Iran: ally, friend or enemy? (2015 onwards)

[davidbfpo]

Yesterday's ISIS twin attacks in Tehran strongly indicate Iran has a problem, although this is not the first ISIS attack in country.

From an ICSR commentary by Charlie Winter:

In sum, this attack against Iran makes strategic sense for the Islamic State in the same way that attacking the United States on 9/11 made strategic sense to Usama bin Ladin.

In the next few days, people will be wondering where this operation came from. Even if the attackers turn out to be foreign nationals, they will have required extensive support from a local network to execute something like this.

Link:http://icsr.info/2017/06/icsr-insigh...-implications/

The Soufan Group's commentary appears to highlight the implications for the USA, following the strong "tilt" to Saudi Arabia and the official note of condolence had a barb within:

We underscore that states that sponsor terrorism risk falling victim to the evil they promote.

Link:http://www.soufangroup.com/tsg-intel...-strikes-iran/

[Azor]

Yesterday's ISIS twin attacks in Tehran strongly indicate Iran has a problem, although this is not the first ISIS attack in country.

From an ICSR commentary by Charlie Winter:
Link:http://icsr.info/2017/06/icsr-insigh...-implications/

The Soufan Group's commentary appears to highlight the implications for the USA, following the strong "tilt" to Saudi Arabia and the official note of condolence had a barb within:
Link:http://www.soufangroup.com/tsg-intel...-strikes-iran/

I'm curious if Daesh in Iran is a reconstitution of Jundallah, Ansar Al-Furqan or Jaish ul-Adl?

Much will depend on how those groups react and whether the plots are attributed to Iranian Arabs, Sunni Persians, Balochis, etc.

[AdamG]

Personal anxiety, or something larger?

TEHRAN, Iran – #An Iranian soldier opened fire on his colleagues, killing three and wounding 12 of them at a military air base in south Tehran, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported on Sunday.
The report said one of the victims was an officer and the two others were regular soldiers. It added that the assailant was killed in a shootout with other soldiers.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/08...port-says.html

[davidbfpo]

A short, balanced review article. It starts with:

Iran’s presence and involvement in the Gulf continues to impact security in the region. In a recent paper presentation, I argued that the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) regime has had a hand in security and insecurity concerns amongst its neighbors in the region, and beyond. This argument is conveyed through four examples concerning the Gulf, namely; the IRI’s involvement in the fight against DAISH, attempts (successful and otherwise) to achieve regional influence through and with Shia and Shia-aligned actors, the economic and strategic potential of Iran’s ‘re-entry’ into the global energy market, and the heightening international community’s concerns over the country’s nuclear program. Each of these four examples are taken in turn to convey just how much of a role Iran plays in Gulf security matters. Further, and perhaps most importantly, Tehran’s involvement in each of these matters is embedded in a pragmatic sense of ensuring the IRI regime’s survival.

Link:https://defenceindepth.co/2017/10/02...y-in-the-gulf/

[AdamG]

Reading music

Last night, a large number of aircraft were spotted leaving Iran with “no callsign, origin, or destination.” Strategic Sentinel, a DC-based firm that provides “nonpartisan international relations and national security analysis,” raised the prospect that the live flight radar data may suggest an “exodus,” is in progress.

http://www.digitalpoliticsdaily.com/...e-leaders-home

[CloseDanger]

They told me Iran turned off their ADS-B