Green on Blue: causes and responses (merged thread)

[TheCurmudgeon]

Really? They think they won so they double their efforts to kill, including kill themselves?
Must be some non-European logic, for sure.

I have to agree with JMA on the logic thing. The way we think does not matter.

But I also doubt that the announced withdrawal was an important factor. The increase in forces and in mission is probably the largest single factor. If it was, then nothing really changed. The increase is simply mathematical. Increase the number of trainers and Afghans being trained and you increase the number killed.

[Entropy]

It seems pretty clear to me that this is the beginning of the end in Afghanistan. Once the election is over, expect the timetable to be moved up to next year.

[TDB]

It seems pretty clear to me that this is the beginning of the end in Afghanistan. Once the election is over, expect the timetable to be moved up to next year.

Definitely. Strong hints the British drawdown with be far more rapid than previously stated. Soon enough it will be like rats fleeing a sinking ship.

[carl]

Perhaps this belongs someplace else, but here I place it for now.

What if Taliban & Co. and the Pak Army/ISI continue to push this? The object of that would not be simply ejecting us from Afghanistan but ejecting us ignominiously. That would serve the greater purposes of humiliating the west, furthering the Islamo-fascist agenda and stoking the megalomania of the Pak Army/ISI. They could impose upon us conditions in return for not placing us in a position whereby we would be besieged in our big bases, have to run a gauntlet to get out and still end up leaving a lot of materiel.

I say this because as others have noted, the rate at which these attacks have occurred has increased very substantially in recent months. With that in mind, I don't think it beyond imagination that Taliban & Co may be behind that. If so, they could stop it. Even if not, they still could put a big damper on them by saying they would not take in the killers. But we would have to give something to them and their Pak Army/ISI masters.

The recent killing of 4 and wounding of 2 SF guys makes me think this may be progressing beyond pissed off ANSF guys getting some back. Apparently 6 ANP officers were involved somehow in a fight with the SF. One died and the others fled and haven't been found. If it was group attack that is very significant and makes me think Taliban & Co are starting maybe to direct things.

So to me, the US has been backed into a corner and some very decisive things will have to be done. We can't just meander along and pretend that things are going ok enough because 'look how well the spec ops night raids are going' (facetiousness alert, but only partly). We will have to do some actual things. Some things that come to my fevered mind are-basically surrender to Taliban & Co and the Pak Army/ISI, or permanently cut the Karachi supply line and publicly recognize Pak Army/ISI as the enemy and take things from there, or find and bump off Mullah Omar, or publicly partner with India or just turn the whole thing over to them, or a combination, or ten things I haven't thought of.

The point is muddling along won't do anymore. If I was Taliban & Co and Pak Army/ISI I would push this for everything I could get out of it which will force us to act.

[JMA]

I have to agree with JMA on the logic thing. The way we think does not matter.

But I also doubt that the announced withdrawal was an important factor. The increase in forces and in mission is probably the largest single factor. If it was, then nothing really changed. The increase is simply mathematical. Increase the number of trainers and Afghans being trained and you increase the number killed.

I wonder how many officers and NCOs studied this prior to deploying to Afghanistan?:

Passing It On: Fighting the Pushtun on Afghanistan’s Frontier By General Sir Andrew Skeen (1932)

And that brings me to the tribesman’s patience. These folks have nothing to do but to watch for an opportunity. If it doesn’t come one day, it is bound to come the next or the next, or, at any rate often enough to make it worth their while to watch for it. And if, when it comes, it looks like being too costly, they are perfectly ready to put it off till a better chance comes. Remember, they have had no work to do, no camp to get to, they have range upon range of hill to screen them for as long as they choose, and night has no terrors for them. They will return to the job day after day without anyone having an inkling of their presence, and then when the real chance comes they seize it like lightning. – page 12

I have watched YouTube videos of some training. I note that ISAF personnel are being used to train and mentor Afghans who are of an age and rank who probably would not be allowed to train own forces at that level. I would suggest that the tension would begin to build up right there. The Golden Rule for training troops outside your language/cultural/ethnic/racial milieu should be on the basis of Train-the-Trainer. We just don't seem to learn.

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[carl]

I have watched YouTube videos of some training. I note that ISAF personnel are being used to train and mentor Afghans who are of an age and rank who probably would not be allowed to train own forces at that level. I would suggest that the tension would begin to build up right there.

That is a very good observation, one of those human factors things that are so important and so often overlooked. I never thought of it of course.

[JMA]

That is a very good observation, one of those human factors things that are so important and so often overlooked. I never thought of it of course.

The sheer volume of training they are attempting probably means that anything vaguely approaching decent training is quite impossible when it appears some of the participating ISAF countries have training problems of their own.

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