North Korea: 2012-2016

[Tukhachevskii]

I have used the term humiliating climb down for both the US/ROK move of the naval exercise and the Japanese release of the Chinese fishing boat captain but would now like to borrow the word capitulation from the Al Jazeera piece.

Now we wait for the little matter of the Chinese demand for an apology and compensation to be resolved.

Sir, I agree with your usage of words like "humiliating" but only in the sense that I understand the deep resonance things like "face" and "shame" have in the Orient. But I think, though this may be a "victory" for china in the short term (whatever "victory" may mean in this case that is) that actually in the medium term it is Japan that comes up smelling of roses. Japan was yesterday's foe and China is what people are more worried about (esp. in ASEAN which was an AntiChiCom org to begin with). Vietnam, amongst other countries, will be reassenign their strategey and will move, more likely than not, to bandwagon with Japan, having seen this as another example of Chinese revanchism (which, of course the Chinese don't see that way, the ChiCom gocvernment and the majority Han that is, nod to Backwards Observer there). Japan, already allied to America, looks an awful lot more attractive given her pacifist stance these last few decades than does Red China. However, I also suspect that recent events have also been blown out of proportion even thogh the general direction of Asian politics seems to tend toward what I've described avbove, IMO.

[JMA]

Sir, I agree with your usage of words like "humiliating" but only in the sense that I understand the deep resonance things like "face" and "shame" have in the Orient.

Following on with the same train of thought you will then recognise the term death by a thousand cuts (which I have used before) as an ancient form of Chinese torture. This I submit is how China is flexing its muscles in the region and in the world. One "cut" at a time. Nothing to get worried about some will say but the progress will be sure... and by the time they wake up it will be too late.

But I think, though this may be a "victory" for china in the short term (whatever "victory" may mean in this case that is) that actually in the medium term it is Japan that comes up smelling of roses. Japan was yesterday's foe and China is what people are more worried about (esp. in ASEAN which was an AntiChiCom org to begin with). Vietnam, amongst other countries, will be reassenign their strategey and will move, more likely than not, to bandwagon with Japan, having seen this as another example of Chinese revanchism (which, of course the Chinese don't see that way, the ChiCom gocvernment and the majority Han that is, nod to Backwards Observer there). Japan, already allied to America, looks an awful lot more attractive given her pacifist stance these last few decades than does Red China. However, I also suspect that recent events have also been blown out of proportion even thogh the general direction of Asian politics seems to tend toward what I've described avbove, IMO.

Who will see it this way? I don't think it will be the people you count.

I suggest that it will be seen in the region as a shift in the balance of power. China rising, USA waning. The message could not be clearer IMHO.