that some small drones were sought. Maybe that explains the presence of Denel's staff?

It is much more simple: Denel's staff is mainly present because of the contract the UN have with Mechem, Denel's demining branch.

[davidbfpo]

Fascinating insight into how Al-Shabaab - in 2012 (just found by another) - is following their own model of 'divide & rule':

If a split within the rank and file of Somalia’s al-Shabaab militants was a mere speculation, it has now become a reality, thanks to a lacerating Friday sermon by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, Somalia’s best known holy warrior.

In a rare public dissent, Aweys sharply attacked the organization’s top brass, accusing them of, among other things, monopolizing jihad, globalizing the Somali conflict, assassination of innocent Somalis and, more damningly, acting in a manner unbecoming of upright jihadists.

Link:http://africanarguments.org/2012/04/...by-abdi-aynte/

[davidbfpo]

An update on the above post by the BBC:

A top Islamist in Somalia, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, has arrived in the capital Mogadishu amid reports of a split in the al-Shabab group. He was flown from the northern town of Adado, escorted by government security forces, but it is unclear whether he has surrendered or defected.

The exact cause of the al-Shabab split is not known, but there has been a long-running internal power struggle between its leader Ahmed Abdi Godane and those seen as more moderate who oppose links with al-Qaeda, analysts say.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23115819

[davidbfpo]

In a single stroke, Ahmed Abdi Godane, the emir of Al-Shabaab who goes by the nom de guerre of “Abu Zubeir,” managed to re-align the radical group’s leadership dynamics and further consolidated his power by getting rid of his major detractors. His loyalists killed two co-founders of Al-Shabaab, including his former deputy and longtime friend, Ibrahim Al-Afghani, and chased away Hassan Dahir Aweys and Mukhtar Robow, the former spokesman for the terror group.

Link:http://africanarguments.org/2013/07/...ssan-m-abukar/

[davidbfpo]

Unconfirmed report circulating that:

The main target ....was Gary Schroen, director of CIA operations in East Africa.... Four senior Ugandan officers, including the deputy commander of UPDF forces in Somalia, were killed in the attack. One of Schroen's security staff, a US intelligence official, was also killed. Three US officials, including Schroen, and one Ugandan officer were seriously wounded.

Link:http://www.kavkazcenter.com/eng/cont...13/18050.shtml

It is also on a subscription site. Nothing readily found on Google.

Added two hours later. A partial indication that there was an attack, although not who was injured: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/af..._132537032.htm

[davidbfpo]

A FP report, citing a new UN report and the US academic Ken Menkhaus. The last paragraph:

In a particularly grim twist, it is America's counterterrorism partners -- corrupt Somali institutions and Kenyan collusion with al-Shabab's financial backers -- that pose a potentially even more lethal threat to American aims. "That Shabab is stronger than people think is interesting and newsworthy," said Menkhaus. But to Menkhaus, the bigger story is the failure of America's allies to maintain a united front against al-Shabab. "Our best friends are busy fighting one another."

The UN is critical of the Kenyans, who they allege have:

Even worse, Kenyan forces in Kismayo have clashed with clans loyal to the U.S.-backed federal government while colluding with financial backers of al-Shabab in the lucrative and illicit charcoal trade, enabling the Islamist movement to refill its war chest. "The revenue that al-Shabaab currently derives from its Kismayo shareholding, its ... exports and the taxation of ground transportation likely exceeds the estimated U.S. $25 million it generated in charcoal revenue when it controlled Kismayo," the report stated.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...abab?page=full

[davidbfpo]

Now Pyjamas Media have a short story, without confirmation; plus no official comments are being made and the story ends:

Today, via Twitter, the Somali terror group announced “Schroen succumbed to his injuries 2 days ago, making him the most high-profile U.S. agent killed.”

Link:http://pjmedia.com/blog/al-shabaab-c...inglepage=true

[davidbfpo]

Professor John Schindler, a blogger on:http://20committee.com/ just responded to a Twitter query re Al-Shabaab's claims:

Schroen story v weird, no idea what really happened.

