South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

[Bill Moore]

Tensions in the South China Sea continue at a slow boil, but most likely will ratchet up quickly after the international tribunal rules.

http://www.voanews.com/content/beiji...e/3318147.html

Beijing Warns Critics Over South China Sea Dispute

As China awaits an international arbitration ruling over its claims to almost all of the South China Sea, Beijing issued a warning Friday to its critics, stating that the more they challenge its position regarding disputed territories in one of the world’s busiest waterways, the more it will push back.

This remains to be seen,

"I think the U.K., Australia, and other Western countries are willing to stand firm on their principles on this matter. I am doubtful they will back China or even remain silent," Glaser said, adding that "China needs the U.K., Australia and other nations just as much as they need China."

The increasing military tension is well documented in the media and on this thread, less well know are the social movements pushing back against China's coercion, to include one in the South China Sea.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...ilebasic?pli=1

Peace Fleet: A Social Movement Approach to the South China Sea Dispute

KAI is part of the registered nonprofit group called Pilipino, and recently started a new international group called Sea Access by International Law (SAIL). KAI activists hope that SAIL will encourage students from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, and Japan, as well as other international supporters, to join.

Given China’s disputes with South Korea, India, and the United States, these countries could provide activist recruits as well. China has occupied part of India in the Himalayas called Arunachal Pradesh, and provides political, diplomatic, and military support to North Korea, which regularly threatens South Korea, Japan, and the United States. China also threatens Japan’s Senkaku Islands.

A number of China-focused nonprofits are likely to enter into mutual support with KAI/SAIL, including Scholarism in Hong Kong, the Sunflower Movement in Taiwan, Human Rights in China, Liberty in North Korea, Students for a Free Tibet, Uyghur Human Rights Project, Arunachal Civil Society in India, and Crossing Borders.

As for China pushing back as they have promised to "continue" doing, we're now seeing more reporting, perhaps boosting, in the media on their fishing fleet militia.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-so...-idUSKCN0XS0RS

The training and support includes exercises at sea and requests to fishermen to gather information on foreign vessels, provincial government officials, regional diplomats and fishing company executives said in recent interviews.

"The maritime militia is expanding because of the country's need for it, and because of the desire of the fishermen to engage in national service, protecting our country's interests," said an advisor to the Hainan government who did not want to be named.

China continues to demonstrate that it is a bully that is unwilling to operate within international law and norms. It is clear that China's economic rise is not accompanied by political maturity or a willingness to contribute to regional stability. China doesn't provide credible support to nations in the region when there is a natural disaster, although they have the means to do. China is destroying the environment, and it is probably impossible to estimate the impact of destroying the reef in the South China Sea, and the associated loss of viable fishing areas in the most populous area in the world on food security. This doesn't even address their use of economic, paramilitary, and military coercion in the region, and no doubt they will behave this way beyond the region if the global community doesn't push back.

We can make hard choices now, or harder choices later.

[AdamG]

Beijing is in a somewhat bipolar position; they want to 'be' America but they're not strong enough to fill the vacuum if Pax Americana fumbles on the five yard line (or gets clotheslined by her enemies) and the global economy gets knocked into a tailspin.

If they let this game in the Spratlys go too far, they either get hammered by the US (not good for their investments) or they prevail (also not good for their investments, since that'd be killing the golden goose).

So between this thread and the China-as-a-superpower thread, Beijing is balancing their international image projection versus a mad scramble to harden their internal economy (in case the US self-implodes), all while doing damage control on the growing social stress fractures.

Let's see how that works out for them, Cotton.

Meanwhile,

China scrambled fighter jets on Tuesday as a U.S. navy ship sailed close to a disputed reef in the South China Sea, a patrol China denounced as an illegal threat to peace which only went to show its defense installations in the area were necessary.

Guided missile destroyer the USS William P. Lawrence traveled within 12 nautical miles (22 km) of Chinese-occupied Fiery Cross Reef, U.S. Defense Department spokesman Bill Urban said.

The so-called freedom of navigation operation was undertaken to "challenge excessive maritime claims" by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam which were seeking to restrict navigation rights in the South China Sea, Urban said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-so...-idUSKCN0Y10DM

Also, oops.

