COIN case: LRA Lords Resistance Army

[carl]

You can find the last ICG report on LRA there: http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/region...-end-game.aspx

M-A: I read this report last week and it seemed to conclude that the hunt for the LRA has slowed because Uganda, South Sudan, Congo and the CAR are just not that interested anymore. There is no real political payoff in getting the LRA. The only people hurt are locals in out of the way areas and nobody cares much about them. That seemed to be the situation the report concluded.

My question is this, will the US effort actually motivate those four countries or will they just string us along as long as possible until the money stops? One reason I ask this may be is that on another site a guy insisted that the LRA was still active in Uganda. He said he was there recently in an official capacity and that is what the Ugandan army told him. That is contrary to everything I've read over the past few years so I wondered if the Ugandans told him that so more of the money would be spent in Uganda rather than where the LRA actually is.

In other words, do think we are going to be had in this deal?

[M-A Lagrange]

Hello Carl and David,

Sorry I did not see your questions before, was little busy.

Carl,
I would say that I am extremely cautious about LRA presence in Uganda. I am even more cautious if the intel is coming from the Ugandan Army. My personal opinion on that is that Uganda is worried about the oil fields in the western part of the country. DRC elections have already triggered some reactions from ADF and Mayi-Mayi near Beni and Museveny is worried about how far this could go. Also South Sudan mess is to be watched and is a good justification to serve the old LRA threat story.

David,
Let’s be clear: LRA is not a priority for any of the government involved. LRA are killing people and not threatening economical interest… Therefore the LRA hunt will goes on until an unlucky guy catches Khony…
Basically catching Khony would be a financial loss for Uganda. Catching Khony will take time, basically my bet is is that it will take as long as US are willing to fund that “adventure”. But delaying it is a mistake according to me as it will allow LRA to regain a territory and therefore a real problem. I do not think that keeping LRA at non vital threat level is a good option. But, as said previously in the post, keeping LRA active is usefull for Kampala.

[carl]

Here is link that goes to the LRA Crisis Tracker 2011 report.

http://www.lracrisistracker.com/medi...ity-brief-2011

LRA activities are down, especially recently, thank God.

They say their reporting is much better as of late because of distribution of HF radios to towns and villages in the threatened areas.

[M-A Lagrange]

ESO Hunts Ugandan Rebels In Diaspora
Uganda’s External Security Organisation (ESO) has started the hunt for suspected combatants and sponsors of exiled rebel group Uganda People's Front/Uganda People's Army (UPF/UPA), Chimpreports.com can reveal.
The hunt was launched following the recent arrest of former US marine-turned fugitive Nix Bongomin in Northern Uganda where he was recruiting rebels to overthrow the government of President Yoweri Museveni.
...
The trio has reportedly been active UPF members, a rebel group which had started putting in place bases in Western Uganda in 2008.

http://www.chimpreports.com/index.ph...-diaspora.html

As long as some one is hunting Kony for real… All the rest of US and Uganda services can chase wild goose in the dark...

[M-A Lagrange]

As AFRICOM is communicating its difficulties in hunting down Kony but also highlight the supposed effect of this hunt on LRA activity capacities:

US Defends Ongoing LRA Mission Amid Criticism
The top U.S. special operations commander for Africa, Brian Losey, said U.S. officials are already seeing a decrease of what he calls the “lethality of LRA activities.”
At a recent event in Washington, top State Department official Karl Wycoff echoed those remarks.
“In the last several months, scores of people have defected, escaped or been released from the LRA’s ranks. This is a welcome development,” said Wycoff.
Wycoff also made clear why President Barack Obama decided last year to send about 100 U.S. troops to help African countries battle the LRA.
“It is intrinsically an organization that needs to be removed, eliminated, reduced, so that it is no longer a threat to regional security and human security,” said Wycoff.

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/...140395413.html

Critics of UPDF are rising from all over:

Uganda: UPDF in Kony Hunt Accused of Rape, Looting
A new report accuses UPDF of massive plunder of resources like diamonds and timber in the tiny and war-wracked Central African Republic (CAR) where the army is pursuing bands of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA).
The dossier, titled 'The Lord's Resistance Army in the Central African Republic' and authored by the New York-based Social Science Research Council (SSRC) in December 2011, alleges that some Ugandan soldiers operated a prostitution ring, raped and infected Congolese refugee girls in CAR, with the deadly HIV.
However, army spokesman Col Felix Kulayigye, on Thursday described the report as the usual banter from self-seeking organisations attempting to account for money from donors.
"That report is unfortunate. It's from masqueraders who are trying to earn bread from our blood and sweat. The UPDF is one of the most disciplined forces in Africa and we are pro-people. Anyone can check our record", Kulayigye said.
In November 2011, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group also accused the UPDF of plundering timber, gold and diamond not only in CAR but also in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

http://www.observer.ug/index.php?opt...ies&Itemid=116
(I highly recommend to read the whole article)

And here is a link to a short video to remind us why and how US are involved.
STOP KONY:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4MnpzG5Sqc

[carl]

That video on the LRA has had over 11 million, that's million, hits in just the last few days I believe. My 14 year old nephew heard about it on Facebook and now is interested.

