China's Emergence as a Superpower (till 2014)

[Backwards Observer]

3. Rick Santorum hopes for war with China

Gaffe: "You know, Mitt, I don't want to go to a trade war, I want to beat China. I want to go to war with China and make America the most attractive place in the world to do business."

2012 GOP race: 6 biggest foreign policy gaffes - The Week - Nov 3, 2011.

it's funny 'cause it's true

[Backwards Observer]

US Lawmaker addresses China Israel Bilateral Trade:

[no recent statements]

...

Israel and China - Exports and Imports

Israeli export to China reflects its relevant advantages: Agro-technology such as drip irrigation, seeds, green houses, has been one of the first fields, where Israeli companies have managed to use their unique technologies and know-how. In other fields such as telecommunication, software and medical equipment, Israeli companies have managed to penetrate and even dominate some niches. The Israeli companies usually offer advanced though simple products and technologies which are much more suitable for the Chinese market.

While Israel and China's trade relations reached their hights in 2007, the relations coudn't avoid the down turns of the financial crisis. In 2009, bilateral trade have sunk by 17% yoy to levels of US$4.56 billion. Israel's trade deficit has shrank as well by 16% to US$2.47 billion. Exports reached US$1.04 billion while imports narrowed to US$3.52 billion.

However, Israel and China's trade relations have experienced a tremendous recovery in 2010 as trade levels reached US$6.7 at year end, a 44% growth yoy. Israel's Trade deficit to China at the end of 2010 stands on US$2.6 billion as imports reached US$4.7 billion and export reached US$2.1 billion.

Trade Mission to China - Embassy of Israel, Beijing.

[Backwards Observer]

New Greg 'Beowulf' Sheridan approved joint think tank report up at the no es borracho Lowy Institute Interpreter:

The term 'Indo-Pacific' has crept into the international relations vocabulary of late. Lowy Institute scholars have started adopting this term, and it appeared in Hillary Clinton's recent Foreign Policy essay on 'America's Pacific Century'.

It's also a conceptual building-block for a unique new report jointly produced by think tanks in Australia, India and the US, and released last Friday. Shared Goals, Converging Interests: A Plan for US-Australia-India Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific was produced by authors from the Lowy Institute, the Washington-based Heritage Foundation, and India's Observer Research Foundation.

India, US, Australia: Stronger Together - The Interpreter - Nov 7, 2011.

Special Bonus Link

you have my undivided attention

[Dayuhan]

Hillary Clinton sharing conceptual building blocks with the Heritage Foundation? How odd.

I wonder how the Japanese, the Koreans, and the ASEAN folks will feel about being left out of the summary.

[Backwards Observer]

I wonder how the Japanese, the Koreans, and the ASEAN folks will feel about being left out of the summary.

Frankly, I've never heard of these 'countries' you mention, and I doubt anyone else has either.

[Dayuhan]

Frankly, I've never heard of these 'countries' you mention, and I doubt anyone else has either.

You are qualified to serve as an Ambassador of the United States...

"You mean there are two Koreas?"

- U.S. ambassador designate to Singapore Richard Kneip, after being asked his opinion during congressional hearings on the North Korea-South Korea conflict (1993)

[Backwards Observer]

You are qualified to serve as an Ambassador of the United States...

Hot diggity dog! Jes let me grab mah golf clubs...

[davidbfpo]

After reviewing other threads on China in South Asia and the South China Sea dispute I came across this on the Lowry Institute's emailing; the commentary started on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, so posted in a seperate thread.

At the end is a stunning insight, what does SWC think? The author is an IISS analyst and has been in China studying the language for three years now, so may have passed the 'Ken White' how do you understand them test!

China is the world's foremost rising power and her influence will be felt wherever she pops up. As we sat down to a sumptuous meal around a large garlanded table after our discussion, our new Chinese friends gave us no sense of having really thought through the implications of what their newfound accidental influence means.

The impression was rather that China is stumbling onto power it does not want, and with which it doesn't know what to do.

Link:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...-its-role.aspx

[AdamG]

Beijing, Nov.10 (People's Daily Online) --India's defense ministry has already approved a 13-billion-U.S.-dollar military modernization plan and has decided to send an additional 100,000 soldiers to the China-India border areas over the next five years. This move is regarded as India's second phase of a military buildup along the China-India border.

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/7641109.html

[Ray]

Shambaugh and others wrote then that China had emerged from a long era of suspicion and insularity and had begun to join regional organizations, send peacekeepers to U.N. missions, and improve bilateral relations in the neighborhood. Yes, China's military was rapidly modernizing in ways that gave the Taiwanese a fright, but such signs of belligerence had been offset, Shambaugh concluded, by "bilateral and multilateral confidence-building measures."

