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Thread: Possible Chemical Attack in Iraq

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    Default Possible Chemical Attack in Iraq

    It is unclear if this is an accident or a deliberate attack, but I would lean towards deliberate. Once the dust settles we'll see exactly what this was and perhaps what it means. There are a number of potential industrial chemicals such as chlorine that terrorists can use a weapon. Chlorine is one chemical that has been used ineffectively several times by several groups. These guys got it right, or they just got lucky.

    http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/...ain/index.html

    BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- A cloud of deadly toxic gas engulfed an Iraqi town Tuesday, killing six people and leaving dozens of others choking on fumes after a tanker carrying chlorine exploded outside a restaurant.

    An Iraqi Interior Ministry official said the blast in the town of Taji, 12 miles (20 km) north of Baghdad, was caused by a bomb on board the tanker.

    There were contrasting figures on the casualty toll. Baghdad security plan spokesman Gen. Qassim Atta told state-run al-Iraqiya TV that five people died in the blast and 148 were poisoned by the gas.

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    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    This vaguely reminded me of this story from back in 2003.
    Last edited by Bill Moore; 02-21-2007 at 01:26 AM.

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    Default Only one parallel

    The only parallel I see is both are chemical weapons, and while the press sensationalized the lethality of this bomb (pardon me for being a doubting Thomas that this bomb could have killed thousands), the reality is most of these weapons fail, which is why we haven't seen too many successful attacks outside of the one in Iraq recently and of course the infamous subway attack in Tokyo (more a failure than success).

    I think the USG ignored the story because they would have presented a problem they don't have an answer for. None the less it sounds like many law enforcement agencies and officers missed a well deserved public thanks for this one.

    I'm going to also post your link in the discussion about gangs. Great post, much thanks, Bill

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    Council Member 120mm's Avatar
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    The problem with WMD, is that the .gov has been hysterically overstating the effects of WMD for so long in order to get people to take it seriously, that even official agencies believe their own bull####.

    Chemical weapons are not used very often, because they are generally not very useful. Those that are extremely lethal are extremely fragile and have to be applied directly into the area you want to affect (such as the Tokyo subway). The ones that are not fragile are not very lethal, and you have to be pretty dumb to get "slimed" by them.

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    Default Generally true

    120mm's statements are correct, but there are specific conditions and freak circumstances (although rare) where chemical attacks and accidents have had a WMD effect.

    Estimated 5,000 killed and several thousand wounded in the Halabja chemical attack (1988)

    Bhopal, India: 1983 approximately 3,000 killed, and several thousand injured/sick after industrial chemical leak.

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    Default In General, True

    We have confiscated French files complete with jpegs on eight various chemical IEDs produced for al-Qaida trainees. I have already translated most of them and will send them to anybody interested. They are large files.

    Number 6 is exactly what recently ocurred and 120 is dead on the money. Chlorine based IEDs are stable, product easy to procure and even easier to employ, but in order to affect enough people, it's going to be huge and you will have more than enough time as a trained soldier to get out of harm's way or simple dawn your gas mask. The average adult male would need to receive a dose of 19000mg/m3/min. in order for the situation to become fatal.

    That's a Sierra load of chlorine folks !

    120 said it in plain terms:
    The ones that are not fragile are not very lethal, and you have to be pretty dumb to get "slimed" by them.
    The smaller more lethal bio or chemical IEDs have a max effective range of 2 to 4 meters and disperse too quickly to produce desired casualties. al-Qaida used French and Russian practice grenades to accomplish the job.

    Regards, Stan

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    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    According to NYTIMES, this is the third such attack in the last month. A new tactic?

    A pickup truck carrying canisters of the gas, which burns the skin and can be fatal after only a few concentrated breaths, exploded near a diesel-fuel station in southwestern Baghdad, killing at least 5 people and sending another 75 to hospitals, wheezing and coughing, for treatment, Interior Ministry and medical officials said.

    On Tuesday, a tanker truck filled with chlorine exploded north of Baghdad, killing 9 people and wounding 148, including 42 women and 52 children.

    At least one other attack with chlorine occurred on Jan. 28 in the Sunni-dominated province of Anbar, according to American military statements. Sixteen people died after a dump truck with explosives and a chlorine tank blew up in Ramadi.

    The attacks had the potential to be much deadlier, but seem to have been poorly executed, burning much of the chemical agent rather than spreading it. Still, Iraqi and American officials condemned the attacks as an effort to bring a new level of fear and havoc to Iraq as a new security plan for Baghdad takes shape.

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    Default Intentions are clear

    No argument on the amount of chlorine required for a lethal doze, but at the risk of sounding flippant, practice makes perfect, and our foes are obviously practicing. Now that they got the formula correct after several false starts, it is relatively simple manner of increasing the size, and since this is readily available information I'll go ahead and say it. Using a larger such device in a crowded area where a rapid escape routes are limited (imagine more than one device to hit folks on the escape route) in the right climatic conditions will produce a much larger number of casualties, so instead of wishing a problem away, our guys need to be leaning forward with the appropriate defensive plans. The intentions of the terrorists are quite clear.


    http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/...ain/index.html

    Toxic gas kills 2
    Toxic gas killed Iraqi civilians for the second time in two days.

    A car bomb laced with poisonous gas exploded near a hospital in southwestern Baghdad's Bayaa neighborhood Wednesday, killing two civilians and wounding seven others.

    Twenty-three other civilians were hospitalized with respiratory problems caused from the noxious gases.