It is quite a phenomena. It is good if it helps thing along but it disturbs me a little. The attitude of the video is something along the lines that this has gone on long enough and we are going to do something about it now. And what they are going to do is wear bracelets and go viral and speak out without fear. The object of all that is to make "them" get Kony this year. It seems like the makers of the video are as interested in patting themselves on the back as doing something about Kony.

It is an interesting happening.

[Dayuhan]

It seems like the makers of the video are as interested in patting themselves on the back as doing something about Kony.

The makers of the video are of course not in a position to do something about Kony... drawing attention and building awareness is all they can do. If that involves a bit of patting themselves, so it goes... human nature.

One wonders, though, if they realize what's likely to be involved in getting Kony. If it were all that easy it would have been done already.

[M-A Lagrange]

The makers of the video are of course not in a position to do something about Kony... drawing attention and building awareness is all they can do. If that involves a bit of patting themselves, so it goes... human nature.

One wonders, though, if they realize what's likely to be involved in getting Kony. If it were all that easy it would have been done already.

Here are some critics of the video

How a Ugandan warlord went viral in 24 hours
So how did Mr. Kony become a trending topic on Twitter in the United States, Europe, Canada and Australia in 24 hours? The answer: A U.S. based charity; A compelling video; And a savvy social media campaign that sought to influence key cultural personalities to propel its cause and engage new audiences. The group Invisible Children's aim is to make Joseph Kony famous, so that in 2012 he can be finally brought to justice. The group asks supporters to join a pledge that reads "Joseph Kony is one of the world's worst war criminals and I support the international effort to arrest him, disarm the LRA and bring the child soldiers home." The Globe and Mail

Kony2012 video goes viral, and so do concerns about its producers
[...] Visible Children has collected a number of these critiques. The non-profit's financial statements show that only 32% of the $8.6m it spent last year went to direct services. Meanwhile Foreign Affairs magazine has accused the organization of "manipulat[ing] facts for strategic purposes." Charity Navigator has given Invisible Children a two-star rating in accountability out of a possible four. Critics point out that the campaign calls on the public to pressure the US to continue working with the Ugandan military, an organisation that has its own record of abuses. The Guardian

Kony 2012 campaign criticized for dumbing down conflict
Critics have accused the campaign of using colonial language and advocating for military intervention in Africa. With the explosion on social media sites of an activist viral video, Kony 2012, exposing the misdeeds committed by Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) leader Joseph Kony, critics have reacted to the campaign denouncing it as "colonial" and reminiscint of Kipling's "White Man's Burden" argument. Globalpost

Lord's Resistance Army: After long silence, the US-tracked rebels attack
The deadly Lord's Resistance Army goes on attack again in Democratic Republic of Congo, but coordinated efforts by regional armies and the US military has put them on the run. CS Monitor

Some of those critics are legitimate some are... Less

[TDB]

I did think the KONY12 video dumbed down, I guess it had to. The complexity of the conflict may be beyond many peoples comprehention. The few pieces I saw criticising it were a little outdated and illinformed. I think if you're going to set up a campaign like this, you need to give everyone all of the facts and allow those to do the talking.

[carl]

The makers of the video are of course not in a position to do something about Kony... drawing attention and building awareness is all they can do. If that involves a bit of patting themselves, so it goes... human nature.

One wonders, though, if they realize what's likely to be involved in getting Kony. If it were all that easy it would have been done already.

If they do realize that, they don't say it in the video. They kept speaking of "arresting" Kony. They avoided saying anything about having to kill him. Nor did they say anything about walking around in the forest for weeks at a time. They stressed training and technology provided by those 100 Americans and they especially stressed really really wanting to see him got in 2012.

It is an interesting video from a cultural point of view. I watched it because I wanted to see what got my nephew so exercised so fast. From the standpoint of learning anything about the LRA beyond that they are really bad, it isn't so good.

[davidbfpo]

When I looked there had been 34m views of the KONY12 video; I'd be intrigued how many views were of the total video.

Following a comment on Kings of War going viral KoW has been rather busy today, today's comment:http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2012/03/inv...ect/#more-6538 and yesterday's:http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2012/03/lla...us-psychopath/

KoW recommends this background article, from November 2010:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...-lra?page=show

Incidentally the UN's covert operation in 2006, using Guatemalan Special Forces, are mentioned:http://www.thedailybeast.com/newswee...rd-target.html

[TDB]

When I looked there had been 34m views of the KONY12 video; I'd be intrigued how many views were of the total video.

