Shift on Syrian Constitution Could Help Assad Survive
https://shar.es/1dxSX9
A new Russian-American plan would abandon support for a nationally-drafted constitution and all but rule out a true transitional period.
.In late March, US Secretary of State John Kerry announced while meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow that the US and Russia would work together to draft a new constitution for Syria with an August deadline. No further official information has been given about this plan, but the timing of the announcement and deadline marks a shift in the terms of the Syria peace talks – namely, that a true transitional period might no longer be endorsed by the international powers involved in the conflict.
As the International Syria Support Group (ISSG), co-chaired by the US and Russia, meets again in Vienna, this makes it even more likely that President Bashar al-Assad would remain part of any new Syrian government.Previously, negotiations over a new constitution were not meant to start until agreement on a transitional government had been reached. Since the 2012 Geneva communique, the implied sequence for a peace settlement had been that an inclusive transitional governing body with full executive powers would be formed, followed by a review of the constitutional order and legal system on the basis of a national dialogue process.
This was affirmed in the ISSG’s November 2015 Vienna communique and a month later in UN Security Council Resolution 2254.The main sticking point about a peace settlement between the war’s external parties had been whether Assad could remain during a transitional period, not (at least ostensibly) on whether or not that transitional period would ever occur. Following Kerry’s Moscow announcement, a well-placed source claims that White House Advisor Robert Malley and Russian Presidential Envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev are meeting privately in Switzerland to hammer out a draft new constitution based on a document authored in Damascus and then submitted to the Russians. Meanwhile, the Geneva Syrian peace talks which most recently concluded on 27 April have made no progress on agreeing the terms and timeframe for establishing a transitional government.
Constitutional principles a key requirement for a new Syrian government or governing body to be authentically ‘transitional’ is for it to have the mandate to oversee a constitutional review process through which a national reassessment of Syria’s governance and social contract can occur.
If a Russian-American drafted constitution is put on the table at Syrian peace talks later this year, it will mean that this defining element of a post-settlement transitional process is effectively no longer endorsed by the international backers on either side of this civil war.
Adopting a new constitution does not on its own equate to a transition having occurred. In fact, within the war’s first year a new Syrian constitution was drafted in Damascus and approved in a referendum with nearly 90 per cent of the vote.
Not only are there many criticisms of that referendum’s legitimacy, but the war’s subsequent escalation and continuation demonstrate that a new constitution was by no means a transition.The opposition has also argued after Kerry’s March announcement that discussion of a constitution is premature. High Negotiations Committee spokesman Salem Muslat affirmed in April that ‘the real agenda should start with the fully-empowered transitional governing authority and discussion of Assad’s role. Discussion of the constitution comes later.’
Rather, Muslat maintained, a future transitional authority would call for a general national conference. At this conference, a constituent assembly would be formed and tasked with drafting a new constitution. Others have proposed an alternative plan whereby once a transitional governing body is agreed, an international resolution would set out constitutional principles – not a new constitution – that would provide legitimacy and a legislative framework for the transitional period.Redefining transitional governanceIf the international powers involved in Syria’s war have moved away from endorsing the constitutional review element of a transitional process, this is yet another signal that the ISSG’s approach to a settlement for Syria is increasingly resembling the regime’s position on the issue.
As others have pointed out, the UN mediator’s summary of the latest round of Syrian talks implies that the institution of the presidency would continue during the transitional period. This effectively means that Bashar al-Assad would remain president during at least part of a transitional period, as US and UK leaders have also hinted at over the last year.
The well-placed source from the Switzerland talks also alleges that mediators are considering the creation of presidential deputy posts to be filled from among the opposition and allocated on a sectarian basis, serving under President Assad – i.e. a version of a national unity government.The provisions contained in this draft constitution indicate that the president would be elected by parliament and that only Syrians residing in the country, who are more likely to be pro-regime, could vote for parliamentary representatives, according to the same source.
This would mean that millions of refugees, who are more likely to be anti-regime, would not have a say in the election of the president.The anti-regime regional powers, primarily Turkey and Saudi Arabia, who previously had been pushing back on this sort of shift are increasingly tied up with other regional conflicts that have escalated in the last year.
Meanwhile, the upcoming American presidential elections could be a strong incentive for the White House to push for demonstrating some sort of achievement in Syria by the autumn. Redefining ‘transitional governance’ and pushing through a new constitution could serve this purpose in their eyes, particularly if regional powers are persuaded to concurrently reduce their support to the warring parties within Syria. However, abandoning the plan for a new constitution to be drafted, not just voted on, by means of a national process is likely to leave millions of Syrians at home and abroad believing that the conflict has not been resolved
YET this is the daily ground reality and not a single word is said by either Kerry and or the Obama WH......
Two kids pulled alive from rubble, one still clutching her doll, after an airstrike on rebel-held area in Syria.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=vDahN6tv1dA&feature=youtu.be …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-26-2016 at 07:11 AM.