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    Along these lines, for those with an interest, I recommend attending the one day seminar Chemical Agents of Opportunity for Terrorism: The Medical and Psychological Consequences of Toxic Industrial Chemicals (TICs) and Toxic Industrial Materials (TIMs). Although there isn't one scheduled at the moment, check the TrainEx website for updates.

    Although the content is generally geared for responders, I attended an earlier version almost two years ago, and there was a lot of spirited professional discussion on likely methods of compromise of the materials and likely dissemination methods (often vs the "ideal" dissemination scenario). Anyone who already has a solid baseline of knowledge and experience with threat TTPs will certainly get a lot out of it. Time well spent.

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    Council Member 120mm's Avatar
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    As chemical attacks are supposedly antithethical to Islamic Law, will this have a "spring-back" effect? But then, Jihad against Christians and Jews is also prohibited by the Q'uran, but that hasn't stopped them, yet....

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    Suicide is expressly forbidden, but fanatics generally find whatever they want to in holy texts, regardless of what is actually written.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tequila View Post
    According to NYTIMES, this is the third such attack in the last month. A new tactic?
    I don't know that I'd call it a new tactic, although it is certainly an emerging trend. I've gotten a couple of briefs noting previous attempts. My guess is that the 'dirty' nature of the previous attempts didn't make the news because they were even more unsuccessful than these.

    Effective dispersal is still the big problem that they have to overcome.
    - erp -

    Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito - Yield not to misfortunes, but advance all the more boldly against them. - Virgil

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    Default Chlorine used in attacks

    Thanks for the post, Anlaochfhile !

    It was at least the third truck bomb in a month to employ chlorine, a greenish gas also used in World War I, which burns the skin and can be fatal after only a few concentrated breaths. The bomb killed at least two people and injured 32 others, police and medical officials said.
    This is a sad case, we all know how easy it is to obtain chlorine, even at the local supermarket. They needed more. We should be looking at this, it's typical:

    http://www.eurochlor.org/europeanchlorineindustry

    More than 85% of all pharmaceuticals and more than half the products of the chemical industry depend on chlorine chemistry. These products are used in most industrial and economic sectors. European chlorine producers manufacture around 10 million tonnes of virgin chlorine each year. The capacity for the region is currently about 12 million tonnes. More than a third is recycled - mainly as hydrochloric acid - and re-used within the production plants. Fifty-five percent of Europe's overall chemical production is directly or indirectly dependent on chlorine.

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    Here in the US, it is rail shipments of chlorine that have been looked at closely. Back in '05, DC banned such shipments from coming any closer than 2.2 miles to the nation's capital. However, CSX immediately sued the city, and the ban has been put on hold until the legal wrangling is over. There are a few other cities that have enacted similar bans, and both city goverments and the cargo rail industry and watching for the final fall-out of this case.

    A truly effective ban is problematic because not only do railways snake through major metropolitan areas, but many of those chlorine shipments are destined for those areas.

    Luckily, most people here in the US do not realize how bad rail security really is. And I'm not just talking about the long lines of track transiting open country - yard security is a huge problem as well. Because of high-profile incidents that have occurred world-wide, it is understandable that the bulk of rail security resources have been funneled towards the passenger rail sector. However, cargo rail is huge, inviting target that offers a path for a variety of large devices into most of our major cities. Drug and people smugglers, homeless vagrants, and the various companies' railroad police themselves are all very aware of the vulnerabilities. But it is nowhere near being addressed.
    Last edited by Jedburgh; 02-22-2007 at 11:17 PM.

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    The same problem is in other coutries. For example , in 2005 polish military magazine "Komandos" published article about possibe terroristic strike in Wroclaw [I study there]. In this scenario, RPG-7 would be fired to train carring chlorine. 180 tons of chlorine would cause death of about 40.000 people.
    It is also possible that chemical plants can be attacked to achieve similar effect but, trains are easier targets.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tequila View Post
    Suicide is expressly forbidden, but fanatics generally find whatever they want to in holy texts, regardless of what is actually written.
    Actually, there is difference in opinions in jihadi world on that one. It’s not that clear cut. There are many fatwas out here explaining and justifying “martyr operations”.

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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Default Fatwas

    Hey Sarajevo !
    "Dealing subtle points of interpretation of the fiqh, as well as various mundane matters."

    That's like opening Pandoras Box and leaving it that way. What a judicial system.

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    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarajevo071 View Post
    Actually, there is difference in opinions in jihadi world on that one. It’s not that clear cut. There are many fatwas out here explaining and justifying “martyr operations”.
    Sarajevo, I'm well aware. Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who I would certainly not characterize as a jihadi, propagates a well-worn version on his website here.

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    Default Hi Stan, tequila

    I am not sure but I think everything started with war in Chechnya and they need for such operations and religious justifications. I believe that came to them with Arab (wahabi, salafi) volunteers (same like in Afghanistan or even in Iraq now). Majority of Sunnis are not like that and they have big issues with sacrificing life that way or attacking civilians. At least that was before.

    But then again, I could be wrong here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tequila View Post
    Sarajevo, I'm well aware. Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who I would certainly not characterize as a jihadi, propagates a well-worn version on his website here.
    And then this:

    Sheikh Yusuf Al-Qaradawi Condemns Attacks Against Civilians: Forbidden in Islam - here
    Last edited by Sarajevo071; 02-23-2007 at 06:13 PM.

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