[SWJ Blog]

Somalia 20 Years Later – Lessons Learned, Re-learned and Forgotten

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[davidbfpo]

An interesting commentary by Ken Menkhaus, the doyen of US Somali academics, one passage says it all:

The Westgate attack is the latest sign of the group’s weakness. It was a desperate, high-risk gamble by Shabaab to reverse its prospects. If the deadly attack succeeds in prompting vigilante violence by Kenyan citizens or heavy-handed government reactions against Somali residents, Shabaab stands a chance of recasting itself as the vanguard militia protecting Somalis against external enemies. It desperately needs to reframe the conflict in Somalia as Somalis versus the foreigners, not as Somalis who seek peace and a return to normalcy versus a toxic jihadi movement.

Link:http://thinkprogress.org/security/20...n-desperation/

Note his view that the Somali desire to make money acted as a restraint on Al-Shabaab.

[Bill Moore]

An interesting commentary by Ken Menkhaus, the doyen of US Somali academics, one passage says it all:

Link:http://thinkprogress.org/security/20...n-desperation/

Note his view that the Somali desire to make money acted as a restraint on Al-Shabaab.

Seems we have heard this spin many times before. How many times have Al-Qaeda and Al Shabaab been on their last leg and about to die off? I agree the recent trend for Al Shabaab hasn't been good, but they still control a large section of Somalia, they still have control of around 5,000 fighters, and they were able to orchestrate a very sophisticated attack in another country, potentially with a multinational group of terrorists. If true that could imply the capacity to do the same in some locations in the West.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/22/world/...baab-analysis/

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Al-Shabaab has threatened revenge on Kenya ever since Kenyan forces entered Somalia.

Mall attack shows Al-Shabaab has taken its ability to strike outside Somalia to a new level.

The operation meets criteria that al Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri listed in a recent message.

Al-Shabaab allies in region include Kenyan militant group al Hijra and Eritrean government.

After years of infighting and feuds, the Nairobi attack may also confirm the ascendancy of Al-Shabaab's most militant faction and its leader Mukhtar Abu al Zubayr (aka Ahmed Abdi Godane). Zubayr attended a madrassa in Pakistan as a young man and merged the group with al Qaeda in February 2012. He sees Al-Shabaab as part of al Qaeda's global jihad.

Dissenters have defected or been killed. Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys of Al-Shabaab's old guard surrendered to Somali authorities.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/kenya-...ry?id=20336438

During Congressional testimony in January 2012, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper listed al-Shabaab as one of the most significant terror threats to the homeland, in part due to a "foreign fighter cadre that includes U.S. passport holders... [who] may have aspirations to attack inside the United States."

However, a senior law enforcement official said the latest U.S. government analysis shows no heightened threat to the U.S. as a result of the Kenya attack. While al-Shabaab does have a desire to strike at Western targets in Africa, hitting the U.S. homeland is "not a priority" for them, the official said.

No predictions from me on this one, we'll see where this goes over the next few months.

[davidbfpo]

Some rare footage from Kismayo from the BBC. Curiously the reporter was with troops from Sierra Leone, not Kenya. The film ends with pictures of the charcoal trade:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24195852

I noted the refugee / displaced persons camps were without any aid agency presence.

On the parallel thread 'Mumbai-style attack in Kenya' Bill M. referred to Al-Shabaab holding large swathes of Somali territory - as indicated by the map n the BBC report, but one has to ask how many Somalis actually live in territory controlled by Al-Shabaab today? My own suspicion from faraway is that very few do; anyone who can leave has, invariably to the camps around those cities controlled by ANISOM.

[ganulv]

Yesterday The Guardian published an editorial penned by Giles Foden in regards to the Westgate attack [link]. I feel that Foden has a lot more to say here than “food not bombs.” Others of course may disagree.

[…]

These attacks are part of a spectrum of banditry, with corruption at one end, terrorism at the other, and regular robbery in the middle. Some Kenyans will feel that the conditions in which the attacks have happened have arisen because of economic growth in a vacuum of governance. Money that should have been spent on security and other aspects of national infrastructure has been disappearing for generations.

[…]