But five years is a long time for a country growing, and changing, as rapidly as China. "Asian Alliances" argues, in effect, that China has now fully emerged from its defensive crouch. In recent years, China has developed a new generation of ballistic and cruise missiles, attack submarines, tactical and stealth aircraft, radar, and space-based intelligence, as well as an anti-satellite missile, which together give it the capacity to establish "contested zones" in air, sea, and space, and thus push the United States further and further out from regions of the Pacific that it has long patrolled and protected. And China's behavior in the neighborhood has turned markedly bellicose, aggressively pursuing its claim to islands in the South China Sea and sending its blue-water navy on long-range exercises off the Japanese coast.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...er_the_horizon

China’s massive infrastructure build-up in Tibet is causing concern to the government of India. Defence minister A K Antony has spoken in parliament of the rapid development of rail, road, airfield and telecom infrastructure and military camps being undertaken by the Chinese authorities in Tibet. He assured the MPs that ‘necessary steps’ were being taken to counter these developments.

Antony acknowledged that a road network stretching across 58,000 km coupled with five operational airfields at Gongar, Pangta, Linchi, Hoping and Gar Gunsa have come up in Tibet. Besides, extension of the Qinghai Tibet Railway (QTR) line to Xigaze and another line from Kashgar to Hotan in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region is also in progress.
Effectively controlling the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) is crucial for China’s security as Tibet comprises approximately one-fourth of China’s land mass.

http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/...-war-zone.html

[Ray]

As per military analysis China has the capability to deploy and sustain 34 divisions over a month along the Line of Actual Control.

China can do so by mustering troops from the Chegdu and Lanzou Military Region without having to carry out stocking or dumping in advance.

China has a distinct advantage over India when viewed against India's 09 Divisions along the Northern borders.

As a major upgrade, China is doing/done the following in Tibet and Xinjiang:

1. Connection with all major counties in Tibet with border roads completed. Road network increased from 51,000 kms in 2008 to 58,000 kms in 2010. Plan to increase black topped roads by another 70,000 kms is on the anvil.

2. Extension of Qinghai - Tibet Railway from Golmund to Lhasa and thereon to Shiagatse (close to Sikkim). Rail connectivity is planned to link Katmandu in Nepal, Myanmar, Bhutan , Pakistan and Central Asian Republics.

3. Eleven new rails lines are on the anvil for Tibet and Xinjiang for rapid deployment of the PLA.

4. 18 air bases in Tibet and Xinjiang have the capability to put India under the range of Sukhoi 27.

The infrastructure development along with building of logistic hubs at a rapid pace is worth note since it is far in excess of the requirement for the local population. It is a known fact that the PLA has built tunnels for storage of military hardware.

The fact that Pakistan is China's all weather friend and supplies military hardware to include J 17 is of serious concern to India. It maybe recalled that China has 1000 troops in POK to upgrade the Karakorum Highway and fast pace the link to Gwadar, Karachi and Bin Qassim. This will give 'strategic depth' ( at term not quite what it means in the military sense, but more in the political realm) as also permit China to control the Persian Gulf.

China's Dong Fang Electric Supply Corporation and the Pakistan Railways have signed the feasibility study contract on a Havelian - Khunjerab Pass rail link.

[Dayuhan]

It maybe recalled that China has 1000 troops in POK to upgrade the Karakorum Highway and fast pace the link to Gwadar, Karachi and Bin Qassim. This will give 'strategic depth' ( at term not quite what it means in the military sense, but more in the political realm) as also permit China to control the Persian Gulf.

That would give China a presence in the Indian Ocean, but I'm not sure that presence could be equated with control. They are certainly not the only party with such a presence.

Given that China now holds only 30 days worth of oil in strategic reserves, and that a huge portion of Chinese commerce passes through waters near India, could not India respond to aggression in the north by interdicting China-bound oil shipments from Angola and the Gulf, and outbound shipments of Chinese goods moving toward Europe, Africa, and the Middle East?

[Ray]

The first phase—located in Zhejiang's Zhoushan and Zhenhai, Liaoning's Dalian and Shandong's Huangdao—commenced operation in 2008. These four bases hold the equivalent of 30 days of China's oil imports.

The construction of the Duzishan oil base in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region started last September, marking the beginning of the second phase of China's strategic oil reserve plan. It's estimated China has by now completed construction of the Duzishan oil reserve base. The base is scheduled to start filling oil in the coming October. The second phase consists of eight oil reserve bases, located in cities include Guangdong's Zhanjiang and Huizhou, Gansu's Lanzhou, Jiangsu's Jintan, Liaoning's Jinzhou and Tianjin.

The last phase of China's strategic oil reserve plan is expected to be completed in 2020. Chongqing's Wanzhou district, Hainan Province and Hebei's Caofeidian are reportedly likely to be chosen as oil bases for the third phase.