Russian Naval Express on the move......
ВМФ #ЧФ BSF Pytlivy 868 departed the Black Sea 06:30Z & transits southbound Bosphorus en route to the Mediterranean
ВМФ #ЧФ BSF Pytlivy pennant number recently was changed from 808 to 868.
Russian sailors are in their blue hot weather uniforms with pilotka hats on #ВМФ Pytlivy. Note the sniper aft ship
This is the direct result of a total lack of any national level strategic strategy by this Obama WH for Syria, IS and the ME in general other than a full scale tilt towards Iran and Russia as the regional hegemons invalidating 70 odd years of US ME FP....
YET this is the daily Syrian ground reality and not a single word is said by either Kerry and or the Obama WH......or anything from his personal "spin doctor Rhodes"...not sure just what he would "spin anyway".....
Two kids pulled alive from rubble, one still clutching her doll, after an Russian/Assad airstrike on rebel-held area in Syria.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=vDahN6tv1dA&feature=youtu.be …
BTW.....reference the Syrian CD unit working in this video...their leader was to receive a major humanitarian award for their efforts for working to save ALL Syrians and yet the Obama Homeland Security detained and sent him back AFTER the US DoS issued a valid entry visa to him...explain that one to anyone in the ME...that is just how bad the failures of the Obama WH have become....
BTW....the Syrian CD White Hats have been repeatedly and deliberately hit with Russian and Assad "double tap" air strikes......on first responders...AND not much was said by the Obama WH unless it made the US MSM.....and they were forced to say something.
Seems twitter is again suspending accounts making fun of #Russia n regime. .@SovietSergey & .@AmbYakovenkoNot down https://twitter.com/RusEmbassyNot/st...20039638188032 …
No issues between the EU and Russia that can't be resolved, Putin says in an article for Greek newspaper.
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51997 …
BUT WAIT there are some small things like the military annexation and changing borders ie Crimea and eastern Ukraine and the massive killing via air strikes of Syrian civilians via bombing of residential areas, hospitals, critical civilian infrastructure and the supporting of Assad's use of CW and starvation....
BUT hey we can at least talk about the problems for the next 50 odd years or so......
BUT WAIT then this appears.......
Russia shops tank for urban warfare. Also, cannon for destroying tanks.
http://sputniknews.com/military/2016...fare-tank.html …
BUT WAIT...this is the lessons learned after two years of eastern Ukraine and now Syria.......
Maintaining a dialogue with Putin plays right into his hands
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...6#.V0afyidXeK3 …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-26-2016 at 07:47 AM.
Just as the Iraqi Shia militias are fighting in Syria against FSA and not really against IS...SO are the Afghans.....
BUT WAIT now the Afghan mercenaries are also fighting in Iraq.....no wonder no one is fighting IS inside Iraq....they are all in Syria right now.....
Iran announced the deaths of 7 Afghans in #Aleppo and one Iranian in #Fallujah.
NOW we seem to have a global Afghan Shia jihadi mercenary army ..........hard at work defending Iranian hegemon interests and not fighting the Taliban/AQ/IS in AFG......
Under the rubric of "to much vodka"......
Russian UN envoy #Churkin names Turkish companies helping I.S make bombs
Not really sure IS needs anyone's help in building IEDs.....they are right now the world's best at it by far.....
BUT WAIT...he forgot to mention that it was Iran that built the parts needed for KH and other Iranian Shia militias using EFPs against US troops in Iraq.....
Just a second: do you seriously expect the USA and Russia to write a constitution for Syria which would empower 'the people'?Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
I think the authors might want to find themselves some sources within Saudi armed forces. Namely:
...which is exactly what the Saudis and allies are doing in Yemen already. Considering much simplier terrain and certain presence of much larger numbers of potential allies in Syria... where's actually the problem?Additionally there are immense difficulties for Saudi and Turkish troops once they have established a presence in country. Coordinating military operations with the various competing militias and their competing military goals is destined to lead to confusion and potential cross purposes. There would need to be direct external military control over all groups operating in the area.
...like there were such calls from Saudi Arabia over Yemen?Furthermore if Turkish-Saudi led forces begin to sustain casualties, there will be an inevitable domestic call for strategic clarity and a victory that may be difficult to achieve. Consequently, mission creep could very quickly take over, in which Saudi Arabia and Turkey become bogged down in the Syrian quagmire simply so they do not lose face.
...thanks to all the ignorance by an entire host of closest Turkish allies, starting with the USA and NATO.In truth, there are no longer good options on the table for Turkey.
Can easily become a reason for Erdo to 'flip out' i.e. at least get 'fed up' of the West - and decide to go into Syria in cooperation with Saudis.
The question is therefore: is this the Turkish point of view...? Or a private opinion of the authors? Perhaps their recommendation to the Turkish government?