A navy spokesperson, Liang Yang, said in a statement that the jet, belonging to the East Sea Fleet, crashed into a sewing machine factory while conducting a night training session at about 7.30pm.

The pilot ejected from the aircraft safely and nobody was injured in the incident, according to Liang.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/socie...-eastern-china

We can make hard choices now, or harder choices later.

I think that die is already cast.

[AdamG]

The Pentagon has concluded that an intercept of a U.S. military aircraft by Chinese fighter jets last week over the South China Sea violated an agreement the two governments signed last year, a U.S. defense official said on Thursday.

The Pentagon findings contradict what the Chinese Defense Ministry said earlier in the day.

Last year, the United States and China announced an agreement establishing rules of behavior to govern air-to-air encounters and creating a military hotline.

"The review of the Chinese intercept of one of our reconnaissance aircraft has assessed the intercept to have been unsafe based upon the Memorandum of Understanding with China and International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards," U.S. Defense Department spokesman Bill Urban told Reuters.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp

[AdamG]

Spotting a large vessel off the coast of Sarawak state in March, officers on a Malaysian patrol boat were shocked when it steamed towards them at high speed, blaring its horn before veering off to reveal "Chinese Coast Guard" emblazoned on its side.

According to an officer from the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA), Chinese Coast Guard vessels have been sighted several times before around the South Luconia Shoals, off the oil-rich town of Miri. But such an aggressive encounter was a first.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp

[Bill Moore]

http://warontherocks.com/2016/06/the...-21st-century/

The Choice for Asia in the 21st Century
Sen. John McCain

Editor’s Note: The following is adapted from Sen. McCain’s speech as prepared for delivery at RSIS in Singapore before the start of the Shangri-la Dialogue.

Southeast Asia faces a choice. As a frequent visitor to this region, I have lived to see things I never thought possible. Singapore has transformed itself from a small port town to a global financial hub. The Philippines is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Burma is on a path to democracy. Indonesia has become an emerging regional leader. America and Vietnam have laid down the burdens of history and are building a new economic and security partnership. I could go on.

I like the way Sen McCain framed the choice here, this is a narrative that is factual and one China cannot compete with.

The choice for Southeast Asia in the 21st century is not between the United States and China, as some would make it out to be. Instead it is a choice between two futures—one in which the rules-based order is upheld and its benefits expanded to ever more people in Asia, or a darker future that resembles the past in this region and the world, where might makes right, and bullies set the rules and break them.

A major test will come later this month when the Permanent Court of Arbitration is expected to rule on the case filed by the Government of the Philippines concerning disputed areas of the South China Sea. There is no principle more fundamental to the rules-based order than the rule of law.

[AdamG]

BEIJING, July 5 (Reuters) - China should prepare itself for military confrontation in the South China Sea, an influential Chinese paper said on Tuesday, a week ahead of a decision by an international court on a dispute there between China and the Philippines.

Tensions have been rising ahead of a July 12 ruling by an arbitration court hearing the argument between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea in the Dutch city of The Hague.

In joint editorials in its Chinese and English editions, the state-run Global Times said the dispute, having already been complicated by U.S. intervention, now faces further escalation due to the threat posed by the tribunal to China's sovereignty.

"Washington has deployed two carrier battle groups around the South China Sea, and it wants to send a signal by flexing its muscles: As the biggest powerhouse in the region, it awaits China's obedience," it said.

China should speed up developing its military deterrence abilities, the paper added.

"Even though China cannot keep up with the U.S. militarily in the short-term, it should be able to let the U.S. pay a cost it cannot stand if it intervenes in the South China Sea dispute by force," it said.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp

[Azor]

From Jamestown:

With the announcement that the Permanent Court of Arbitration will rule on July 12 on its case between the Philippine and Chinese governments regarding China’s territorial claims in the South China Seas, tensions in the area are coming to a head (Court of Arbitration, June 29). On July 3, China’s Maritime Safety Agency released a notice to mariners declaring a sizable part of the South China Sea off-limits between July 5–11 for military exercises (China Maritime Safety Administration, July 3; see map). The off-limits area is more than 86,000 square kilometers, larger than South Carolina. China has also increased its tempo of public statements and rebuttals regarding the court case in recent months (China Brief, June 21).