Energy Security

[Bill Moore]

Hasn't it always been in contention since Churchill and Fisher decided to replace coal with oil as the British fleet's fuel? There has always been contention about oil security. As I pointed out upthread, there are more reserves now than ever. Nevertheless, I do remember when China was a net exporter of oil, now it is a net importer.

True, but the question is regardless of there being more reserves now than never, does that keep pace with the growing demand? The point that oil has always been contentious I believe reinforces the point about why we need to be concerned about it. More players with the rise of the rest competing for secure supplies, and it is this new great game that is driving a new geopolitical map consisting of new alliances and tension points, where states bid for influence either through coercion or attempts to bribe secure access to oil fields or secure pipelines/seaways to allow for the transport of it.

I think we're seeing a shift away from wars of ideology back to wars over resources and markets. Once again we're going back to the future.

[Misifus]

True, but the question is regardless of there being more reserves now than never, does that keep pace with the growing demand? The point that oil has always been contentious I believe reinforces the point about why we need to be concerned about it. More players with the rise of the rest competing for secure supplies, and it is this new great game that is driving a new geopolitical map consisting of new alliances and tension points, where states bid for influence either through coercion or attempts to bribe secure access to oil fields or secure pipelines/seaways to allow for the transport of it.

I think we're seeing a shift away from wars of ideology back to wars over resources and markets. Once again we're going back to the future.

Well Bill of course. But that has always been in the game, yet we still always have had the oil to meet the demands. In fact if we are to believe what Peak Oil'ers have been saying, we now have a glut of oil. So right now the Peak Oil logic is that we have too much oil but that we are running out. Huh?

We covered this already upthread. We have been running out of oil since it was discovered. That however does not mean it has peaked.

Okay guys, I gotta go now.

[Rick M]

Misifus,
You said, "we still always have had the oil to meet the demands."

True, but that is what PO is all about: if oil is finite (and you thankfully accept that it is), then despite 153 years of ever-increasing commercial supply (which surely shapes our ongoing expectations) we must accept that we will inevitably reach a point in human history when we no longer have sufficient supply to meet demand.
At that point (as Dr. Hirsch's PO study stresses) humanity will face "an unprecedented risk management problem."

[Rick M]

Misifus,

Perhaps you can provide an explanation for this recent and rather bleak prognosis from ND-DMR regarding future shale oil production:
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/pipeline/asse...11-10-2011.pdf

My sense was that almost everyone expected significant, sustained production increases at least throughout this decade.
But slide #3 shows production declining around 2015, and never reaching the 1 mbpd that so many people expected.

Any thoughts as to what's caused the sudden (and rather significant) change in expectations?

[Rick M]

Where is Misifus when we need him?

I'd like to know why the forecast for ND/Bakken shale oil has suddenly turned so pessimistic.
Given the importance of shale oil to the recent reversal of declining US oil production, this is a fairly significant question.

[Ken White]

IIRC, he wrote a couple of weeks ago that he had to go back to the field / area where he was working and would be back to post in a few weeks...

ADDED:

Yep; he posted this last week:

Actually I have only been here the last few days because I have been off. Will back to work soon and then y'all can be merry again without me At least until the next break

[Rick M]

Thanks, Ken

We'll just have to wait until he returns and see if he can shed some light on what's going on in ND.

Meanwhile, there is some compelling video evidence from ND which supports many of the animal & human health concerns which have recently been raised in PA.
If readers can tolerate the first 40 seconds of noisy music, the rest of the video is worth watching. Sick cattle, congested cats, human rashes, weird white stuff on walls & floors... surely something is not right:
http://www.youtube.com/user/BakkenWa.../9/850VKyFnxIk

I find it hard to believe that so many rural citizens in various states have simply made all this stuff up.