What a surprise...Military escalation is fraught with risk, but the price of doing nothing has also laden Turkey with unbearable security risks, both internal and external. It is difficult to see how Ankara can stand by and do nothing for much longer.
Why should that be of any importance?But the operation would have to take place under the watchful gaze of the U.S. although unlike the Yemen operations, in which U.S. and U.K. personnel sit in the coalition command and operations room assisting with targeting and strike coordination, it is doubtful that any military operations in Syria that do not target Daesh would receive any assistance.
The USA have meanwhile made its position re. Syria more than crystal clear. If the US doesn't want to do anything there (except for all the empty babblign), this doesn't mean nobody else can do so.
If nothing else, the experience of Yemen has shown that one can run such an op in an even more complex environment - and then with - essentially - air power and 40,000 'boots on the ground' alone (and that vs an Army that is actually in much better condition than Assadist, IRGC's and Daesh's gangs - combined).Given Washington’s lacklustre attitude, both Ankara and Riyadh would have to weigh up the implications of operating without U.S. support in a highly complex theatre, which lessens the attractiveness of longer term military deployment.
Given many more 'boots on the ground' are already available in Syria (no matter how much ignored by the West), things would only be much simplier.
Anti-#Assad sheep, I guess?!
1 person, 5 sheep killed, several people injured.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LAEoeXR5gI …
Damascus #Syria Assad targeting #Daraya w/ intense artillery & mortar shelling & rocket fire, infantry & tanks attempting to advance again
Reports from yesterday of clashes between pro-Assad Quds Brigade & Iraqi Shia militias at Nayrab camp in rural #Aleppo
Several civilians killed by Assad artillery shelling on Castello Road in #Aleppo earlier today as well
@SyriaCivilDef pulling civilians from under the rubble after an Assad barrel bomb attack on Anadan #Aleppo today
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-26-2016 at 01:46 PM.
Reports also from yesterday that #ISIS military chief Abu Athir al-Jazrawi has defected & joined Nusra
Assad airstrike w/ cluster munitions targeted a sheep market in Saraqeb, #Idlib today, several dead & many wounded
Footage
The coward #Assad air force bombed a sheep market near #Saraqib in #Idlib province.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHVRUOpXaEE …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-26-2016 at 02:14 PM.
8 Afghans of #IRGC's Fatemiun brigade killed in Khan Touman, southern Aleppo, Syria, buried in Mashhad, Iran.
Syria 40+ barrel bombs hit northern #Aleppo suburbs today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwI5HBiB6fA …
Rebels thwarted night attempt by Regime militias to reach Banayoun from Tamurah & Zahraa w/ huge shelling. N.#Aleppo
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-26-2016 at 02:02 PM.
US National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) labelled the #YPG the #Syria wing of the *designated* #PKK in 2014:
Defected #US-Delta Forces with patches of communist #YPG militia
But now #Chuck_Norris arrived in #Syria
US special forces in #YPG uniforms were pictured close to the Tishrin dam in #Syria's #Aleppo province.
When you think, you've seen it all ...
@USArmy soldiers with #YPG insignia north of #Raqqa in #Syria.
US Special Forces in north of #Raqqa near #Fatissa village #Syria
U.S. troops in northern #Syria are wearing Kurdish YPG patches. What you just heard was Erdogan's head exploding.
Syria 5000 Sunni arabs among #SDF but 30.000 kurdish #YPG-fighters
Without Arab tribes in #Raqqa the offensive on "#IS-capital" will fail
BUT WAIT......YPG/SDF and US SOF still have not been able to move much at all against IS.....
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-26-2016 at 02:06 PM.
BreakingFootage GRAPHIC!
#Assad air strikes on #Aleppo city kills at least one person.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7x-JHd3Rzg …
The calm before the storm?
Lavrov says "Syrian opposition had enough time to leave Jabhat al-Nusra areas" ...
And again: The #CoH agreement does NOT define "Nusra areas" or "opposition areas".
Nusra may be hit, not entire tracts of land.
@GermanyDiplo votes #Israel the only "violator of (...) health" at the WHO.
#Assad or the #KSA,bombing hospitals,were not at choice.
Panorama pic
#Huraytan under intense #Assad / Iranian regimes artillery attack today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6mJIe70IUM …
Footage
#Assad regime Mil Mi-8 heli drops bombs on civilians in #Anadan today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Odg9VSTQBeA …
Footage
Rescue operation after #Assad regime air strikes on #Anadan N-W of #Aleppo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OejdjlwqYqU …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-26-2016 at 02:16 PM.
Have there been any other cases of US troops re-badging themselves as communist militia?
Gents they're not 'blending in'. They have Kurdish patches but everything else 'signature' US kit
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-26-2016 at 02:32 PM.
Syrian Rebels exchange 45 dead regime fighters for 10 women & 5 children Assad regime kidnapped. Some "government"
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