Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[Jedburgh]

IMINT & Analysis, 17 Aug 08: Russia, Georgia, & Disinformation

......misreporting and deliberate distortion of the facts by the worldwide media has led to a convoluted picture of the events that have taken place. The fact that so many of the most commonly reported news items can be disassembled piece by piece with a few minutes of research places doubts on the credibility and objectivity of these establishments. When dealing with Russia after the cessation of hostilities, it would be wise to remember that there is no evidence to suggest a preplanned and orchestrated campaign to allow Russia to invade South Ossetia and Georgia. Painting Russia as a resurgent Evil Empire is a sign of unsubstantiated bias and nothing more. After all, Russia did warn Georgia that escalation was possible, and Saakashvili chose to give them the excuse needed to ensure the integrity of South Ossetia, perhaps permanently. Arguing that Russia's methods were overkill is one thing, accusing them of trying to take over the Caucasus is another thing entirely.

[Ron Humphrey]

IMINT & Analysis, 17 Aug 08: Russia, Georgia, & Disinformation

OK, Let's see if I got this right.

Ralph Peter's baaad
Information war (Liar,Liar,everybody)
Georgia basically set Russia up by starting it then rolling over quickly and retreating so fast that the front Russian units ended up farther in then they were supposed to. And we know this because they didn't need to prep because they were already there and Georgia knew it so thats why
Ralph Peter's baaad

[Ken White]

Obviously he missed this gem; LINK. Seems to me about the only thing he got totally right was this; "Neither Georgia nor Russia are entirely without fault in the current conflict..."

I'd further say that if he believes this;"...When dealing with Russia after the cessation of hostilities, it would be wise to remember that there is no evidence to suggest a preplanned and orchestrated campaign to allow Russia to invade South Ossetia and Georgia."

I have a bridge for sale...

"...Arguing that Russia's methods were overkill is one thing, accusing them of trying to take over the Caucasus is another thing entirely."

Two bridges...

[Jedburgh]

.....Georgia basically set Russia up by starting it then rolling over quickly and retreating so fast that the front Russian units ended up farther in then they were supposed to. And we know this because they didn't need to prep because they were already there and Georgia knew it so thats why.....

I fail to see what part of that blog piece drove that conclusion.

The author stated pretty clearly that The South Ossetian separatists do appear to have been the primary instigators of the conflict...., and simply states that Georgia escalated the conflict in response. The author of this blog post apparently agrees with the premise put out immediately prior to the conflict in an EDM article that drawing the Russians in was the intent of the Ossetian separatists. At no point does the author state or imply that it was a Georgian "set-up". Although he also discusses several tangetial military issues, the focus of the author is attempting to debunk the belief that the Russian counter-invasion was extensively pre-planned prior to the outbreak of hostilities. In building that case, the author does not resort to creating a counter-conspiracy of Georgian manipulation of events.


As regards Ralph Peters, he long ago compromised integrity and credibility for by-lines and profit.

[Ron Humphrey]

I fail to see what part of that blog piece drove that conclusion.

The author stated pretty clearly that The South Ossetian separatists do appear to have been the primary instigators of the conflict...., and simply states that Georgia escalated the conflict in response. The author of this blog post apparently agrees with the premise put out immediately prior to the conflict in an EDM article that drawing the Russians in was the intent of the Ossetian separatists. At no point does the author state or imply that it was a Georgian "set-up". Although he also discusses several tangetial military issues, the focus of the author is attempting to debunk the belief that the Russian counter-invasion was extensively pre-planned prior to the outbreak of hostilities. In building that case, the author does not resort to creating a counter-conspiracy of Georgian manipulation of events.


As regards Ralph Peters, he long ago compromised integrity and credibility for by-lines and profit.

Wasn't anything near what he said, just sort of the type of mental gymnastics I had in trying to accept his points about the lack of Russian overall planning in this thing. It is certain that there is plenty of blame to go around but just out of curiousity what other excuse for continuing all the way into Georgia would Russia have had if as the premise is provided there was no plan to do so up front.

I leave the real analysis to those with much more info than I. Just trying to get the gist of it all for now

[Ron Humphrey]

After reading that I now am even more concerned about Russia's diplomacy.

If you know whats happening, you see it coming, you are supposed to be helping to settle it down, Then BLAM you have to send a major force with all associated air, land, sea, and cyber support not only to that little area but just happen to continue on into Georgia, etc???????

[Ken White]

...the focus of the author is attempting to debunk the belief that the Russian counter-invasion was extensively pre-planned prior to the outbreak of hostilities. In building that case, the author does not resort to creating a counter-conspiracy of Georgian manipulation of events.

I agree with the latter statement but with regard to the first one, I'm inclined to say not proven. All things are possible but given the time sequence and the conduct that can be ascertained from open sources plus known Russian TTP, I'd be pretty hard put to not say what I said earlier -- A FSB operation long planned and using a rehearsed and prepared military force as the instrument...

Still, too early to tell, really. We'll see.

[Render]

The Kashin class destroyer Smetlivy (edit for correction: shipspotting dot com has the Smetlivy in Sevestopol in May) and the Grisha class frigates Murumets and Aleksandrovets were in the Red Banner Northern fleet in May. In June those same three ships were in the Mediterranean. In August those same three ships joined the Slava class cruiser Moskva for naval operations off the Georgian coast.

Am I to believe that those three ships were on an apparently aimless world tour?

Am I expected to believe that the better part of two (Cossack) regiments of the 19th Motor Rifle Division were not in fact, the South Ossetian separatists themselves?

PUH
LEESE,
R