Bill,
You are absolutely correct.
In the modern context, the States' (Nation) authoritarian and might can hardly be challenged with resistance, armed or otherwise. It will be ruthlessly put down. Sri Lanka crushing the LTTE is a live and modern example of the State's might. And to a lesser extent, the problem in Chechnya.
Why did the Hungarian uprising of 1956 not succeeded?
These matters will never be in the public domain and it will he naive to believe it will be. However, if there is foreign influence and that too from an unchallenged global power, 'peoples' uprising' can effect a change. East Europe is an example. The Catholic Pope played his role as the benign 'cover'.
The same Church that lay low when the Jews were being exterminated by Hitler! Political handmaidens can come from strange sectors!
As far as the Arab Spring catching the US by surprise, maybe this can help that it was no surprise (that is why I say that if one has to keep an unbiased attitude one should Google the views and not only subscribe to those who support one's own favourite hobby horse):
http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/0...ushing-defeat/
Anyone who is aware of the NGOs and their funding are aware that they also are encouraged to 'assist the viewpoint' of those funding. Nothing is altruistic and it is not a falsehood that there is nothing called a Free Lunch.
Even our pro US PM who has never said a word against the US (he told Bush India loves you Mr Bush! [when the non European world was seething will anger]), was forced to state that US funded religious NGOs were behind the ruckus over the Russian Nuclear power plant being commissioned in Tamilnadu.
In many countries the US Peace Corps was accused of spying. Nothing surprising. There is nothing called a Free Lunch.
Even the Aid given to poor countries are not without strings. See the state of Pakistan. They blow hot, but then they eat crow!
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