Once the strategic oil reserve plan is finished, China will have oil reserves equalling about 100 days of net oil imports.

http://www.china.org.cn/business/201...t_20545379.htm

[Ray]

US does not fear China, says Obama

CANBERRA: President Barack Obama insisted on Wednesday that the United States does not fear China, even as he announced a new security agreement with Australia that is widely viewed as a response to Beijing's growing aggressiveness. ......

During his news conference with Gillard, Obama sidestepped questions about whether the security pact was aimed at containing China . But he said the US would keep sending a clear message that China needs to accept responsibilities that come with being a world power.

"It's important for them to play by the rules of the road," he said. And he insisted that the US is not fearful of China's rise. "I think the notion that we fear China is mistaken . The notion that we're looking to exclude China is mistaken," he said. ......

China was immediately leery of the prospect of an expanded US military presence in Australia. Foreign ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said on Wednesday that it was worth discussing whether the plan was in line with the common interests of the international community.

Obama national security aide Ben Rhodes said the agreement was not only appropriate , but also a response to the demand from nations in the region that have signaled they want the US to be present. The US and smaller Asian nations have grown increasingly concerned about China claiming dominion over vast areas of the Pacific that the US considers international waters, and reigniting old territorial disputes......

Rhodes said the US military boost would amount to a "sustained US presence"

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/w...w/10763444.cms

[davidbfpo]

Found via Lowy Institute mailing a Bulletin of Atomic Scientists briefing, which opens with:

Today, China is the only one of five original nuclear weapon states that is increasing its nuclear arsenal. According to some estimates, the country could “more than double” the number of warheads on missiles that could threaten the United States by the mid-2020s. Earlier this year, China published a defense white paper, which repeated its nuclear policies of maintaining a minimum deterrent with a no-first-use pledge. Yet China has yet to define what it means by a minimum deterrent posture. This, together with the fact that it is deploying four new nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, invites concern as to the scale and intention of China’s nuclear upgrade. The authors estimate that China has a total inventory of approximately 240 nuclear warheads.

Link:http://bos.sagepub.com/content/67/6/81.full

Having lived through the 'Cold War' and the superpowers massive nuclear arsenals the Chinese are hardly in the same league IMHO.

[Dayuhan]

The last phase of China's strategic oil reserve plan is expected to be completed in 2020. Chongqing's Wanzhou district, Hainan Province and Hebei's Caofeidian are reportedly likely to be chosen as oil bases for the third phase.

Once the strategic oil reserve plan is finished, China will have oil reserves equalling about 100 days of net oil imports.

http://www.china.org.cn/business/201...t_20545379.htm

100 days of imports at today's level, or 100 days at the level of imports expected in 2020... an expectation that could easily be inaccurate?

Even if this plan comes off as planned, China will still be vulnerable it disruption of both commodity imports and manufactured exports.

I'd expect a fair bit to happen in China by 2020. Their economy is looking more and more at risk, and they are not in a good position to handle a serious crash.

[Ray]

China tells navy to prepare for combat

Chinese President Hu Jintao has urged the country's navy to prepare for military combat and advance naval modernisation as part of efforts to safeguard world peace.

The navy should "accelerate its transformation and modernisation in a sturdy way, and make extended preparations for military combat in order to make greater contributions to safeguard national security and world peace", Hu said in a speech on Tuesday that comes amid US and regional concerns over China's naval ambitions.................

China, which publicly announced around 50 separate naval exercises in the seas off its coast over the past two years, usually after the event, says its military is only focused on defending the country's territory.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news...207-1ohm4.html

The various exercises carried out by navies around the South China Sea, the clashes therein earlier, the proactive 'cocking a snoot' at China by Vietnam and the explorations by foreign oil consortium in the SCS, seems to have irked China.

All these activities seem to have angered China to openly state and expose the real intent of rapid naval modernisation, till now cloaked with pacifist idiomatic flourishes.

For long, the Chinese Govt controlled media has been speculating of the US intent to 'encircle' China.

The 'Peaceful Rise of China' seems to have been adequate a soother to disarm other countries wherein China has been able to become a superpower in the making, near capable of challenging the position of the US as the sole superpower.

[AdamG]

Gonna need some reading music

[davidbfpo]

What I found of note was the timing, not the content.

One, the statement came into the public domain on the 7th December 2011, the anniversary of Pearl Harbour; a day likely to have a naval focus in the USA (although perhaps not the main target). I expect the actual speech was yesterday, but have not searched for the original reporting.

Second, as the BBC report:

Senior US and Chinese officials are currently holding talks on military issues. The one-day meeting takes place every year, with the stated aim of ensuring there are no misunderstandings between the two nations.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-16063607

[Ray]

Defensive Realism in the Indian Ocean: Oil, Sea Lanes and the Security Dilemma


http://www.chinasecurity.us/index.ph...d=304&Itemid=8

Dated but worth a read.