Following a comment on Kings of War going viral KoW has been rather busy today, today's comment:http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2012/03/inv...ect/#more-6538 and yesterday's:http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2012/03/lla...us-psychopath/

KoW recommends this background article, from November 2010:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...-lra?page=show

Incidentally the UN's covert operation in 2006, using Guatemalan Special Forces, are mentioned:http://www.thedailybeast.com/newswee...rd-target.html

The Daily Beast article gave some really good background info. The failed Guatemalan attack must have really boosted his prowess, making people believe that he really does have super powers and a connection to god.

[ganulv]

The Daily Beast article gave some really good background info. The failed Guatemalan attack must have really boosted his prowess, making people believe that he really does have super powers and a connection to god.

And Imad Mughniyah. And Jesse James. Some folks think Tupac’s still out there, too. Not trying to make light of a vile human being or a horrible situation, it’s just that people will believe a lot of things is all I’m saying.

[davidbfpo]

FP Blog has a good article, the author has spent sometime in Uganda and a torrent of responses:http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/...licated_things

[carl]

Something occurred to my cynical side about this video. It is coming out, hopefully, late in the LRA game and if Kony is killed this year or next, the producers of this video will be able to use that to their advantage. They can enhance their influence in various circles because they will almost certainly take some of the credit. Professionally they already have a lot of cachet just because of the number of hits it has had.

[JMA]

I did think the KONY12 video dumbed down, I guess it had to. The complexity of the conflict may be beyond many peoples comprehention. The few pieces I saw criticising it were a little outdated and illinformed. I think if you're going to set up a campaign like this, you need to give everyone all of the facts and allow those to do the talking.

I was Youtube view 63,644,267 and watched it all.

They need to get this guy.

If in the process some guys make a lot of money then as they say ... "that's America".

It is of course scandalous that it has not been a high enough priority for the Ugandan government, regional groupings and the African Union before Obama committed 100 odd yank soldiers to the mission. Well done Obama!

So now we will see how many 'kids' sign up for this initiative and if they are able to produce sustainable activism to press this issue home.

I hope they get the guy.


PS: After posting this I refreshed the Youtube page and saw the number had climbed to: 65,051,329 ... amazing!

[carl]

I was Youtube view 63,644,267 and watched it all.

They need to get this guy.

If in the process some guys make a lot of money then as they say ... "that's America".

You're right.

It is damned interesting all those you tube views and I wonder what it portends for the future.

[TDB]

I was Youtube view 63,644,267 and watched it all.

They need to get this guy.

If in the process some guys make a lot of money then as they say ... "that's America".

It is of course scandalous that it has not been a high enough priority for the Ugandan government, regional groupings and the African Union before Obama committed 100 odd yank soldiers to the mission. Well done Obama!

So now we will see how many 'kids' sign up for this initiative and if they are able to produce sustainable activism to press this issue home.

I hope they get the guy.


PS: After posting this I refreshed the Youtube page and saw the number had climbed to: 65,051,329 ... amazing!

I agree. Some of the comments against are listing all the other problems Uganda has. Well that's the problem if you're going to be a single issue charity, you're only going to target that one issue.

[JMA]

I agree. Some of the comments against are listing all the other problems Uganda has. Well that's the problem if you're going to be a single issue charity, you're only going to target that one issue.

Sometimes it takes the initiative of outsiders/kids/whoever to shake the professional politicians awake and to force them to take action.

In my era Band Aid (1984) - run by a bunch of long haired gits - turned 'business as usual' on its head. Magnificent work.

The spark of humanity still burns in the young.

I am always reminded by what Cynthia Ozick wrote (in relation to the Holocaust):

Indifference is not so much a gesture of looking away--of choosing to be passive--as it is an active disinclination to feel. Indifference shuts down the humane, and does it deliberately, with all the strength deliberateness demands. Indifference is as determined--and as forcefully muscular--as any blow.

[davidbfpo]

A well written article that starts with:

Ending the violence and insecurity perpetrated by the Lord's Resistance Army is more about empowering civil society and developing local solutions across many countries than about keeping US military advisers in Northern Uganda. The youthful, Western attention brought to the issue by Invisible Children and #Kony2012 is not in itself a solution.

It ends with:

Achieving a peaceful conclusion to this conflict involves efforts aimed at ascertaining and closing the supply lines of the LRA. It also entails ‘taking the governments’ back to these under-governed places, addressing the development and social challenges in these neglected areas.[22] Civil society can play a critical role at all levels in promoting dialogue to promote engagement, understanding and reconciliation.

Despite enormous odds, support for a strategy based on protection and engagement is widespread among those who bear the brunt of the conflict, civil society and communities across the region. They recognise that building a just and lasting peace takes time. This is a job that requires support for local approaches and peacebuilding initiatives rather than imposing more external firepower.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/kennedy...flict-with-lra

The author works for:

Conciliation Resources is an independent organisation working with people in conflict to build peace and prevent violence

Their website is:http://www.c-r.org